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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
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21 May, 7 tweets, 4 min read
⚠️Whoa—Pfizer vaccine & #B16172 variant—the founder of BioNTech estimates their Pfizer vaccine to have a weakened efficacy of just 70-75% efficacy against B.1.617.2 variant (via India). A sizeable drop from 95%.

➡️CDC still wants to drop masks? #COVID19
globalnews.ca/video/rd/61f79…
2) To be clear, 70-75% efficacy still good, but it is nothing like 95%, and not enough to stop using masks. A weakened efficacy for a variant also suggests possible reinfection risk as well and likely more break through infections. This is no time to take off masks.
3) there is a good reason UK and WHO are concerned by the Indian origins #B16172 variant. It’s also poised to become the new dominant variant soon in UK
4) “Since blood tests on the [South Africa #B1351] variant had shown similar results, promising real-world data against SA variant of about 75% led him to believe that its actual effectiveness against the Indian variant “might be in the same range.”
globalnews.ca/news/7882376/b…
5) Dr @larrybrilliant is right—it is *not* enough that the vaccine is “effective” for preventing severe disease, a virus will keep spreading to uninfected and less than fully vaccinated people, which is still a lot of people in UK and the rest of the world
6) Singapore is also worried about #B16172 variant in children that their MOH sent out a warning.
7) New data suggests a mixture of the 3 vaccines in the Uk may yield decent efficacy but only if 2 doses. But 1 dose is very risky — only 33% efficacy for #B16172.

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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
23 May
⚠️PAY ATTENTION to rising #B16172 crisis in UK—crucial because India variant affects us all. It is now ~50% of all cases in England, surging fast, especially in kids. Hospital #COVID19 ward in Bolton🇬🇧 filling up. “It’s too late to contain” @chrischirp 🧵
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… ImageImage
2) And key worry is that the surge in #B16172 is domestic community transmission. Not related to international travel. Image
3) And look at the growth rate! #B16172 variant is by leaps and bounds growing faster than any other variant. The previously fast #B117 is growing much much slower—5x slower than B16172.

There can be 2 reasons—higher transmissibility, or more reinfection / vaccine breakthroughs. Image
Read 14 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
23 May
It’s sickening to watch UK’s CDC equivalent (Public Health England) now being an outlet of Boris Johnson administration’s propaganda. Yesterday, Johnson’s office censored PHE from publishing #B16172 outbreak data in schools—and then hails 33-60% 1&2 dose efficacy as a win for AZ.
2) to be clear, while 60% 2-dose efficacy is good, it’s not great. And asymptomatic infection likely lower. And 33% 1 dose is tricky too given how many countries rely on one dose strategy.
3) Many scientists are shocked by the recent actions of PHE to muzzle and coverup school outbreak data on #b16172.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
23 May
NEW—UK reports that 2 doses of AstraZeneca vaccine efficacy for #B16172 India variant: just 60%. And latest study says #B117 efficacy just 66% (lower than before). 1-dose efficacy 33% for #B16172.

Clearly #B16172 problematic in 🇬🇧 when 2/3 of shots is AZ
gov.uk/government/new… Image
2) that said, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was 88% effective against symptomatic disease from the B.1.617.2 variant 2 weeks after the second dose, compared to 93% effectiveness against the B.1.1.7 variant
3) “both vaccines were 33% effective against symptomatic disease from B.1.617.2, 3 weeks after the first dose compared to around 50% effectiveness against the B.1.1.7 variant”
Read 9 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
23 May
Staggering—at least 3 million excess deaths in 2020–which is **1.2 mil** more than the 1.8 mil official numbers: WHO estimates that is the excess in the America & Europe alone (data not yet including Asia, Africa, Middle East).

I’m also imagining India 😢
who.int/data/stories/t… ImageImage
2) “Excess mortality is defined as the difference in the total number of deaths in a crisis compared to those expected under normal conditions. COVID-19 excess mortality accounts for both the total number of deaths directly attributed to the virus as well as the indirect impact”
3) what about undercount? “A recent assessment of health information systems capacity in 133 countries found that the percentage of registered deaths ranged from 98% in the European region to only 10% in the African region.” Damn! who.int/data/data-coll…
Read 7 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
22 May
Muzzling risks in schools—Downing Street (Boris Johnson) censored @PHE_uk and prevented crucial data on spread of new #COVID19 variant in schools—notably blocking data on Indian variant school spread. Scientists & teachers said it was “deeply worrying”. 🧵
theguardian.com/world/2021/may…
2) “The focus of their anger concerns the pre-print of a PHE report that included a page of data on the spread of the India Covid-19 variant in schools. But when the report was published on Thursday 13 May, the page had been removed.”
3) “It was the only one that had been removed from the pre-print. Days later, the government went ahead with its decision to remove the mandate on face coverings in English schools.”
Read 11 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
22 May
TWO DOSES NEEDED—New UK vaccine data finds 1-shot protection for symptomatic infection of #B117 variant is 51%, and just 33% versus #B16172 from India. However, after 2 doses—87% for #B117 & 81% for #B16172. But mixed 3 vaccine types—unclear AZ vs mRNA. 🧵
ft.com/content/a70d42… Image
2) “This suggests a single shot offers 35 per cent less protection against B.1.617.2 compared with B.1.1.7, according to Financial Times analysis.
The PHE figures aggregate data from the BioNTech/Pfizer and Oxford/AstraZeneca jabs.”
3) “The rapid spread of B.1.617.2 in pockets of England has cast doubt on the country’s road map out of lockdown, with the next phase due to take place on June 21. “PHE scientists are evaluating the effectiveness of vaccines against B.1.617.2 variant” & will publish data later.
Read 8 tweets

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