Thread by @jamewils

I created a map with death per lakh of population (DPL) of Indian States using @MoHFW_INDIA data

Population of as of March 2001 (projected) from National Commission on Population Report, 2019 (Table 8) is used.

Official DPL of various states is quite baffling #Thread

Highest DPL is from Goa (131.88), followed by Delhi (103.27) & Maharashtra (64.70)

DPL of Bihar is 3.04, followed by UP (7.47), Telangana (7.76) & Madhya Pradesh (8.18).

This huge disparity between DPL shall be analysed with anecdotal evidence now before us recently.

Take first Delhi, though Delhi recorded 2nd highest DPL, many activists as well as media outlets bring how Delhi tried to suppress the death numbers.

Latest story is from @the_hindu where they allege that 4500 numbers are missing from official data thehindu.com/news/national/…

Another is an old story from @ThePrintIndia, dated 15 May 2020, where it is alleged that the actual deaths are more than 4 times the official figure
theprint.in/india/delhi-ha…

Many activists alleged that Delhi death numbers are more than 50% than the official data.

Civic authorities too questioned the official figures along with many other leading media outlets.

But till Delhi overwhelmed with COVID, no one paid any attention to these.

Now come to the low DPL states like Bihar with a DPL of 3.04 & UP with a DPL of 7.47!

No one paid attention to the abysmally low official data of UP till the crematoriums swelled and the Govt covered them with sheets.

Brave regional media journalists started reporting about the dead bodies in holy rivers and huge pile of bodies covered in sand in the banks of rivers.

This should be applauded because the retribution from the Government is beyond all limits.

bhaskar.com/local/uttar-pr…

Now look at the map again. Two States bordering UP shall be looked closely. Uttarakhand with a DPL of 40.56 & Chattisgarh (39.30) . One is a BJP ruled one and another is a Congress one but why UP numbers are 1/5th?

Chhattisgarh shown better management in the Northern States.

Of course, Delhi borders UP & Haryana too. All of them shown much higher DPL than the UP.

Journalist @Benarasiyaa shown us the pathetic state of public health system in UP. Also @BBCWorld & @CNN shown us shocking visuals from there.

All these anecdotal evidence points that UP undercounts its death toll and the actual death toll may be at least 5 to 6 times than the official figures.

Also understand that UP holds 17% of the India's population with one of the poorest health infrastructure.

If anyone want to believe the DPL of 3.4 from Bihar, then there is no need to read this #thread further.

Its neighbours West Bengal shows 13.39 & Jharkhand shows 11.52 DPL.

If you think that Bihar is much superior than both its neighbours, I rest my case here.

Take the case of Madhya Pradesh with a DPL of 8.18 where both Maharashtra with 64.70 DPL & Chhattisgarh with 39.30 DPL is bordering it.

How can this data from MP can be taken for face value? Do anyone seen anything extra ordinary happening there other than Vyapam?

Now come to the vibrant Gujarat with a DPL of just 12.95 while its sister state Maharashtra has 64.70.

Now we seen that the death certificate issued in similar period was 65,000 more than earlier period. It indicates the actual death toll is 6.5 to 7 times than the official data

I am skeptical about Rajasthan's data of 8.35 too, as its bordering states Haryana, Punjab and even Gujarat shows more numbers.

Then comes Telangana which is a state always believed in maximum opacity of data

Telangana's DPL of 7.76 shall be compared with Maharashtra (64.70), Karnataka (32.70), Chhattisgarh (39.30) & Andhra Pradesh (17.56).

What is making Telangana to have a low DPL than its neighbours? Ponder.........

Hon'ble High Court came heavily on Telangana Govt and said them that "don't fudge the numbers".

I leave it here for you to draw your conclusions about Telangana numbers!
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/dont-fud…

Another magical number is shown by Odisha Government, which shows 5.21 DPL, while Chattisgarh (39.30), Andhra Pradesh (17.56), West Bengal (13.39) & Jharkhand (11.52) borders them.

I read this thread about Odisha recently & it makes sense

https://twitter.com/uttirna96/status/1392383591783362560?s=20

Many activists like @Charakan and journalists like @george_TNIE questioned even Kerala's official figures, which is believed to be one of the health infrastructure and maintain a continuous data flow from the beginning.

See this @BBCIndia story
bbc.com/news/world-asi…

Karnataka and Bangalore stories are more horrifying at present. Read this story and look at Karnataka's DPL of 32.07

newsncr.com/national/coron…

Tamil Nadu's new CM told his officials not to fudge the #COVID19 data and report the actual numbers.

Now look at their 22.72 with lots of salt.

newindianexpress.com/states/tamil-n…

Please read as:

Population projection for 2021

@sritara had done an article in @frontline_india quoting Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and making a suggestion that India's death numbers will be 3 times more than the official numbers.

frontline.thehindu.com/cover-story/in…

With the pouring anecdotal evidence I now think @sritara estimate is on a low side.

I will go with the estimate provided by @ashishkjha in this thread.

https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1391238136961830914?s=20

Whether we will know the actual #COVID19 death figures?

From day one, our policy was focused on reporting less cases, less tests and suppress fatalities.

Of course, we have been asked to bang utensils & light diyas to scare the COVID.

Data suppression was easy in 1st wave!

We hide the data and boasted about no drains chocked with dead bodies, thanks to a veteran editor.

One health fellow at a think tank said that India disappointed death eaters!

All were banging on low CFR due to data fudging, when the COVID was not so fatal...

But once the #SecondCOVIDWave came like a tsunami, we paid a heavy price for the data fudging!

We never prepared at all. If we had transparent & honest data, we would have created more facilities and gone for universal vaccination on war footing instead of anti-science stupidity

The data is so important for making right policy decisions & managing future pandemics.

What India can do to get the actual data? We can make it through our Census, which will have very specific questions #COVID19 related deaths, framed in consultation with public health experts

Never expect the Government will do that.

We should make a try through the Supreme Court to collect this vital information, which will help our future generation to understand the pandemic in a better manner.

This will be a stretched hope. But let us have hope!

END.

I am collecting more data on fatalities from various regional media outlets and twitter handles.

This #thread will be converted as a blog post soon in jamewils.com