Thread by @ClimateAudit

three weeks ago, when Ontario Science Table was in full volume doomcasting stratospheric exponential COVID, I surmised that a Gompertz top was forming and that there were grounds for optimism, becoming increasingly optimistic as doomsters became gloomier

my surmise that mid-April was Gompertz top seems to have been prescient. Ontario cases are now less than 50% of top of Gompertz curve, declining rapidly against all expectations of Ontario Science Table. Hospitalizations following with lag.

3/ in mid-Apr, Ontario govt @fordnation mostly resisted demands of public sector privileged academics for more draconian lockdowns and/or additional burdens on the local businesses upon whom entire economic burden of lockdown has been imposed, though they

4/ though the Ont govt added some pointless bans on outdoor activity e.g. golf which had negligible impact on COVID, but, as compared to policies demanded by Science Table academics, at least didn't further devastate economy, as academics proposed.

5/ the academics and media were furious at @fordnation for not further devastating local businesses.

But Ontario was at Gompertz top and cases have fallen dramatically. Science Table projected up to 17000 daily cases under the sort of "weak" lockdown govt continued.

6/ in contrast, today's case count was 2073, well on downward slope of Gompertz curve. Less than half of cases predicted by Science Table under the far more draconian measures that they advocated.

7/ Ontario is also benefiting from much increased Pfizer vaccine availability as US vaccine demand has been increasingly satisfied. Ontario has relatively low caseload compared to US states. I expect broad vaccination to really do well on our caseloads.