485k total doses, 26% up on last week, so the recovery from the BH continues, with the 7D total now up to 3.5m.
1st doses of 351k are just 6% up (unusually, less than the 2nd dose increase), but takes the 7D total ever closer to 1m.
1/5
2nd doses of 350k are up 36%, so another better day, albeit not at the level of 2 weeks ago.
The 7 day total is now back over 2.5m, which if maintained should be enough to keep up with the required pace for the next few days.
2/5
Wales 1st doses are settling down at 85% for the fifties, about 5% lower than the sixties. To date the forties have just hit 70% - hopefully that will continue to increase though.
Second dose progress seems to be concentrated in the 65-59 group currently.
3/5
Second dose take-up (ie of those who had a 1st dose) has increased by around 2% in the upper age groups since I last reported, and is now at 95%. For HC staff it's slightly lower at between 85% and 90%.
All in all, for PG 1 to 4, these are very good figures.
4/5
Finally, good news for those in their late thirties in England, with the BBC and others reporting that bookings will open at 7am tomorrow for 38 and 39 year olds (and presumably 37 3/4 too).
5/5
Note, first doses should read 135k. Thanks to @ianandbike for the spot.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
I nearly missed today's 2 weekly antibody update from @ONS, so here's a brief summary. It's fairly disappointing though, with no material increases, and the modelled curves dipping.
E increases from 68.3% to 69.3% (65.6%, 73.9%)
W is up from 61.0% to 63.2% (58.8%, 68.3%)
1/
S is up from 57.8% to 59.2% (54.8%, 64.4%)
NI is up from 62.5% to 63.5% (57.6%, 71.2%)
Of note the modelled curve for NI is increasing, although the increase from the last update is no greater than the others.
2/
It's interesting that even the unvaccinated age groups are showing nearly 50% prevalence. Further up, the highest age groups are now rising again, as the 2nd dose takes effect, but lower down we're now seeing the dip that we saw earlier in the highest groups.
A summary thread of the latest #REACT survey from @imperialcollege on England infectivity.
The headline is very good news, prevalence has halved since the last round, falling from 0.20% to 0.10%, with R at 0.9 between the rounds.
Round 11 is between April 15 and May 3.
1/
115 positive samples were obtained from 127k tests. Note the slightly lower number of tests this round, which the report notes is due to a lower response rate, suggesting a lower interest in participants as the situation improves.
2/
Between rounds, R is put at 0.9, though slightly higher at 0.94 within the round. This is consistent with recent SAGE views, and not unexpected as the lockdown restrictions are gradually eased.
The latest @ICNARC report on intensive care activity is out. With the situation now much improved now it enables a good comparison of the two waves (W1/2). A thread here on behalf of @COVID19actuary.
W2 patient admissions of 25,543 were well over twice that of W1 (10,951).
1/
Despite starting W2 much more slowly, London rapidly accelerated and ended up being the worst affected again in terms of population size, contrary to those who early on were suggesting that herd immunity from the first wave was protecting it.
2/
W2 developed more slowly, and extended over a longer period so the peak bed occupancy for W2 was not much greater than W1, but high volumes (and thus pressure on staff and resources) were sustained for a much greater period.
Recent levels were higher than last summer too. 3/
How soon to first dose all adults? We can look back around 11 weeks to D1 volumes to predict how many D2's are needed, and deduct that from an assumed supply - we'll say 3.7m for now.
The chart shows future D1 volumes - apart from 1 week it should gradually increase.
1/6
If we assume c85% of under 50s take-up the jab then we need to reach around 47m to have given everyone who wants it a first dose.
That will take until around 28th June. Any doses after that (above the grey line) can be used to rapidly accelerate second doses if appropriate.
2/6
If supply is less than 3.7m pw what difference does it make? Even dropping it to 3.3m only pushes it back two weeks, to July 12th, still well ahead of the govt's target of the end of July.
3/6
We've now passed 50m total jabs, although today's total (excl Wales) of 255k is another disappointment, down a quarter on last week.
The 7D total continues to fall, to 3.4m.
As yesterday, the shortfall is all in the second doses.
1/5
171k for 2nd doses is down a third, and we are now barely ahead of my 11 week line. The 7D total of 2.6m is the lowest for a fortnight.
What's the prognosis for the next couple of weeks though?
2/5
The yellow line of 1st doses in Feb is now starting to fall, and will drop gradually from c3.1m pw to 1.9m over the next 4 weeks. That should mean it's a bit easier to keep up with the 2nd dose requirement, and hopefully give a bit more leeway for 1st doses too.