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Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
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14 May, 7 tweets, 2 min read
PHE have published a vaccine surveillance report.

Key chart here (colours represent level of confidence in the numbers, not effectiveness)

- Vaccines work (very high level of effectiveness)
- 2 doses better than one
- They're not perfect
Will be good to see effectiveness of 2nd dose of Oxford/AZ when the data is available, and the effectiveness of different vaccines against variants.
Here are the risk communication charts for:
1 dose of either (Pfizer/BioNTech or Oxford/AZ) vaccine
- 2 doses of Pfizer/BioNTech
Great vaccine uptake
Effect on deaths
"PHE estimates to 25 April 2021 based on the direct effect of vaccination and vaccine coverage rates, are that that 9,900 deaths were averted in individuals aged 80 years and older, 1,500 in individuals aged 70 to 79 and 300 in individuals aged 60 to 69 years ...
"... giving a total of 11,700 deaths averted in individuals aged 60 years or older in England"

Excellent. Please get vaccinated and please get your second dose.

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More from @Dr_D_Robertson

Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
14 May
Chris Whitty has said that B.1.617.2 is *more* transmissible than B.1.1.7

(Number 10 press conference)
SAGE have now published their minutes from yesterday's meeting.

The key sentence is here

gov.uk/government/pub… Image
"It is therefore highly likely that this variant is more transmissible than B.1.1.7 (high confidence), and it is a realistic possibility that it is as much as 50% more transmissible. ...
Read 15 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
14 May
The JCVI were very aware of the potential issues with vaccine uptake.

Some quotes from me in the thread below.

Source documents: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
"At the end of last year, as JCVI set out their priorities for who should be vaccinated, the first priority was to vaccinate those most at risk of dying. A secondary priority –one that can be overlooked– included the possibility of vaccinating those at increased risk of exposure. Image
“Since then, we now know that Covid vaccines can reduce transmission. This is great news, and together with the lockdown, cases have fallen significantly.
Read 8 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
13 May
Here are my variants charts for data published on 13 May 2021

**cumulative** chart showing significant increase in B.1.617.2 (orange bold line)

...
Here is the same data on a log chart and including B.1.1.7 (top line)

**cumulative chart**

Significant increase in B.1.617.2 (orange bold line)
And here is the data on a heatmap. Variants of concern in bold/yellow

Very significant exponential-like growth. Clearly a concern given potential move to Step 3 on Monday.
Read 6 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
12 May
A quick overview thread of case rates prior to moving to Step 3 on 17 May.

Overall cases in the UK are at 21 cases per 100,000. Image
Case rates are higher than they were last summer after the first wave and before that unlocking.

Some of this is increase is due to mass testing.

In late June last year, cases in all age groups were under 10 cases per 100,000 (except 80+ where they were 12 per 100,000). Image
Cases now are higher.

If we compare to the extreme situation in January (seen below), things don't look too bad. If we compare to June last year, cases do look relatively high. Image
Read 15 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
7 May
VARIANTS update for the UK from PHE data released today (delayed from yesterday due to the local elections).

P.1.617.2 declared a Variant of Concern (in orange bold on the charts). Significant increase in cases.

Cumulative charts that can be affected by surge testing etc.
Here is the data on an exponential chart.

P.1.617.2 declared a Variant of Concern (in orange bold on the charts). Significant increase in cases. This chart includes the B.1.1.7 'Kent' variant.

Cumulative charts that can be affected by surge testing etc.
Here is the data on a heatmap showing new cases detected each week. Variants of concern highlighted.

P.1.617.2 is around 4.4% of the variant cases.

This ratio was around 2.3% last week (which included all cases to that time recorded last week)
Read 21 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
6 May
There are several reasons why 'India' variants such as B.1.617.2 (in particular) are a concern.

A short thread.
The first is the growth of detected cases.

This is the data from last week. We were expecting this week's data at around 5pm today, but that was delayed, apparently due to the local elections.

Most of these cases were related to travellers. We have since required quarantine for people that have been in India. So this should (in theory) reduce significantly the import of B.1.617.2
Read 13 tweets

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