Excelentes resultados del grupo $TK. Tesis materializándose en línea con lo esperado. ¿Compartís mi feeling de que siempre que presenta bien TK la bolsa y el oil se hunden y nos termina arrastrando? 👇
$TGP. Resultados mejor de lo esperado. El anterior trimestre habían guiado -4M para Q12021 ($0.57eps) y han reportado +0.5M ($0.61eps). Fijado un barco a 1 año + ejercida opción por parte del cliente en otro + spot market-linked otro = 98% de la flota fija a 2021
La reducción de la deuda y la refinanciación a mejores tipos hace que el net income mejore la evolución del EBITDA. Aún así, la deuda total desciende únicamente 42M este trimestre. Esto es temporal y revertirá a lo largo del año: -39M "other operating assets and liabilities".
Buenos resultados, sector en crecimiento estructural que debería de cotizar a múltiplos más altos, excelente flota y backlog, desapalancamiento en línea, dividendo atractivo. Tesis clara, sin sorpresas con Dividend yield 7.8%. Es nuestra "liquidez"
$TNK. Resultados sorprendentemente buenos. Estimábamos una perdida de $0.90 y reportó sólo -$0.65eps. Reduciendo los costes financieros mediante recompra y refinanciación de leasings. Posición alta de liquidez $371M. Hay que esperar al inicio del super-ciclo.
A pesar de que aún quedan algunos meses flojos, los fundamentales para 4Q y adelante son cada vez más alentadores. Demanda de oil recuperando niveles pre-covid, inventarios en el mar normalizados. Sentarse y esperar!
TK. Sin costes SG&A. Buena gestión en Banff que resta menos de lo esperado. Foinaven desaparecerá de balance pronto sin ningún coste por la decisión de BP (incluso espero un pequeño beneficio extraordinario). Hummingbird único activo y sigue generando un excelente cash flow.

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More from @gabcasla

21 Apr
I can't be more excited after having talked three times with different Golar managers this year. I feel new FLNG projects are coming very soon. The market doesn't understand the fantastic and disruptive technology Golar has
We understand market's doubts as Golar hasn’t signed new deals since late 2018, however, the environment wasn't appropriate. Asia LNG was trading between $2 and $6 MMBtu. Despite Golar has the lowest cost solution, I estimate the customer needs LNG above $5 to make good returns
The environment has changed. AsiaLNG is trading above $8 and we are not even in the strong seasonal period. Berstein expects the world to enter into a supply deficit that will grow to 74MTPA which needs to be supplied by new projects that have yet to FID over the next 4-5 years
Read 4 tweets
5 Apr
Amazing presentation from Pax Global on its FY 2020 earnings and fantastic Chairman's speech sharing his ambitious goal. Call transcript avaiable in the following link:

slideshare.net/GabrielCastroC…
The company is beating the most optimistic estimates. Management is excellent. They left China avoiding the commoditization and price war before nobody predicted it and switched to geographies where they add real value. Their moat is growing day by day and the best is yet to come
The management is aware of the shareholders' needs. They know the stock is really cheap and will continue to unlock value through increasing shareholder reward
Read 5 tweets
29 Mar
Pax Global reported amazing results and uploaded the best presentation I've seen since we became shareholders. Market should ease concerns on capital allocation and Long Term prospects from now. As I said many times, despite the huge price increase, the best is yet to come! 👇
Pax reported 0.83 EPS. It increased 46% due to 44% profit increase and 1.2% share count reduction. The adjusted profit is 0.91 EPS. Minor non-cash impairments due to COVID and the stock option are the differences. Notice that Pax stock option expenses are not recurrent like in US
While competitors like Ingenico struggled in 2020, Pax delivered an outstanding growth in all geographies due to its superior Android portfolio and SaaS solution. Moreover,the company didn't rest on their laurels, Pax increased 16% its R&D expenses above of its 15% revenue growth
Read 8 tweets
24 Mar
Bompard llegó a Carrefour en 2017 y diseñó un plan de turnaround desde 2018 a 2022. Los primeros tres años consistían en estabilizar el negocio, recuperar la confianza del consumidor y reorganizar la empresa para prepararla para el crecimiento futuro
La primera fase del plan ha sido un éxito: 1.Confianza del consumidor en máximos (NPS). 2. Reducción de costes, deuda e ingresos por activos non-core superando las expectativas. 3. Aumento de la marca blanca y reorganización de su portfolio. 4. Ecommerce
La perfecta ejecución del plan se ha trasladado en una significativa mejoría reduciendo en más de €1bn la deuda financiera y acumulando un crecimiento de EPS del 25% en los últimos 3 años. Especialmente significativo el turnaround en Francia donde los analistas eran recelosos
Read 7 tweets
19 Mar
$ZIM We started a position last Feb in the integrated shipping liner. We are up >100% in half a month. The IPO failed to generate interest despite its amazing prospects. Oddly, the roadshow was horrible but we quickly understood Zim wasn't interested in raising capital
After our due dilligence reading the prospect and talking with the bookrunners,we didn't understand how that was possible.We regret not buying enough shares, but we felt it was too good to be true. ZIM will be debt free by mid-2021 and was trading below 2x
maritime-executive.com/article/zim-s-…
The company will publish its first results next Monday premarket. We are super optimistic as we believe Zim will make $3EPS in Q420 and around $5EPS in Q121. Consensus is still too far from those figures.
Jefferies: $3.4 Q1
Clarksons: $1.4 Q1
Barclays: $3 FY21
Goldman: $8.6 FY21
Read 4 tweets
16 Mar
¿Aplicar value investing a la renta fija? La mayoría de inversores se pierden un mundo emocionante centrándose solo en renta variable. Nosotros estudiamos la estructura de la empresa y decidimos el segmento más interesante para invertir según el binomio rentabilidad/riesgo. Hilo
La famosa Aryzta. Empresa que analizamos antes de la entrada de Cobas y descartamos inicialmente al considerar que había upside, pero con un riesgo excesivo. Hasta Agosto de 2019 no tomamos posición y en 2020 incrementamos para votar en la junta

Sin embargo, el verdadero dinero lo tenemos en los híbridos (deuda perpetua). Todo se remonta a 2013-2014, en un momento donde la compañía tenía demasiada deuda pero quería seguir creciendo a través de M&A (con poco sentido estratégico como Picard)
Read 12 tweets

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