Bull markets don't die of old age; they are murdered by errors. What kills them are the policy mistakes made by Central Bankers, elected officials + Politicians of all kinds.

One person's "taking away the punchbowl" is another person's murder weapon...
And a 30% pullback in individual names after a 50-100% run up feels like normal volatility to me...
.@michaelbatnick has this just right:

"Second-level thinking is back. With the benefit of hindsight, investors should have been paying attention to the expectations that were baked into some of these stocks."

theirrelevantinvestor.com/2021/05/11/liv…
We looked at this previously but its worth revisiting:

ritholtz.com/2018/08/does-i…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Barry Ritholtz

Barry Ritholtz Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ritholtz

13 May
LONG OVERDUE: McDonalds is raising wages 10% to find & retain new hires. Low end wages have lagged for decades.

ritholtz.com/2021/05/findin…
Recall $MCD was a giant Welfare Queen whose McResource line helped employees enroll in various state/local assistance programs.

Backlash began when a recording was released with them advocating full-time employees sign up for food stamps + welfare.

ritholtz.com/2013/11/americ…
My solution to getting $MCD + $WMT + others off the public dole was to raise minimum wages. That raised howls from the usual suspects.

5 years ago, we began a real world experiment that would once +for all tell us if min wage increases were job killers

ritholtz.com/2016/03/157921/
Read 17 tweets
7 May
NFP:

-Strengthens Biden stimulus proposals
-Embarrasses those yelling about inflation
-Big increase in wages = more hiring
-"All models are wrong, but some are useful"
-BLS models are especially noisy
-NFP = overrated economic indicator
-"Nobody know anything"
I would add that assembling this data during lockdown/pandemic is exceedingly difficult. Lots of variables errors introduced into April.

May/June/July reports now hold potential for huge upside surprise
More details for those who want to dig in

ritholtz.com/2021/05/about-…
Read 6 tweets
29 Apr
Today in depreciation (not):

Buy a 2012 Audi R8 Convertible w/a proper 6 speed manual shifter + the big(ger) V10 engine. Then put only 3800 miles on it.

You paid $176,400 MSRP - one of 423 cars spec'd this way - today gets you $203k, a gain of 15.1%.

bringatrailer.com/listing/2012-a…
Run that $176,400 an inflation calculator since 2012 and its $203,508 in 2021 dollars.

Therefore this car sold for its MSRP on an inflation adjusted basis nine years after its original sale.
I keep wondering how much of these prices are being driven by supply constraints related to semiconductor chip shortages for new automobiles.

wsj.com/articles/globa…
Read 4 tweets
16 Apr
Sorry to tell David Einhorn this, but absurd valuations for silly penny stock companies have been around for years.

To wit, the $100 million Grilled Cheese Food Truck circa 2015. @mattmiller1973 @tomkeene @lisaabramowicz1

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
If you took that as your sell signal, you left some money on the table: Markets have more than doubled since then.

ritholtz.com/2015/02/would-…
The key point here: There are always examples of silly valuations, especially among penny stocks, a hotbed of fraud, self-dealing, manipulation and nonsense.

My 2015 grilled cheese truck lesson? Be wary of drawing broad market conclusions from illiquid microcap scamcos
Read 9 tweets
7 Apr
Friend with Covid became a long hauler, suffered with shortness of breath, uneven heartbeat, lost sense of smell since last March.

Just got vaccinated + it helped substantially: long-haul symptoms improved: Energy returned, aches vanished, even sense of smell returned.
It was the Pfizer vaccine:

"PFE shot. I'm still feeling great a week into this recovery. Truly miraculous."
This is the latest I found on it . . .

cnn.com/2021/04/03/hea…
Read 5 tweets
29 Mar
Last week saw the one year anniversary of the 2020 Covid Crash lows, accompanied by a lot of bad and misleading commentary.

A quick thread with observations & criticisms as to how so many missed the mark.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

1/
12 months after March 23, 2020 lows the S&P 500 Index gained 75%.

Why is the time it takes the earth to complete one orbit around the sun relevant to stocks?

Add a month to 12 month time period, and the gains crash to ~15%.

75% vs 15%!! What a difference one month makes!

2/
Also worth noting: When the price of an asset falls 34%, it requires about a ~52% move higher to get back to breakeven.

Said differently, 2/3rds of that rally was simply getting back to where the markets where before the crash.

3/
Read 14 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(