Reports are of 600 child deaths from COVID-19 in the US, but no clarification of how many children died WITH COVID-19, or FROM COVID-19 (unlike adults, this is a big issue for kids data)
NB: The CDC estimates ~600 child deaths from flu annually
None of this is to minimise the suffering of those unfortunate few children who do become severely unwell with COVID-19, but we must be transparent that this is really very rare
This is a good thing, and we should embrace it
We must also wary of issues with the data
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Despite schools being the only thing open for much of wave 2 in the UK, living w/ children associated with marginal increased absolute risk of COVID-19 infection/hospitalisation, and no increase in death
The study compared hospital records of over 9mil adults <65yrs during wave 1 and wave 2, comparing those who lived with children (split by primary and secondary age) to those who don't
They adjusted for covariates such as deprivation, age, BMI, smoking, etc
2/7
Wave 1: No difference in outcomes, except much lower risk of death for people with children
Wave 2: Tiny increase risk in infection and hospitalisation for those living with children (smaller for young children), but same or lower risk of death from COVID-19 or any cause.
But is this variant especially scary in children? ☠️
Are they suddenly driving infections? 🚗
Is this quadruple worrisome? 😱🚨⚠️
Let's take a look at the evidence
1
b.1.1.7 became of concern initially following a surge of cases in SE England after autumn lockdown
Case trends in children had previously lagged adults by a week or so (because adults drive infection rates), but this surge happened near simultaneously
These numbers are roughly accurate, but do not reflect anything like a comparable scenario to spring
These children are MUCH less unwell, due to a combination of recognising less severe cases, early management, and perhaps a degree of over diagnosis to be on the safe side
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Only a couple of patients per day are even unwell enough to be enrolled in the worlds only clinical trial for this condition, the RECOVERY trial
Very few cases of coronary artery aneurysms, which even after spring resolved for most children over follow up
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