Tweet

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

More from @AnshelPfeffer

Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר

@AnshelPfeffer

10 May

A few quick thoughts on the ongoing escalation right now. First, Hamas surprised everyone. In hindsight the way they piggybacked on events in Jerusalem to grasp the leadership, now that elections are postponed makes sense. But no-one in Israel truly expected them to do it now.>

Since Summer 2014 the consensus in Israel has been that Hamas is “deterred” and Sinwar is too focused on consolidating his hold on Gaza to risk another major escalation. That assessment came toppling down at 18:01 when the sirens wailed in Jerusalem. Sinwar is ready to gamble.>

It would be presumptuous predict what Hamas’ endgame is at this point. They’ve grasped the mantle of defenders of Al Aqsa, humiliated the Israeli government (the scenes of the Knesset plenum being evacuated will be useful PR) mad challenged Fatah. But where do they go from here?>

Read 12 tweets

Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר

@AnshelPfeffer

8 May

Police in Jerusalem doing absolutely everything wrong since the beginning of Ramadan and as a result we’ve the worst clashes in the city since 2017. The easy conclusion is that Netanyahu wants an escalation to disrupt the formation of a new government without him. That’s not it.>

Behind Netanyahu’s warmongering image is a cautious and risk-averse politician. It’s no coincidence there’s been no intifada on his watch. He talks tough but in E Jerusalem and the West Bank he’s avoided major escalations. The police’s heavy-handedness now isn’t on his orders.>

If anything, what we’re seeing in Jerusalem is a result of Netanyahu’s absence. He’s too preoccupied with his imminent political demise. Meanwhile the top cops, commissioner, Jerusalem district commander and public security minister are all inexperienced blundering bullies.>

Read 8 tweets

Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר

@AnshelPfeffer

24 Mar

Netanyahu on stage with Sara. Forced smiles. He doesn’t look very happy. He’ll proclaim victory anyway, despite not having a majority by now in any of the updated exit-polls.

Netanyahu: “We’re here tonight to say to you thank you from the depths of our hearts (long list of functionaries). Tonight we’ve made Likud the largest party in Israel by a very large margin (basic maths on margin between Likud and Yesh Atid) “the media doesn’t like to say this”

Netanyahu: More self-congratulatory talk on how “we brought vaccines for everyone” and how “we need to continue standing up to Iran and to the ICC” and “bring more peace accords with Arab states, peace for peace, not peace for uprooting Jews” so far sounds like his stump speech.

Read 8 tweets

Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר

@AnshelPfeffer

23 Mar

A few more thoughts on the exit-polls. Netanyahu just tweeted thanking Israeli citizens for “a massive win for the right and the Likud under my leadership.” He may have won, but he knows it’s still to early to call. He needs to establish a victory narrative as soon as possible>

Netanyahu’s majority may grow in the actual results, but there’s still a considerable chance it shrinks and all it takes is one less seat for his bloc and it’s stalemate again. And even if he has his majority, it’s a coalition of 61 headaches where every MK has a gun to his head>

The first thing Netanyahu will do after his victory speech (actually, he’s already trying to do it now) is to find more sources of support, beyond his “bloc”. He needs some leeway if he doesn’t want to blackmailed daily by his “natural partners”, he needs some news ones. But who?

Read 10 tweets

Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר

@AnshelPfeffer

23 Mar

Channel 11 exit poll
Likud 31
Yesh Atid 18
Shas 9
UTJ 7
Yamina 7
New Hope 6
RZ 7
Lieberman 7
Labor 7
B&W 7
Meretz 6
Joint List 8
Ra’am 0
Netanyahu bloc = 61 majority

Channel 12 exit poll
Likud 31
Yesh Atid 18
Shas 9
UTJ 6
Yamina 8
New Hope 6
RZ 7
Lieberman 6
Labor 7
B&W 7
Meretz 6
Joint List 9
Ra’am 0
Netanyahu bloc = 61 majority

Channel 13 exit poll
Likud 33
Yesh Atid 16
Shas 8
UTJ 7
Yamina 7
New Hope 5
RZ 6
Lieberman 8
Labor 7
B&W 8
Meretz 7
Joint List 8
Ra’am 0
Netanyahu bloc = 61 majority

Read 10 tweets