Welp. I figured as much but the visual is pretty striking regardless...
RE NEW HAMPSHIRE: Something’s clearly not right with NH...several folks from there have stated that their data is messed up; they're doing very well but not THAT great.
I mean I find it difficult to believe that they jumped this much in the past day or two...
This graph is from WMUR yesterday...looks like the first & second dose numbers got swapped at some point by mistake?
wmur.com/article/new-ha…
Here's a revised version...I had forgotten to label Indiana in the first version, and I've added a caveat by NH noting that their data is pretty obviously way off.

NH only has 1.36 million residents, though, so correcting the error won't move the needle much.
📣 UPDATE: OK, I think I've found the correct New Hampshire data...it looks like they're actually at 50.3%, or right about even with Rhode Island, based on data from the NH Health Dept's #COVID19 dashboard:
acasignups.net/21/05/16/state…
If so, that puts the R^2 at 0.6404.
FINAL UPDATE: With this, NH drops a bit further yet to 45.5%, but that also makes the R^2 higher: 0.6503
Some folks have complained that the Y-axis starts at 30% as if I'm doing this to mask the true impact. I did it to save space, but here you go...0 - 60%. Doesn't really change anything but if it bugged you, here you go.
Also, some folks ask if this includes kids. Yes, as clearly stated on the color-coded graph, it includes 100% of the population.

Others *complain* because it includes kids since they can't get vaxxed yet. Yeah, I know, but the virus doesn't care about that, does it?
Apparently the CDC already includes DoD, IHS, federal prisons, etc. doses in the state totals, BTW.

I also don't list PR, GU, USVI, Am. Samoa, Micronesia, N. Mariana Isles, Marshall Isles or Palau listed since the point is to the 2020 POTUS election. Those are another ~2.75M.

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More from @charles_gaba

17 May
A reminder that the fate of the ACA could be announced within the next two hours.
Here’s where to follow the mornings announcements:
UPDATE: Not related (beyond the fact that abortion/ reproductive healthcare is always connected to the ACA on some level), but there's already another major SCOTUS news development this morning:
Read 16 tweets
16 May
I'm less concerned by the fact that 44% of Republicans say they refuse to #GetVaccinated than I am by the *consistency* of that percent over time. If it was gradually dropping that would be more encouraging, but it's almost a straight line since December.
I know this isn’t an exact overlap, but if you assume all 44% are those who voted for Trump last year, that’s around 33 million people or 10% of the total U.S. population.
Add the ~50M 11 & younger kids who can’t get vaccinated, the ~10M immunocompromised who can’t, the 4% of Dems & ? Indys who won’t and that’s probably around 30%. Yikes.
Read 5 tweets
15 May
📣 WEEKLY UPDATE: Which COUNTIES have the highest cumulative per capita rates of #COVID19 cases & deaths?
acasignups.net/21/05/15/weekl…
Counties w/highest cumul. #COVID19 *cases* per capita:
1. Chattahoochee County, GA
2. Crowley County, CO
3. Bent County, CO
4. Dewey County, SD
5. Lincoln County, AR
6. Lake County, TN
7. Norton County, KS
8. Bon Homme County, SD
9. Trousdale County, TN
10. Buffalo County, SD
Counties w/highest cumul. #COVID19 *deaths* per capita:
1. Foard County, TX
2. Galax, VA
3. Jerauld County, SD
4. Emporia, VA
5. Hancock County, GA
6. Gove County, KS
7. Gregory County, SD
8. Iron County, WI
9. Dickey County, ND
10. McMullen County, TX
Read 5 tweets
13 May
📣⚠️🚨👀🔥 HEADS UP! The fate of the #ACA & healthcare coverage for 30 million people may be decided this Monday: acasignups.net/21/05/13/heads…
AS A REMINDER, there's basically 4 ways this could go:

1. SCOTUS throws out the case for being stupid or because the plaintiffs have no standing.

This is what SHOULD happen.
2. SCOTUS strikes down the individual mandate itself only, severing it from the rest of the law.

This is the most likely scenario IMO. It would be a bit irritating but would basically amount to the status quo.
Read 7 tweets
13 May
Welp. For good or bad, it's official now.
I, for one, will continue to wear a mask when indoors in public places for awhile, for several reasons.
1. As noted earlier, it'll be impossible to know who isn't wearing a mask because they're vaxxed & who isn't because they're an asshole.

2. That means it'll be impossible for most businesses to enforce a "no mask if vaxxed" policy since there's no official "passport."
3. I'd rather be thought of as "being overly cautious" by half the population than be thought of as "being an asshole" by the other half.

4. My 15-yr old hasn't been vaxxed yet. It'd be a dick move to be at a store w/him and not wear one while he still has to.
Read 5 tweets
13 May
Here's the problem with this:

You go to a grocery store. You're vaccinated, so you don't wear a mask. How the hell is anyone else supposed to know whether you aren't wearing a mask because you're vaccinated, or you aren't wearing one because you're an asshole?
I'm not just talking about getting dirty looks from other customers, I mean in terms of actual *store policy*...how are they supposed to enforce it without an official "vaccine passport" etc?
This is good to hear, but it's going to make the "asshole who refuses to follow store policy" problem 100x worse.
nytimes.com/2021/05/13/hea… Image
Read 4 tweets

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