The eyes of the world are turned towards the Holy Land on the 10th day of a horrific conflict between the Govt. of Benjamin Netanyahu and the Hamas Govt. in Gaza.
This image shows a larger picture of the region, from Cairo to Kampala the full Nile Basin. Source: @NASA Modis.
The 10-day forecasts for North Africa are showing increasing amounts of rain over the Western end of the Sahara Desert. The exception being the @ECMWF model which maintains its disbelief in the concept of #DesertRain.
Here is an animation today from the area where the significant rainfall is forecast.
The Horn of Africa this morning...
And this afternoon as the sun went down.
Today's 10-Day rainfall forecasts for #Ethiopia#GERD and the Horn of Africa more broadly.
Today's 3-Day rainfall forecasts for #Ethiopia#GERD and the Horn of Africa more broadly till midnight Saturday. There is much higher divergence between the models now than we have seen in over the last two and a half months.
In terms of #ArabianStorms it looks as if there was only one today, north of Medina. The impact of the stream of water vapour on central Saudi Arabia is obvious. Wind direction over Oman has reversed, and clouds over the coastal mountains in the East did not produce rain.
Meanwhile today's 10-Day rainfall forecasts for the Middle East are intimating the possibility of light rains over Israel Palestine in the next 10 days. The @ECMWF is the most definite about this showing rain over Lebanon and northern Israel Palestine.
And finally in the rainfall forecast section ultra long range forecasts from three models, GFS, GEFS (16 days) and KMA (12 Days)
In relation to our Bay of Bengal Cyclone Watch it seems this remains a possible. The latest two GFS and ECMWF models are below.
The largely agree on timing of arrival, mid next week, but disagree on intensity. They also about the presence of a low pressure system over Tibet.
On that last point. The remnants of Cyclone Tauktae seem to be streaming through the Himalayas today rather spectacularly.
Meanwhile generally speaking it seems to be expected to be wet across most of the greater Asian continent over the next 10 days.
And a post script, another Atlantic storm is moving in over the UK and Western Europe tonight, where the rainfall continues to be widespread, occasionally intense and very determined.
If @realDonaldTrump chooses to join Netanyahu’s genocidal campaign if he is not obeyed …. he WILL find himself indicted in the international criminal court in The Hague.
And he will then have to make a decision on whether he is willing to remain in the U.S.
@realDonaldTrump Should he proceed as he has intimated that he should now be pursued by protestors everywhere he goes.
There is a lot of concern about evacuations of civilians from Gaza in the flotilla as anyone leaving may not be able to return any time soon. /2
But the moral hazard here is palpable. There are thousands of injured and starving mostly women and children. And we saw the young babies dying in the hospitals in the early stages of this war. /3
More and more naval vessels from Europe and the Middle East are being deployed to protect the Global Samir Flotilla as it moves slowly but surely towards Gaza where it intends to deliver aid and global attention. /1
Attacks from drones on the flotilla have resumed and Israel is presumably responsible for this. It is because of this that naval vessels from Europe are now joining the flotilla to protect their citizens rights of travel in international waters. /2
The escalation appears fairly slow at present and the flotilla is still within Greek waters at present /3
The #Samud #GazaFlotilla is currently sailing across the Ionian Sea towards the island archipelago south east of Athens in the Western Mediterranean. Conditions appear good for this leg that departed from Sicily after leaving Tunisia. The Flotilla set off from Barcelona.
2/ this current leg is 860 kms roughly and lead boats in the 51 vessel flotilla are currently approaching south western Greece. You can follow the flotillas progress here >> flotilla-orpin.vercel.app
3/ After two drone attacks on flotilla boats in Tunisia the flotilla sailed first to Sicily where it was joined by several more boats. And this map shows the path of the flotilla so far. The numbers in the dots indicate more vessels joining #GazaFlotilla