Will start this thread with a disclaimer. I have never invested a rupee in cryptos 😀
But I have studied bull and bear cycles and financial bubbles extensively. Saw 1992, 2000, 2008 with own eyes. The first one as a novice, the next two when I knew to analyze
The amount of chatter I am seeing in friends, family and social media about cryptos has gone through the roof. For everyone, it's a dream to make 100x or even 1000x easily. Basically, become stinking rich easily
( it never happens )
In any financial bubble, the top is made in extreme speed and violence. The distribution happens on the way down. Unless one saw the rates of 65k on bitcoin, one wouldn't buy at 30-35k or 20k. That 65k is an anchor point which leads to greed
During the tulipmania, a single piece of tulip reached a price of $750,000 in today's money. When we see that history, we think "what idiots". But consider this, as of now meme coins generated by someone in their garage are being traded at absurd prices
Then there is this joke called NFT. A piece of "digital art" basically made by someone on their computer ( who is not even a known artist) are being sold for millions of dollars
Whatever logic crypto fanatics throw at me to justify these prices or that they will go higher fails to convince me that the future generation will not call us "what idiots". We are in a manic bubble like tulipmania or even bigger
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I leave you with this chart of HFCL, the most darling stock of the 2000 bull run. I knew quite a few "smart " traders who got in at 1400-1600 range and could never sell
What I think will happen. During distribution also, there is huge volatility with price going up and down to "lure". Remember, at any bubble the prices are #always justified by logic ( which are new and against convention). Like Harshad Mehta's "replacement cost theory"
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3 units AB+ blood urgently required for a 23 year old admitted just now at Medica for ECMO. He is critical. Donor, if not vaccinated, no problem. If 15 days past after 2nd dose, no problem. If 1st dose over but 2nd dose not complete - donor is not eligible to donate
He started off his day with wrestling practice. Then full body massage by a pahalwan
Could eat a cooked whole goat in a single meal. Then could also eat 50 mangos. Then around 20 coconuts and a few litres of milk.
Before wresting used to practice with a "mugur" ( weights) for a hour to get his body ready for the rigours of wrestling.
When he spoke out against the superstitions and fundamentalism of hinduism , was threatened that he would be murdered. His well wishers advised him to be careful . He used to laugh and say " They live on rice and bananas, they don't have the strength or courage to take me on"
COI has risen yesterday, suggesting a single day long buildup.
A series of lower highs and lower lows in place on BNF. Supports mainly coming in around 30900 levels ( why ? see the pic )
For any bullish/long views, BNF must close above the 32200-300 region. Until that, major trend is bearish
A close below 30900 with some more rise in COI can take BNF down to 29600 levels ( as the long COI will then be trapped). Intraday traders should watch 31300 breakdown as the first signs of trouble. Only a close > 32300 will break this bearish structure