three weeks ago, when Ontario Science Table was in full volume doomcasting stratospheric exponential COVID, I surmised that a Gompertz top was forming and that there were grounds for optimism, becoming increasingly optimistic as doomsters became gloomier
my surmise that mid-April was Gompertz top seems to have been prescient. Ontario cases are now less than 50% of top of Gompertz curve, declining rapidly against all expectations of Ontario Science Table. Hospitalizations following with lag.
3/ in mid-Apr, Ontario govt @fordnation mostly resisted demands of public sector privileged academics for more draconian lockdowns and/or additional burdens on the local businesses upon whom entire economic burden of lockdown has been imposed, though they
4/ though the Ont govt added some pointless bans on outdoor activity e.g. golf which had negligible impact on COVID, but, as compared to policies demanded by Science Table academics, at least didn't further devastate economy, as academics proposed.
5/ the academics and media were furious at @fordnation for not further devastating local businesses.

But Ontario was at Gompertz top and cases have fallen dramatically. Science Table projected up to 17000 daily cases under the sort of "weak" lockdown govt continued.
6/ in contrast, today's case count was 2073, well on downward slope of Gompertz curve. Less than half of cases predicted by Science Table under the far more draconian measures that they advocated.
7/ Ontario is also benefiting from much increased Pfizer vaccine availability as US vaccine demand has been increasingly satisfied. Ontario has relatively low caseload compared to US states. I expect broad vaccination to really do well on our caseloads.

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More from @ClimateAudit

11 May
imagine a citizenry which places a "high premium on data analysis and empiricism". Or which believes that "science is a process, and not an institution". Or which expects data used by policy-makers to be analysable.

Such citizens have long been hated by climate "community",
2/ the appropriate response of institutions should be to make the data available, improve their analytic and statistical skills, acknowledge errors graciously.

More or less the opposite strategy to the climate "community".
3/ we've also learned over past few years that institutions expect citizens to set aside their expectations of a "high premium on data analysis and empiricism" when it comes to diktats ("assessments") by intelligence community.
Read 4 tweets
8 May
@TuckerCarlson had segment on JiaQi Bao's proposal that Hunter Biden appropriate the cash in Hudson West III after its parent company CEFC became insolvent, but closed by saying that they didnt know the outcome. Outcome was known before election.
2/ a Nov 3 article in American Conservative theamericanconservative.com/articles/exclu… pointed out that all the money in Hudson West III was embezzled by Hunter and Uncle Jim.
3/ the article even drew attention to JiaQi Bao's proposal to Hunter to appropriate the money (thp unfortunately her name and colorful association with Hunter wasn't discussd.)
Read 4 tweets
4 May
on Apr 16, as Science Table proclaimed doom, Ontario govt adopted annoying but irrelevant outdoor rules. To universal condemnation by Ontario media and COVID establishment for being inadequate and irrelevant. @fordnanation was right not to over-react to SciTable doomcasting.
2/ as on previous occasions, Ontario Science Table's projection was wildly wrong. In only 2 weeks, actuals are at 50% of levels predicted under the draconian measures not adopted and 25% of predictions under "weak" (not exactly) measures that @fordnation continued.
3/ although cases are a fraction of Science Table predictions, hospitalizations and ICU remain high (in Ontario terms). While SciTable like to point to some prior forecasts of high ICU levels, such forecasts were tied to forecasts with MUCH higher case numbers than experienced
Read 6 tweets
29 Apr
on Jan 12, Ontario Science Table projected up to 41,000 COVID cases by Feb 14, but only 1500 ICU beds needed. In recent third wave, we're up to almost 900 ICU beds with less than 10% of the cases.
2/ despite pompous Sci Table self-advertisement, their projections, up until the last few minutes, gave no hint of ICU to case ratio that we're presently experiencing.
3/ here's a way of looking at forecasts that intrigues me. There was almost linear relationship between Jan 12, 2021 projections of cases and ICU on any given date - Feb 14 values shown as points below and joined. Black +s show actuals.
Read 5 tweets
27 Apr
Ontario COVID academics are in full throttle partisanship against Ontario govt for being insufficiently draconian in placing burdens and worse lockdowns on struggling private sector (while public sector privilege paychecks uninterrupted) But looks like Gompertz top on third wave Image
I'm pretty optimistic about May cases.

Actual cases have fallen sharply for a few days after a 2-week plateau - very Gompertz - and are already less than 50% of Science Table Apr 16 predictions, despite govt not caving to most extremist academics - to their fury. Image
Also, last year, cases, deaths and hospitalizations all fell sharply in May and June in Ontario as people get more fresh air and sunshine. Hopefully this year as well.
Read 9 tweets
25 Apr
in Ontario, politically partisan scientists e.g. Fisman, Stall, vehemently criticize provincial vaccinations while singing hosannas to federal govt. Unscientifically, they never show comprehensive data (which isn't as transparent as desirable.) Here are administered and received.
2/ on April 5+- day or so, Ontario received catchup shipments for first quarter orders plus large shipment of slow moving AZ. Shipment in subsequent 3 weeks have been MUCH lower.
3/ Ontario received no/negligible vaccines for 3 key weeks in February during which, by coincidence or not, third wave got a foothold and had to lay off vaccine workers as no supply. Since then, distribution increased rapidly and exponentially. Last week reached 130K weekdays
Read 4 tweets

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