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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士 Profile picture
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12 May, 5 tweets, 5 min read
An all-star panel on 🇨🇳🇷🇺 by @CarnegieBeijing featuring @paulhaenle, @andrewsweiss, @SpivakV and @PKU1898's Guan Guihai 关贵海. This nuanced discussion is a good starting point to unpack the increasingly important relationship between Moscow and Beijing. carnegieendowment.org/2021/05/12/chi…
2/ In addition to the panel, it's worth checking out some of the recent pieces in growing body of @CarnegieEndow's works on the topic. Here @SpivakV (@CarnegieRussia alumni, ex-@UC_RUSAL, now with @Control_Risks) unpacks what 十四五means for 🇨🇳🇷🇺econ ties carnegie.ru/commentary/841…
3/ Here @eugene_rumer & @dicktfirefly explore whether 🇺🇸 can drive a wedge between 🇷🇺🇨🇳. Spoiler alert: 🙅‍♂️❌⛔️, but do read their nuanced reasoning. carnegie.ru/commentary/839…
4/ Yours truly dissects some of the challenges posed to 🇪🇺 by a thickening 🇨🇳🇷🇺 axis in this recent lengthy piece: carnegie.ru/commentary/841…
5/ Finally, to follow everything that the global @CarnegieEndow family writes on the topic (there is a LOT, and more cool research on the way!), look no further than the webpage of our #PaxSinica project carnegie.ru/specialproject…

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More from @AlexGabuev

Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士 Profile picture
3 Mar
THREAD 🧵
Tectonic shifts in Russia's trade and exposure to global centers of economic gravity are happening quietly, but surely. In 2013, before Crimea and Western sanctions, 🇷🇺🇪🇺trade volume was 5x of 🇷🇺🇨🇳. Just 7 years after, trade with EU is only 2x bigger than with China. 1/
2/🇪🇺share of 🇷🇺 trade:
2013 - 49.4%
2019 - 41.6%
2020 - 38.5%
3/ 🇨🇳 share of 🇷🇺 trade:
2013 - 10.5%
2019 - 16.7%
2020 - 18.3%
Read 7 tweets
Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士 Profile picture
29 Jan
THREAD
It's hard to predict how many people will show up to January 31 rallies in Russia to support @navalny. But the risk of violent incidents has gone up significantly, and one of the key factors here is choice of location for Moscow protest. Let me explain it quickly 👇
2/ Team Navalny has chosen Lubyanskaya and Old Squares in Moscow. That's where HQ of FSB and the Presidential Administration (PA) are located. According to organizers, the logic is that @navalny was poisoned by FSB squad, and the decision was likely taken by the Kremlin.
3/ Why does this choice of location create additional risk of violence and incidents compared to Pushkinskaya Square a week ago? There are three main reasons.
Read 9 tweets
Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士 Profile picture
27 Jan
THREAD
What is overlooked in analysis of #RussiaProtest after @navalny's arrest? It's sophistication that the Kremlin has developed in addressing such threats, and lack of realistic strategy by Putin's opponents. Let's put together some unpleasant facts 👇 foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/26/put…
2/ Of course, it's hard not to be impressed by @navalny's and his family's courage, as well as by energy and scale of protests on January 23. Good summary by @yaffaesque for @NewYorker here: newyorker.com/news/dispatch/…
3/ @navalny's investigation about Putin's palace (>96 million views now!) and street protests are seen as a serious challenge by the Kremlin, which is visible in heavy-handed crackdown on Navalny's team&family, as @HenryJFoy & @maxseddon document here: ft.com/content/45be9f…
Read 25 tweets
Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士 Profile picture
19 Dec 20
A great read by @AbrahmL in @nytimes on how Russia might win from climate change, and how it can handle potential migration from China. The story has lots of interesting facts, and features Sergey Karaganov's bear skin. Couple of additional points... 1/ nytimes.com/interactive/20…
2/ The article describes 🇷🇺government attitude towards climate change as overwhelmingly positive due to new farming potential in Siberia/FarEast, and cites @RodSchoonover who describes potential "🇷🇺 agricultural dominance" as an "underappreciated geopolitical threat"
3/ Of course, I'm not a climate expert, but based on my limited knowledge talking to 🇷🇺 officials, Moscow's view on climate change is much more nuanced and increasingly focused on risks. Good starting point is President Putin's speech at Valdai: en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…
Read 10 tweets
Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士 Profile picture
10 Nov 20
THREAD
Today's agreement may turn another bloody page in the tragedy that is Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Setting emotions aside, here are couple of quick points on Russian calculus and handling of the issue - and some possible implications for 🇷🇺 standing in the Caucasus.
2/ For many Russian decision-makers, resumption of hostilities in NK was a matter of "when" rather than "if." The Kremlin took note of 2016 war, and the conclusion was that time is on Azerbaijan's side if Baku becomes determined to use force.
3/ This is why Russia had encouraged Yerevan to become more flexible, and has always been clear that the 🇷🇺🇦🇲military alliance covers only internationally recognized Armenian territory, but not NK - a point reinstated very clearly by @MID_RF on 10/31 mid.ru/en/foreign_pol…
Read 17 tweets
Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士 Profile picture
4 Nov 20
THREAD
Is the Kremlin marveling at how the U.S. elections are turning out? Well, it's nuanced, and Moscow isn't sure which candidate is worse for 🇷🇺 interests: @JoeBiden or @realDonaldTrump, as I argue in my @ForeignPolicy blog. Some observations 👇 foreignpolicy.com/2020/11/03/tru…
2/ Before the election, the prevailing view in the Kremlin was that a victory for @JoeBiden would be bad for Russia, because a Democratic administration might impose new economic sanctions on Moscow as punishment for its bad behavior
3/ See this great dispatch from September by @meyerhenry4 & @world_reporter. My own conversations with some 🇷🇺 officials and executives mostly resonate with @bpolitics story (although nobody's sample of GOR contacts is fully representative, of course). bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 13 tweets

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