This morning's rainfall forecast is actually last nights (I am in the process of moving - a bit stretched. There is a lot going on.
Here we see the ongoing impacts of a #WestAfricaWaterPlume coming into the Middle East and 2 large storms, one over Syria and one over Medina
Here are last night's 10-day rainfall forecasts for North Africa which are nothing short of astonishing with respect especially to what is expected in #Algeria and #Mauritania. The largest forecast #DesertRain event to date.
This animation is from the is morning and shows the current status of both #WestAfricanMonsoon events. The Plume directed at the #MiddleEast is continuing and the one in the west Sahara is strengthening.
This animation shows the #MiddleEast stream yesterday morning, a little bit later in the morning.
This animation CMC model shows the next three days of activity in the West Sahara as modeled. If you look closely you can also see the activity over Chad and the Sudan directed at the #MiddleEast and the comparative size of the events is obvious.
But it doesn't stop there. This animation shows the remainder of the week and through next weekend. Note that the CMC is the most bullish of the models when it comes to this phenomena. Both about the strength of the plume and its resulting #DesertRain impacts.
.. and their three day counterparts. The skies are relatively clear over the area today providing possibly some needed respite from the massive levels of precipitation since April 13th.
These images from yesterday show the extent of growth underway in Eastern Ethiopia Sudan and South Sudan.
This image shows the same areas in January for comparison.
Moving to the Middle East here are last night's 10-day rainfall forecasts. The KMA model seems to be the first to be incorporating the #WestAfricaWaterPlume impact.
And here are the longer range forecasts. Again so far only the KMA is capturing the reality on the ground. And the impact seems to be mainly in the north of the #MiddleEast over the Levant. and Iraq.
Moving further east all the models are now in agreement about the arrival of a #BayOfBengal Tropical Storm mid next week over the Ganges Delta.
This animation from this morning shows the two active cyclone formation areas one in the Bay of Bengal which shows #Invest93B which has now strengthened from a disturbance to a depression.
Here are this mornings 10 day rainfall expectations for the area from the latest model runs. Note however that the predictions around the strength of #Tauktae fell significantly short of the reality. So people in the region should be planning for a possible catastrophic landfall.
As we enter a moment of reflection following the death of Nasrallah, the impetus of the peace effort to resolve this crisis has now moved to the Arab States and the Gulf Cooperation Council.
The second major player in this new phase of this conflict resolution issue is the United Nations, which is - thanks to this year old war against mostly civilians - now facing an unprecedented crisis.
A crisis in global confidence.
It is apparent to anyone or nation- who has eyes to see or ears to listen - clear that the U.N. System has completely failed. And as a result the UN System itself is now on trial.
In other words. The Post WWII Western Nation dominated « Rules Based Order » is now itself on trial in the global court of public opinion.
In Gaza, and Lebanon, and now in New York it has very clearly failed.
(/1 of several) VIDEO THREAD:
Why does the Israel lobby still exist? with Ilan Pappé via @YouTube
History - this @ Electronic Intifada interview with preeminent 20th and 21st Century Israeli Conflics Historian Ilan Pappé is 2 months old , but it remains super relevant as a starting point. Patience is required but it is well worth it.
It focuses on the role of the Israeli Lobbies, particularly in the UK and the U.S. and includes specific exemplar discussions of on
- Senator Fullbright vs the U.S. Israel Lobby I.e. AIPAC
- Jeremy Corbyn vs The UK Israel Lobby (2017 to 2019)
(/2) The Looming Catastrophe in the Middle East (w/ Gideon Levy) | Chris Hedges Interview.
Gideon Levy’s discussion here is contemporaneous and also based on a new book. His prognosis of the corrupt state of Israeli politics and the international response is not at all positive.
I.E. they have now run out of options. And Netanyahu is now in a bind.
If Netanyahu / Israel has more tricks up its sleeve to address this remains to be seen.
But the overall construction here following Nasrallah’s remarks is pretty clear and it looks like Israel is not in a position to invade Lebanon. If they were they would have done so yesterday or the day before.
This is helpful to the Biden Administration I’d argue.
Hezbollah’s unambiguous response saying that they will only stop attacks on the northern front if there is a ceasefire in Gaza is Chrystal clear.
And this is what the American Administration also wants.
So perhaps we will see something more demonstrative. Firing missiles into the sea or the desert would be unfortunate for the fishes and camels. But it may allow the Axis to make their point without leading to a regional war that could so easily spiral completely out of control. /2
Alternatively, far better, and perhaps more effective as a prelude would be a united Arabic diplomatic response with a new peace proposal.
The U.S. is clocked out for the election and such a move could potentially lower the temperature and assist with the ultimate goal. /3
National Harris vs Trump Polls (reverse chronological order)
note: He’s only ahead in one poll since September 11th (so FOX’s desperate flag hugging effort had zero impact) and in that one poll only by 2 points whereas Harris has several 4-5 point margins.
2/2
And if you go back to late August he’s only ahead in four polls. In three of them by 1 point and the other by just 2. All of them statistical ties.
Frankly the only way I can think of to interpret this is that Israel is seeking to draw the U.S. Armada which is currently approaching Israel to establish a defensive shield over Israel into a wider war.
Yesterday was the Jewish Shabbat. Today is the Christian Sabbath. This is Netanyahu’s last stand, yet another attempt to start a regional war with the objective of dragging the U.S. into the war with Iran that he has been trying to engineer for the last few months.
He knows that a Kamala Harris Presidency will possibly be less cautious. He is concerned that a progressive administration in the White House will not tolerate his approach to Israeli security, the war he is currently waging and the long-term extremist right wing objective of driving all Palestinians out of Israel.
But to secure the space for this outcome he Israel needs a regional war with U.S. involvement to degrade Hezbollah and Iranian military capacity.
In the short term here and now he needs to blow up the talks in Cairo which are now on the threshold it seems of delivering a ceasefire agreement.
All parties to this conflict and the international community more broadly need to continue to calibrate their responses to not give him what he wants.
This morning’s events should be allowed to die down, and absent a major escalation by Hezbollah and Iran they should do so readily.
The world know knows who is responsible for continuing this horror show. The U.S. and Israel.
This morning when the U.S. wakes up it should be helped to see once again the stark reality here. That Israel under Netanyahu has become a rogue state, threatening the peace of the entire Middle East, and threatening to drag U.S. airmen and soldiers into a war that no-one sane in either the U.S., Europe, or indeed anyone on the planet wants.
Maintaining self control at this moment is therefore vital. And Netanyahu will then lose. He will not get his regional war and Israel will have to agree to a ceasefire.youtube.com/live/gCNeDWCI0…
Meanwhile…
/2 Israeli bombardments in Gaza kill several as polio vaccination continues... … via @YouTube
/3 & perhaps most significantly a mass mobilisation for a ceasefire has now become a General Strike.
« A major nationwide strike is now underway across Israel.
The largest trade union says it wants to pressure the government of Benjamin Netanyahu into signing a Gaza ceasefire and captive release deal with Hamas.
The action was called after the bodies of six Israeli captives were recovered from a tunnel in southern Gaza on Saturday.
Hamas has blamed Israeli air strikes for the deaths of those six captives whose bodies were recovered on Saturday.
Israel says they were found with bullet wounds.
Dozens of people attended a vigil for one of the six, Israeli-American Hersh Goldberg-Polin.
Israeli finance minister Bezalel Smotrich is trying to halt the general strike.
He's asked the attorney general to impose a ban - saying the industrial action will have significant economic consequences.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid has called for a complete government shutdown.
Udi Goren, a member of the Hostages and Missing Families Forum, spoke to Al Jazeera from the Israeli Knesset in West Jerusalem, where the group has been speaking to parliament members amid an ongoing general strike calling on Netanyahu to reach a deal with Hamas for the release of the remaining captives. »