Fascinating watching the politics and reaction since Thursday - a few thoughts
The bounce for politicians currently in power in England, Scotland and Wales from vaccines not surprising and reminds me of Falklands effect for Thatcher
Increasingly apparent Conservatives no longer a broad church because of the full adoption of UKIP nationalist values IMHO the Tories can no longer claim to be the party for those with economic and social liberal attitudes
Actually no party for such people albeit social liberal views in most of the other political parties so Tories the reactionary party
BUT key point not sure Conservatives will be seen as economic liberals either over next 5 years - likely to become party of high tax and spend plus reactionary values
Why the change to being high tax Party - levelling up agenda needs to deliver something prior to GE 2024/25
Easiest way to level up is through economic growth but #brexit has reduced growth over next decade by 5% plus over so to level up for Red wall Government will need to > public spending here which means tax the South/business to support the North - but history says Ministers
Trying to spend to success fails (Hessletine an exception)
Not saying levelling up is wrong but many traditional Tory voters don’t like paying tax let alone more - #values challenge Pleasing red wall infuriate Tory voters in South shires
Implication from surveys is Red wall voters want manufacturing jobs etc but not easy in a world where China can do things much cheaper and UK’s strength in manufacturing is highly computer skilled Business will therefore locate to places full of graduates (cities!!!)
There will be many other #values challenges over next few years - for instance easy way to partially solve levelling up is to get less people to commute or city dwellers to relocate and work at home from towns or rural areas BUT we know Johnson seems to dislike home working
At this stage I suggest again you read @J_Bloodworth Hired as this highlighted the job/wealth challenge so eloquently to me Even more than my @LivingWageUK involvement
Similarly #migrants increase economy & therefore tax revenue for levelling up But where do they come from given Red Wall seem to like Patel’s harshness Could be EU citizens perhaps friends from Hong Kong/India etc Maybe students at University but again these are outside red wall
33% of school age children now come from an ethnic minority background but this is only 10% in North East whereas it is majority in London What will this mean for red wall - as ethnic minorities become wealthier they relocate This is changing nature of home counties but will
Red wall remain culturally different in experience/mindset
Education is key to long term levelling up BUT results in places like Redcar at GCSE/A level very disappointing compared with KS2 Arguably ethnic minority parent expectations drive teachers/pupils to raise standards but if red wall not yet keen on > ethnicity Govt challenged
You would expect 3-5m EU citizens in UK to get citizenship and the vote over the next decade - not sure that this is being factored in by political hacks Can’t see this group being fans of Vote Leave gangThoughts @DavidGauke @benatipsosmori @jamesjohnson252
Final challenge is digitalisation and competitiveness
Post #brexit and pandemic most businesses looking at ways to digitalise/automate away clerical and administrative roles - why have a person when a chatbot is more reliable and provides consistent answers
Many companies looking to outsource more Finance and IT to India - Sunak’s family will be very happy
How will this lost of roles land in Red Wall - will Boris try to outlaw offshoring
Politics will be fascinating over next decade as key for success in Britain will be education and the areas that want to be levelled up suffer most on this metric
So ends my ramble
PS - I will be ignored as I am reading Whistling Vivaldi by Claude Steele as recommended to me by @JohnAmaechi - it is a book for anyone who wants to broaden their knowledge and understanding
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