Thread by @laurnorman

So as another week of #IranTalks is chalked up, here's my feed of the latest from sources. There has been very little progress at all on core issues. One senior source went so far as to say that "nothing is really happening" in the talks, constructive though atmosphere remains-1-

Others a tad more specific that there has been some progress on the language of what's being drafted for return to compliance texts -- language that matters but very much on the details not the core issues. -2-

Strikingly, one area all my sources are agreed on is that the Israel-Palestinian escalation has not affected the talks or the atmosphere. Some will lament that. But it was as true in 2014 with Russia's Ukraine intervention as with the last Gaza escalation that year. These -3-

talks have long had success at insulating them from other issues. Critics will say that is one of the problems with #IranTalks. I'll leave others to judge that. So what does all this mean? I'd said a week ago that hard to see any agreement before May 21 IAEA-Iran deadline. -4-

That's obviously even truer now. But I'm cautious to go as far as others who are saying there will be no deal before Iran presidential election. Sources say they're still not sure. The big core issues could be dealt with relatively rapidly if the political space is there. And -5-

of course the big moves always come last. As senior U.S. official said last week, there's pretty clear vision on what the big, remaining core issues are. The question is the negotiating space. There is definitely western uncertainty on whether Iran top decision makers really -6-

want a deal before the presidential elections under Rouhani. But it's an uncertainty. The honest truth is that among E3 and Washington, no-one really knows. But I keep hearing not to rule out that there is a reasonable chance a final deal could come this month. That said, -7-

the odds are probably leaning against it and that raises the possibility of some kind of political agreement holding progress in place that @wendyrsherman alluded to this week. U.S. officials say no real work has been done on what this would look like yet. But if no change by -8-

mid-next week, that's going to need to be a key focus of discussions if this is going to happen by end May. Obviously @rafaelmgrossi will need to get an IAEA Iran deal extension for that to happen which raises questions about how hard the Agency will be able to push #Iran on -9-

#Iran on safeguards nuclear material issue after June IAEA Iran report is circulated in approx 10 days. My understanding is that IAEA will have another mission in Iran on those unresolved safeguards issues over next few days. So plenty of uncertainty ahead. But...-10-

bottom line is don't rule out a deal before end-month yet and as previous, still believe this is largely a question of when a return to compliance deal comes together, not if. -11-

FOOTNOTES: although we're now in an official non-stop phase of the talks, don't rule out a short break for Iranian team to return to capitals, in which case others will too. That doesn't mean it's over. Also, on sanctions, of course the big fight is over how many and which...-12-

remain but there's still a basic disagreement over how active the US need to be, beyond laying out OFAC guidance and offering advice on that, in getting business with #Iran up & running. One source says Iran wants US to act almost as its business manager. That ain't happening-13-