Today marks the nearly conclusion of the EU's ratification of the Trade & Cooperation Agreement
There needs to be an exchange of letters tomorrow, so the treaty can enter fully into force on Saturday, 1 May
So, done. right?
2/
There needs to be an exchange of letters tomorrow, so the treaty can enter fully into force on Saturday, 1 May
So, done. right?
2/
Not so much
At the risk of repeating myself, 'Brexit' contains a number of different elements
Longer version with graphics:
3/
At the risk of repeating myself, 'Brexit' contains a number of different elements
Longer version with graphics:
https://twitter.com/Usherwood/status/1030380052930809858?s=20
3/
Shorter version: UK not only has to bring old relationship with EU to an end (i.e. wrap up membership), but also get to a new relationship
I'd argue we've done the former, but not the latter
4/
I'd argue we've done the former, but not the latter
4/
Withdrawal Agreement, Jan 2020, resolved most outstanding liabilities of old membership, notably on finances and citizens' rights
But Irish dimension was only semi-resolved, with Protocol that required extensive implementation activity to be effective
5/
But Irish dimension was only semi-resolved, with Protocol that required extensive implementation activity to be effective
5/
That implementation is far from complete, even leaving aside the wider Q of whether Protocol can stick at all, given state of UK/NI debate (not helped by COM's error on Art.16 this spring)
But that's not all that remains
6/
But that's not all that remains
6/
TCA might now just be coming into full legal effect, but again lots and lots of implementation work to be done, stretching over several years at least
Plus TCA itself pre-programmes some negotiations, quite aside from general reviews
7/
Plus TCA itself pre-programmes some negotiations, quite aside from general reviews
https://twitter.com/Usherwood/status/1344957001542103040?s=20
7/
So neither WA nor TCA is in a relatively stable state right now, and will stay in that uncertain status for at least as long as the period we've covered since #EURef
As and when a new UK govt takes office, we might see yet more negotiations happening IMHO
8/
As and when a new UK govt takes office, we might see yet more negotiations happening IMHO
8/
I did once make a slide of a Brexit timeline that ran from the dinosaurs to interstellar space travel
I exaggerated
But not that much
9/
I exaggerated
But not that much
9/
In sum, Brexit is not 'done' and won't be for some good long time yet
/end
/end
PS @AnnaJerzewska has a very good thread on one aspect of this on-going project
https://twitter.com/AnnaJerzewska/status/1387700628768628736
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