Geography is the chessboard of History, new article out!
We think we’re taught History. But we’re really taught Propaganda. We underestimate how deep the impact is of geography.
Take this:
Do you see it?
The light nights show where there's more development & wealth. It's consistently in the green areas (plains), especially close to rivers
No wonder the Po Valley in the North is so rich
Remember this next time you hear somebody say Northern Italians work harder than Southerners
Ok now look at this intently.
Now try to answer: Where was the historic Hungary / Austro-Hungarian empire?
Yes, around that green area surrounded by mountains. The (Pannonian) plain, crossed by the Danube, is fertile and easy to move around. The mountains defend it.
OK let's look at Greece. What do you see?
First, what do you NOT see: any big green area! It doesn't have plains. That made it very very hard to feed and unite large populations. That's why it was a series of city-states.
What they did have was water. Much faster and cheaper to transport things. So everything Greeks did was mediated by water. This is why a much better way to understand Greece in Antiquity is this:
That's why Greece had city-states on both sides of the Aegean sea (which seemed super weird to me as a kid)
With very few & small fertile plains, Greece didn't stand a chance. Their productivity had to be lower. It was condemned to be overwhelmed by neighbors with better land (first Romans, then Byzantium, then the Ottomans)
Good to remember when Germans say the Greek are lazy
So:
- Plains are good
- Rivers are good
- Sea is good
- Mountains are bad for productivity, but good for defense
Navigable rivers are much better than the sea:
- Little salt in the water, + fertility, + usability for drinking water
- Rivers service 2x the land area of a coastline (coasts only have one side, 2 for rivers).
- No tides in rivers ➡️ Easier to control and maintain
- No storms
Let's look at Europe now:
Southern Europe --> Full of mountains
Northern Europe --> Full of plains and navigable rivers
You don't need a genius to guess which one will eventually be richer.
Remember that when Northerners accuse Southerners of sleeping the siesta & partying
And I'm just scratching the surface here. But it gives you a sense of how much History and the Economy have been driven by Geography, and much less by all these tales of genius conquerors.
My last article goes deep into this, and is the first of a series on how what has driven the evolution of History so far, and what will drive it in the future. Sign up for more! unchartedterritories.substack.com/p/geography-is…
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Here are the Top 25 mistakes from COVID management, from least to most important: Thread 🧵
25. Infection parties
Before vaccines, we should have left people who wanted to be free to get infected in a safe environment.
24. Immunity Passports
Passed an infection? Vaccinated? Can't get one? No more restrictions for you.
Any argument against it I've heard so far is either properly worried about details that can be fixed, or has some high-level concern that is not rooted in reality.
23. Not Knowing Who to Trust
Credentialed experts and non-expert nobodies: both groups have people who got it extremely right and extremely wrong. That meant ppl (and politicians) didn't know who to pay attention to
As vaccination ⬆️, we will go out again and see ppl we haven't seen in a long time
Those conversations can be awkward. And many ppl hate small talk. How can we avoid that? With questions that get you close fast. Here are a few, backed by science & adapted to a post-COVID world🧵
Light starters: 1. Given the choice of anyone in the pandemic world, whom would you want as a dinner guest?
2. Would you have wanted to become famous during the pandemic? How?
3. What was a “perfect” lockdown day for you?
4. When did you last sing to yourself? To someone else?
5. For what in your life do you feel most grateful?
6. If you could change anything about the way you were raised, what would it be?
7. If you could wake up tomorrow having gained any one quality or ability, what would it be?
Climate Change is a coordination issue: Many of us want to do something about it, but it's hard to coordinate to put pressure on those who can actually have an impact.
Here's how it could work: 🧵
EG, GOVERNMENTS 1. Vote
- Ppl publicly commit on the blockchain to vote the most climate-friendly candidate
- Candidates for president of national governments are independently rated on their climate stance
- That rating is fed into the chain
- Ppl receive a notification 2 days before elections on who to vote & how many others committed
- Incumbents are independently rated on how much they abide by their climate electoral promises
- That influences the recommendation of whom to vote for in other elections
1.5M futile COVID deaths in the West.
They compare to 18k in the Asia-Pacific region.
Who will be accountable?
Thread🧵
Those who apologize for Western countries say: We had it so much harder here. Did we?
For every disadvantage the West had, we can find countries in the East who did really well.
Sure, being an island and having a young population helps. But that doesn't determine the outcome
See? For example Indonesia and Philippines are similar in COVID advantages to countries like Vietnam, Thailand or Mongolia, except Id and PH were islands, yet did worse.
Also, Britain and Ireland are quite similar to countries liek Japan or South Korea, and yet here we are
I'm launching a newsletter, Uncharted Territories!
Have you noticed how it feels like the world is mutating faster and faster? Like we can’t keep up with what’s happening.
I believe this is just the beginning. Thread 🧵
I believe that some of us alive today will live forever. Maybe you, reading this.
I believe AI will make our lives unrecognizably better. It will also push many into poverty.
2/12
I believe wealth will keep concentrating in the hands of a few, especially the hands of builders of aggregators.
I believe nation-states will drift into irrelevance.
I believe geography will matter less and less.
3/12
It touches on many important topics: What's trust and who to trust, government failures, human biases, clashes of values, intellectual inconsistencies...
She interviewed me over email. It's hard to condense that kind of information. I had much more content in my email, so I pasted the entire interview in this article: