No coiners (most of which are rich CeFi-ers that see DeFi as a threat) are gloating about the decline in cryptoland.

Yes, the casino speculation in cryptos almost demanded this would happened (when and how impossible to predict).

But if you really understand the space, it is a parallel financial system and is now getting this first real stress test. If it makes it through, it would be incredibly bullish.

Today is not the worst day ever (%24h loss). The last such days were March 2020.

What is different now is DeFI was non-existent in those days.

DeFi really took off in June 2020 and was $100B in size at the peak a few weeks ago. So, this is the first real "test" of DeFi.

Will the DeFi protocols "make it?" Will Uniswap, Maker, Compound and the other sites blow up?

So far they have not, and with "on chain analysis" we can watch what is happening real-time. so far, so good.

Watch stablecoins. They are the foundation of the crypto system.

Stablecoins are supposed to trade 1 to 1 with the dollar. As I write

Tether 1.03
USDC 1.01
DAI 1.01…
So they are holding together, more or less.

This episode will not end today but the narrative could quickly become "the system held, it works" and turn into an incredibly bullish story.

Of course, this assumes it actually holds.

Grab the popcorn and watch the show unfold.


• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Jim Bianco

Jim Bianco Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @biancoresearch

10 May
Nothing to act on now ... but worth paying attention too.

The Seychelles is a African country of 97,000 off the coast of Tanzania. It is one of the richest countries in the world. The country is full of expensive cars and high fashion, think Beverly Hills.

Seychelles has FULLY vaccinated over 60% of its population, thanks to its wealth. The country has been using the Chinese Sinopharm and AstraZeneca inoculations.

It leads the world with the highest parentage of a population fully vaxxed.

But here is the concerning part ... Seychelles cases are spiking. Remember the majority of country has been vaxxed

Read 5 tweets
4 May
"Mailed money" has changed the personal income landscape of the US. PI shot up to $24 trillion, 27% yoy. We have never seen anything close to this before.

Wages are the largest component of PI. Econ argue against inflation without wage gains, stimulus has filled that gap.

To further underscore how much this stimulus has meant, the next chart shows that 33.8% of all personal income in the last year was “mailed” from the federal government.

This even exceeds to records set with last year’s CARES Act.

This money is piling into savings. The current savings rate is now 27.6%.

Read 6 tweets
14 Apr
The broader service sector has an impediment that herd immunity/reopening might not solve.

This chart shows the Kastle Indices of the percentage of major metropolitan office usage. It is still at just 25%.

Why do we need to return to an office? How much a week? What is better served commuting in an office everyday versus the way we have it's been done the last year?

This is a nice way to say that comm real estate is in trouble and herd immunity might not fix it.
Airline travel is about 2/3s back to pre-pandemic levels. Leisure travel is near 100% back.

But, if we do not return to the office 8 hrs/5 days business travel is not returning to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon, unless leisure is about to soar to new highs.

Read 4 tweets
13 Apr
Yesterday the March Deficit numbers were reported. The 100 million $1,400 stimulus charts blew out the deficit.

As this chart shows, the last 12-months the deficit was a hard to understand $4+ trillion. As a % of GDP it was an equally hard to understand 19%

How big is this deficit?

The next chart shows the surplus/deficit as a percentage of GDP for more than 225 years. The current deficit is now the second-highest in history. Only World War II produced a larger deficit.

March 2020 hit a milestone of sorts. Only 46% of the rolling 12-month deficit is now financed by taxes (bottom panel).

How did this happen? See the top panel. Spending (blue) has gone vertical and tax receipts (orange) have actually fallen.

Read 5 tweets
6 Apr
A sort of milestone was reached today.

The total value of all cryptos surpassed the value of the US banking system.

Why is this measure relevant? It is an admittedly imperfect attempt to measure the size of the current CeFi system versus the coming DeFi system.

So sticking with this idea, what's next?

Another double and cryptos becomes larger than US Financial Companies (Banks + brokers, insurance, exch, fin cos, asset managers, etc.)

4x rise and Cryptos surpass the value of all global financial companies.

What has driven cryptos to surpass the value of banks? It has been an altcoin rally this year, and especially the last few weeks (bottom panel)

As this chart shows, altcoins are near a two year high as a percent of the total universe.

Read 4 tweets
29 Mar
Powell and Yellen are dismissive of cryptos/DeFi. Dalio thinks it could be banned. Singer/Buffett think it's dangerous.

I fear all of this could lead to the US "sitting this out" as the rest of the world designs a new financial system. This would be a huge mistake ...

3B+ people in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America that would happily embrace a DeFi as the world standard.

But can they?

The number of mobile phone subscriptions in these countries is more than 1 per person, similar to the US/Europe.

They have the tool.

And they have no problem accessing services on these phones.

Americans have little idea how much better service is in the rest of the world, including much of the 3rd world.

The US is 27th in mobile download speeds, 95th in upload speeds

Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!