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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
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14 May, 4 tweets, 3 min read
ONLY VACCINES?—What if we dropped all masks/mitigation, and only rely on vaccines? Well, with 70% fully vaccinated, even if vaccines have 97% efficacy against all transmission (they don’t)—we can only stop Wuhan 1.0 slower strain. Forget #B117/#P1/#B1617.🧵

(HT @GosiaGasperoPhD)
2) However, the math to stop #COVID19 completely changes if we add masks and other public health motivations. Even with lower transmission efficacy vaccines, even with more faster contagious variants—when combined together, vaccines + masks + mitigation can hold back surge!
3) the main leakage with the vaccine only approach is that asymptomatics keep spreading even if vaccines work for severe #COVID19 disease. And it will leak to the vulnerable.
4) That above vaccine math is why we must continue to keep wearing the mask! We can only hold back the faster transmission variants if we both vaccinate and mask until we are well past 80% vaccinated.

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
15 May
Doctors treating patients in India 🇮🇳 have marked a distinct trend during the 2nd wave—#COVID19 now appears to be impacting children more severely. Children and adolescents are now showing more obvious symptoms such as prolonged fever and gastroenteritis.🧵hindustantimes.com/india-news/in-… Image
2) During the first wave, most children remained asymptomatic, and a large number of them went untested because of that,” said paediatrician Dr. Bakul Parekh. “We tested children only when someone in the family had a history of Covid-19.”
3) Over the last fortnight, Parekh, who runs a children’s hospital in Ghatkopar, has admitted six children between 1 and 7 years old to the hospital -- three with severe gastrointestinal infections and fever, and others with breathlessness and fever.
Read 11 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
15 May
HEALTHIER THAN EVEREST CLIMBER? Mount Everest 🏔 base camp outbreak—expedition cancelled after climbers sickened by #COVID19—An American climber & 3 Sherpa guides from a 51-person expedition were evacuated from base camp & hospitalized in Kathmandu Nepal🇳🇵
nytimes.com/2021/05/15/wor… Image
2) “A second wave of the coronavirus is ravaging Nepal, overwhelming its feeble health care system. On Saturday, the authorities reported 8,167 new cases and 187 deaths.
On the peaks, the spread of the virus is unclear, but signs of trouble are growing…”
3) “Starting this month, hundreds of foreign climbers, Sherpas and other support staff have lived at Everest’s high-altitude base camp, preparing for an ascent to the world’s tallest peak.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
15 May
BREAKING—Taipei, Taiwan 🇹🇼 has raised its local #COVID19 crisis rating to Level 3 alert for the first time, after 180 domestic transmission cases. Masks will now be required indoors & outdoors. 🇹🇼 has 23 mil people—first time exceeding single digit average daily cases in a year. Image
2) Under the CECC's four-tier alert system, a Level 3 alert means people are now required to wear masks at all times when they leave their homes, indoor gatherings of more than five people are not allowed, and outdoor gatherings are limited to 10 people.

focustaiwan.tw/society/202105…
3) A Level 3 alert, which has been in imposed in Taiwan for the first time, stops short of a lockdown and goes into effect when more than three community clusters are confirmed in a week or over 10 domestic cases of unknown origin are reported in a single day.
Read 7 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
14 May
KEEP WEARING THE MASK—We card-carrying epidemiologists (with formal doctorate in epidemiology) know what we are talking about. Vast majority of 700+ epidemiologists surveyed says we would keep wearing masks for 1 year or longer. #COVID19 #MaskUp

nytimes.com/2021/05/13/ups… ImageImage
2) “When federal health officials said on Thursday that fully vaccinated Americans no longer needed to wear masks in most places, it came as a surprise to many people in public health. It also was a stark contrast with the views of a large majority of epidemiologists surveyed.
3) “In the informal survey (of professional epidemiologists), 80 percent said they thought Americans would need to wear masks in public indoor places for at least another year. Just 5 percent said people would no longer need to wear masks indoors by this summer.
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
14 May
96% of critical care beds in Osaka Japan 🇯🇵 are full. Hospitals “overwhelmed”.

Olympics in 70 days? 🤷🏻‍♂️ #COVID19

theguardian.com/world/2021/may…
2) Osaka, along with Tokyo and two other prefectures, will remain under a state of emergency called in late April until at least the end of this month, and another three regions are due to join them from Sunday, Japanese media reported on Friday.

3) the vaccine rollout for older people and other at-risk groups is only just picking up speed. About 3% of the population of 126 million have been inoculated so far, amid reports of problems with the vaccination booking system, queue-jumping by local politicians & businesspeople
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
14 May
⚠️BREAKING—Singapore 🇸🇬 returning to lockdown mode for one month as #COVID19 cases rise, many #B16172 variants. Indoor dining suspended immediately. Travel bubble with HK🇭🇰 now unlikely. 31% of Singaporeans have >=1 shot, 22% fully vaccinated. Still surge.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2) 🇸🇬 is returning to the lockdown-like conditions it last imposed a year ago, banning dining-in and limiting gatherings to two people, as a rising number of untraceable virus infections pressures one of the most successful places in the world at Covid containment.

➡️YET STILL!
3) “A pattern of local unlinked community cases has emerged and is persisting,” the statement said. “We need to act decisively to contain these risks as any one leak could result in an uncontrolled resurgence of cases.”
Read 14 tweets

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