Kusama and Polkadot are soon launching their parachain auctions. Cross-chain composability and scalability have never been so important.
How does an auction work for users? What does it mean for $DOT, $KSM price & circulating supply?
Thread 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻
Why do developers want to do this?
The benefits of connecting to the @Polkadot or @kusamanetwork network includes full control over your environment -- but with a cheap & secure way for blockchains and apps to launch.
Kusama is a low-value version of Polkadot, but important as a testbed. Getting a @kusamanetwork parachain is a stepping stone to the big leagues.
The community will lock $DOT & $KSM to participate. We could see circulating supply drop by half. 3/
From the user's perspective, how does the auction work?
1️⃣ Crowdloans go live --> the project raises $KSM or $DOT from the community, say in return for the native token
2️⃣ Parachain auctions happen
3️⃣ The winning parachain launches
4️⃣ Unwinding at the end of the period
4/9
In the 2️⃣ Auction, a start and end time is announced. But a *retrospectively* randomly selected block cuts-off the live bidding process. The highest bidder at that time, regardless of subsequent bids, wins.
So best for projects and users to put all their chips in early 5/9
The winner automatically earns the slot and launches. Unlike ICOs, the $KSM or $DOT that users locked never go to the team. The tokens are locked until the parachain lease period ends (6-24 months), then the principal is returned.
6/9
We expect a parachain winning bid could be $30-50 million. In the table, we assume:
+ Bear market multiplier of 2-5x (each $1 inflow means a $2-5 increase in market cap),
+ Bull market multiplier of 10-20x
All things equal, we get a +21% to +206% price impact 7/9
How do you use a @Polkadot wallet?
Unlike @ethereum, you can have a master wallet (accepts all tokens on all networks) or a seperate wallet for each. The latter is less convenient but more secure.
For a deeper dive in how the auction works, how the wallet works, the price impact on $DOT or $KSM, and the implications on circulating supply, please see our report.
Su-Kyle saying they’re arb traders in a black-swan event, hunted by FTX, is the same as SBF saying there was a bank run.
Lest we forget, here’s a recap of what 3AC did 👇🏼
🔫3AC didn’t arb. They were levered long, even post $LUNA crash. No short positions
🔫They commingled and lost third party funds, including project treasuries
🔫Su and Kyle’s wife claimed $71m as creditors *based on self-attestations*
🔫Wrote a 1-liner note, lying about how they had $2.387B
🔫Promised the same collateral to multiple lenders, and offered up collateral that wasn’t fully theirs
🔫They ghosted creditors and liquidators
Evergrande FUD: What the China property market really looks like, what the CCP does and how it impacts #crypto. Let's deal with facts.
1st we look at the sector and how leverage compares among the top 30 stocks. #Evergrande isn't even at the top
There are ~30 *major* China property companies. Guangzhou R&F has the most leverage. Actually, of the China government's 3 "red lines", G R&F is the worst off.
These are the CCP's policies. Evergrande can *still* increase debt by +5%
How did Evergrande get into this position? Due to my former life as a equities PM, I've been investing in China property for 13 years.
Evergrande diversified into non-core businesses, like healthcare, water, sports, tech. They've had the among the higest debt for *many* years.
What metrics are the most valuable as a price catalyst?
As DeFi hits bearish times, memes are giving way to fundamental analysis. Some data points are useless as a price signal (like TVL).
First, why is TVL useless as a price signal?
+ TVL tracks capital -- which is mercenary and temporary
+ Not all capital is equal -- @Uniswap V3 is more efficient than V2
+ It's the max extractable value. In a selldown, investors care about downside protection, not max values
2/6
How do we know a metric matters as a price signal?
Correlation will be high and price impact is orderly. We can deduce that "Active Users" is a relevant data point to track 3/6
MEV (Miner Extractable Value) seems like such a complex attack that traders ignore it. But there's too much at stake though. Let me ELI5: 1. What is MEV? 2. How big of a deal is it? 3. How can you avoid it or profit?
h/t @defin00b@bertcmiller
1. What is MEV? It's the additional profit a miner can get by re-ordering, including or excluding transactions from the blocks they are in charge of producing.
While winning a block is fair, the winning producer gets to play God for 1 block... and reap excess profits
2. Is it a big deal? They've made $235 million in the past month. For example, when you set a 0.5% slippage tolerance on @Uniswap, bots are likely creaming off the top
$KSM is up +25% today. How do you follow the Crowdloan race for #Kusama?
$150 million was raised in 1 day. Polkadot forces projects to generate a community from Day 0, instead of relying just on VCs.
2) "Ending": There are 5 consecutive one-week auctions, 1 per week. If the project doesn't win in 43 days, then the $KSM is return to the community automatically. There will be a pause to stablized the network or even start @Polkadot's auctions
3) "Cap": Needs to be high enough to attract a sizeable community and provide sufficient rewards. For example, @AcalaNetwork is setting aside 20% of their tokens for the crowdloan @ 1.5M $KSM cap.
Macro Update: The crypto selldown of the past couple weeks has seen the most amount of value wiped out. Crypto investors underrated the Fed's statements because we've largely been dancing to our own tune the past 10 years. This formula doesn't work anymore 1/
But with institutional adoption, we now need to pay attention to cross-asset flows. #Bitcoin is viewed as a risk-on, growth asset, at the extreme end of the risk spectrum.
The Fed said that it was only thinking-about, thinking-about tapering. #Bitcoin and risk-assets love quantitative easing and egregious money printing. It hates quant tapering and tightening belts.
3/