2/ Page 44 deals with the business activities of the New Industries unit.
What is interesting is on addition to the electrolyte plant they are clearly also the funder for the Vametco mini-grid which is currently awaiting license sign off from the regulator.
3/ So not only are they backing electrolyte but also the project that BMN describe in their 11th Nov 2020 RNS as,
"one of the first solar generation project with long-duration storage to be financed, off-balance-sheet in Africa."
BMN go on to say,
4/ "In showcasing the business case for solar plus long duration VRFB solutions, this project will open up significant opportunities for further VRFB deployment."
I suddenly feel a lot more confident about everything S.A. VRFB related and the regulatory approvals needed...
5/ to ensure they are delivered.
What this insight says to me is that arguably the most significant investor in S.A. is not only backing electrolyte production but also the type of projects that will be required to make that plant a success.
6/ This in turn will help make Enerox succeed because they are clearly the VRFB manufacturer in this particular venture.
If they succeed then BMN inevitably will also because they own 25.25% in them and are their vanadium products supplier.
7/ By backing this deal the IDC is saying it's acceptable to back this new technology in S.A. and is demonstrating a clear link between the electrolyte plant and a new mini-grid related VRFB business in S.A.
8/ The IDC's New Industries unit was set up in 2015 and focuses on three things, one being,
"The clean energy solutions industry, with a specific focus on the energy storage value chain"
To date the only clean energy technology that they have invested in is VRFBs.
9/ However, it gets better.
Here now is an exert from the 2019 IDC accounts page 47.
IDC funding in that year used to "test a VRFB for the production of electrolytes and ultimately, should these tests be successful, the assembly and local manufacture of the batteries."
10/ A reminder now of BMNs ongoing strategy as laid out in their Feb 2021 presentation.
"Support of local VRFB manufacture in South Africa"
It's been around a while but now at the very least, we can see who else will likely be investing in it when it comes to S.A.
11/ If so then that places IDC at the core of the electrolyte plant, mini-grid and VRFB assembly.
So effectively the S.A. government.
With the same S.A. government about to sign off regulatory clearance on up to 10MW of self-generation, the stage is set for all of the above.
12/ Mini-grids and self-generation are just one angle. To this, we need to also add the possibility of Eskom BESS contracts.
Here now is the first of three articles that I wrote back in 2018 on the drivers behind VRFB opportunities in S.A.
13/ Some of the links have now been lost but in essence,
The 'South Africa Energy Storage Technology and Market Assessment' was the basis for Eskom delivering the 1,400 MWh BESS project tender.
That market assessment was driven by a steering committee...
14/ that contained all relevant stakeholders including Eskom and NERSA and whose leader was the IDC.
14 months prior to this Market Assessment being published, the IDC signed a co-operation agreement with Bushveld Energy, a company that had only been around c. 6 months.
15/ At the time of signing their agreement, the IDC's Bertie Styrdom said,
"The “most significant mileage” for the IDC, however, is in the backward integration of storage technologies into South Africa’s significant mineral value chain”
16/ Jump forward 5 years and the IDC is helping fund all elements of the BMN energy storage value chain that will ensure high usage of South Africa's vanadium mineral value chain.
But to do so they have to gain regulatory approval and win significant enough contracts.
17/ The S.A. government is also set to directly profit from this value chain (45% ownership in the electrolyte plant alone remember) and have to date not committed to any competitive technology.
Under that scenario what are the chances that VRFBs are ignored in S.A?
18/ What are the chances that regulatory approvals will stand in their way?
What are the chances that Eskom contracts will completely pass them by?
Nothing is a given but as the saying goes it's not what you know but who.
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2/ Here now is the same historical V205 price chart marked up at $9 per lb.
Upon hitting $9 per lb the only time since 1980 that the V205 price has not gone on to spike to at least $11.50 per lb was in 2006/07 but it was coming off a downtrend.
3/ on all other occasions, the price continued higher because such pricing demonstrates a tight market is in play.
On a simple comparison to FeV that equates to a $50 per kg market.
Yes, we need more information on Europe/US prices.
2/ That's now well above my $8 per lb rising trend break out point.
More importantly,
"People in the market has high enthusiasm for inquiries, and big factory is expected to adjust June V2O5 flake next week, and their wait-and-see sentiment increases."
3/ As I have said previously the big factories in China are key here as they produce the vast majority of Chinese V205.
B. 25.25% ownership in Enerox who's 2020 contract wins were c. 65% of what IES achieved and will hold $30m for expansion to production twice the size of IES.
2/ C. 55% ownership of a 200MWh electrolyte plant under construction with the IDC of S.A.
D. Mini-grid project under construction at Vametco in partnership with the IDC with potential to open up localised VRFB production and industrial opportunity.
3/ E. Actively tendering for Eskom BESS projects totalling c. 1,440MWh with the battery tender element valued by the World Bank at $468m.
F. First active vanadium rental product in play with a UK client.
2/ The IDC is a national development finance institution.
So give that the IDC state involvement in the mini-grid and the actual debt element appears to have come from a French Development Bank, then perhaps their role is as the underwriter.
3/ If so then that demonstrates significant confidence in the product, the BE team, the future market and the relationship.
With everything I've discussed today in mind the following statement from the Q1 2020 update is all the more intriguing,