Thread by @charles_gaba

📣🚨⚠️ HERE WE GO AGAIN: The fate of the #ACA and healthcare coverage for 30 million people could be decided THIS MORNING:
acasignups.net/21/05/24/here-…

AS A REMINDER, there's basically 4 ways this could go:

1. SCOTUS throws out the case for being stupid or because the plaintiffs have no standing.

This is what SHOULD happen.

2. SCOTUS strikes down the individual mandate itself only, severing it from the rest of the law.

This is the most likely scenario IMO. It would be a bit irritating but would basically amount to the status quo.

3. SCOTUS strikes down the mandate *and* the ACA provisions "directly related" to it...but leaves everything else.

This would leave a lot of important parts of the ACA in place (Medicaid expansion, subsidies, etc)...but would WIPE OUT PRE-EXISTING CONDITION PROTECTIONS.

This would be horrible for ~130M w/pre-existing conditions...and would also make for a logistical mess. How do you calculate subsidies based on the "benchmark plan" when there IS NO "benchmark plan"? (Not to mention, insurers could go back to denying coverage altogether anyway).

4. SCOTUS strikes down the Entire. Patient. Protection. And. Affordable. Care. Act. (or virtually all of it).

THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO.

As a reminder, here's just a sampling of what would happen if SCOTUS strikes down the entire/nearly the entire law:

.@SCOTUSblog will presumably be live tweeting this morning's decisions, and I'll be reposting their feed here as well. Stay tuned; opinions start being released at 10:00am.

As an aside, if you’re getting exhausted and nervous by my reposting this thread every week or so, imagine how exhausted and nervous those with medical conditions which made them uninsurable before the ACA must feel.

I mean, these are literally the two headlines pinned at the top of ACASignups.net right now, right next to each other.

⚠️ BUCKLE UP...here we go...

FIRST OPINION: "United States vs. Palomar-Santiago."

Opinion by Justice Sotomayor, and it's unanimous.
This is NOT the #ACA case.
There's no "R" number, so there are more opinions to come...

via @AHoweBlogger at @SCOTUSblog:

Here comes the second opinion of the day...

Apparently it'll be from Thomas, Alito, Roberts or Breyer...

"Guam vs. the United States"

It's from Thomas, and it's unanimous.

Needless to say, this is NOT the #ACA case either.

Via @AHoweBlogger:

ANNNNNND...that's it for today. AGAIN.

https://twitter.com/SCOTUSblog/status/1396832336617082887

And so, the Sword of Damocles continues to dangle over the head of the #ACA.

@CitizenCohn should've titled his excellent book on the history of the #ACA "The TWELVE-Year War."

AS @MillardFillmor1 notes, next Monday is Memorial Day so this is probably it until June.

Many seem to think SCOTUS is waiting to announce the #ACA case opinion until the end of the session, which I believe is June 30th.

As it happens, my birthday is June 28th, so...

Since the #ACA is apparently safe for at least another couple of weeks, make sure to #GetCovered today!

acasignups.net/21/05/17/aca-e…

As an aside, if you find my work helpful & are in a position to do so, feel free to support it here: acasignups.net/support