Thread by @Usherwood

There are only 3 options here:
- try to make the NIP work
- try to negotiate an alternative
- try to walk away from any negotiated system

All are very problematic for the UK (and only a bit less so for the EU)

1/

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1392190491484119043

Making NIP work as it stands needs UK to either make big advances on implementation, or to fall back on dispute settlement mechanisms to test whether its more 'flexible' interpretation is viable (spoiler: almost certainly not)

2/

Finding an alternative sounds great, but it's not as if no one has been looking for such a thing for several years now.

NIP isn't great, but that doesn't mean it's not the least worst option.

And that's even before Q of whether either side want more negotiating fun

3/

And walking away isn't possible under norms of public international law without good cause, none of which obviously apply

So it'll be a legal nightmare

Plus all the immediate disruption on the border

4/

So Frost is right to say there are problems, but the path of least resistance remains the UK stepping up to its commitments and obligations under the NIP

As always

/end