📣🚨⚠️ HERE WE GO AGAIN: The fate of the #ACA and healthcare coverage for 30 million people could be decided THIS MORNING:
acasignups.net/21/05/24/here-…
AS A REMINDER, there's basically 4 ways this could go:

1. SCOTUS throws out the case for being stupid or because the plaintiffs have no standing.

This is what SHOULD happen.
2. SCOTUS strikes down the individual mandate itself only, severing it from the rest of the law.

This is the most likely scenario IMO. It would be a bit irritating but would basically amount to the status quo.
3. SCOTUS strikes down the mandate *and* the ACA provisions "directly related" to it...but leaves everything else.

This would leave a lot of important parts of the ACA in place (Medicaid expansion, subsidies, etc)...but would WIPE OUT PRE-EXISTING CONDITION PROTECTIONS.
This would be horrible for ~130M w/pre-existing conditions...and would also make for a logistical mess. How do you calculate subsidies based on the "benchmark plan" when there IS NO "benchmark plan"? (Not to mention, insurers could go back to denying coverage altogether anyway).
4. SCOTUS strikes down the Entire. Patient. Protection. And. Affordable. Care. Act. (or virtually all of it).

THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO.
As a reminder, here's just a sampling of what would happen if SCOTUS strikes down the entire/nearly the entire law:
.@SCOTUSblog will presumably be live tweeting this morning's decisions, and I'll be reposting their feed here as well. Stay tuned; opinions start being released at 10:00am.
As an aside, if you’re getting exhausted and nervous by my reposting this thread every week or so, imagine how exhausted and nervous those with medical conditions which made them uninsurable before the ACA must feel.
I mean, these are literally the two headlines pinned at the top of ACASignups.net right now, right next to each other.
⚠️ BUCKLE UP...here we go...
FIRST OPINION: "United States vs. Palomar-Santiago."

Opinion by Justice Sotomayor, and it's unanimous.
This is NOT the #ACA case.
There's no "R" number, so there are more opinions to come...
Here comes the second opinion of the day...

Apparently it'll be from Thomas, Alito, Roberts or Breyer...

"Guam vs. the United States"

It's from Thomas, and it's unanimous.
Needless to say, this is NOT the #ACA case either.

Via @AHoweBlogger:
ANNNNNND...that's it for today. AGAIN.
And so, the Sword of Damocles continues to dangle over the head of the #ACA.

@CitizenCohn should've titled his excellent book on the history of the #ACA "The TWELVE-Year War."
AS @MillardFillmor1 notes, next Monday is Memorial Day so this is probably it until June.

Many seem to think SCOTUS is waiting to announce the #ACA case opinion until the end of the session, which I believe is June 30th.

As it happens, my birthday is June 28th, so...
Since the #ACA is apparently safe for at least another couple of weeks, make sure to #GetCovered today!

acasignups.net/21/05/17/aca-e…
As an aside, if you find my work helpful & are in a position to do so, feel free to support it here: acasignups.net/support

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More from @charles_gaba

24 May
📣 Weekly Update: A Picture's Worth a Thousand Words, etc:
acasignups.net/21/05/24/weekl…
Percent of ENTIRE POPULATION vaccinated for #COVID19 by state & partisan lean as of yesterday:
Here it is with the dots adjusted for population. R2 = 0.6686. Note that this is *not* weighted for population even if the dots are sized that way:
Read 6 tweets
24 May
📣 Last election cycle I raised $6 million to help elect Democrats up and down the ballot. This cycle I’m up to $30,000 so far. Help me keep it going!
1. Help keep Virginia blue THIS year! Donate today: secure.actblue.com/donate/vablue21
2. Help Those Women From Michigan keep running things here next year! Donate today: secure.actblue.com/donate/miblue2…
Read 6 tweets
21 May
UPDATED: In addition to updating the graph with yesterday's data, I've also added another graph ranking the states by what % of the population is Black, via 2018 U.S. Census Bureau data:
acasignups.net/21/05/21/updat…
h/t to @BlackStats for the link. My take:

--the correlation between what % of a given state is black & what % of its *total* population has been vaccinated is weak; HOWEVER...

--those red/blue state labels are pretty striking (that's based purely on Biden/Trump 2020 only).
As an aside, I had no idea that over 23% of Delaware’s population is Black. Huh.
Read 4 tweets
19 May
📣 YOU ASKED FOR IT, YOU GOT IT: #COVID19 vaccination levels by COUNTY, graphed:
acasignups.net/21/05/19/you-a…
UPDATE: Thanks to @microtwinge, @ErinOfAlaska and @lindoyle2 for your assistance. I've updated the graphs accordingly (and the R^2 factor increased slightly to 0.2197 as a result).
As a reminder, you can support my work here: acasignups.net/support :)
Read 4 tweets
19 May
Rapists can sue a doctor who performs an abortion on their victim.
I haven’t updated this archive since the day Donald Trump was elected, but it seems fitting today: goprapeadvisorychart.com
Read 7 tweets

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