On inflation Bailey says the rise to below target 1.5% has been base effects, but there are hotspots for prices, reflecting global commodity prices, an unbalanced post covid recovery focussed on goods...
This is a “hump” that should come down, he say.
Bank of England’s Andy Haldane on inflation:
“There’s a whole list of [prices] going up at real pace.
It’s hard to find very much, goods or assets that aren’t going up right now. With the dishonourable exception of #Bitcoin”.
“The economy is recovering, but from a low base...
this is good news... It is getting back to normal. I wouldn’t call it a boom” BoE external member Michael Saunders
Bailey describes a huge downgrade (from 7.5% in Feb to 5.5%) in expectations for rise in unemployment, thanks to extension of furlough at Budget:
“There will be less long term unemployment - more people will from furlough to job, rather than furlough-unemployment-job”
Dep Gov Cunliffe says we’ve discovered capital “at home”
Seen “forced experiment in shutting large part of our economy down & working from home & productivity didnt suffer...We have capability & capital sitting on our phones & desktops that enable us to work much more flexibly”
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This was the first on record reference to “herd immunity”, unprompted, by a Sage adviser, in an interview with the BBC, on March 11th 2020. Interesting context for @dominic2306 claims, denied by Govt, that the late push to lockdown last year reflected actual strategy:
Was herd immunity “policy”? - easy to disprove, because it is a scientific description of a state.
Did “herd immunity” thinking influence a 2-3 wk delay in actual lockdown that cost tens thousand lives, & resulted in worse econ outcomes? That= real q
To be clear, the motivation as I understand it for some of those pushing a herd immunity approach was that the public would get bored of a premature lockdown, undermining its effectiveness, and that in any second wave having let virus spread in first, there would be immunity…
Worth noting that its importance to Govt is especially elevated because the US deal really doesn’t seem to be a priority for Biden admin. See last wk response from USTR to Senator Portman: “v critical areas open, still quite a road”
Also the question specifically asked if USTR would ask to extend trade authority to finish UK deal - Tai did not say that, said objectives still being reviewed and “we are keeping our eye on” Northern Ireland after concerns from Congress, in relation to trade deal...
..no mention in bilateral readouts of conversations of trade ministers and PM-President, Queens Speech mentioned three areas to deepen trade ties, but not US..
prevention of last year’s moves to a quick trade deal under Trump could have put matters back years, beyond midterms...
Elon Musk turned up at GigaFactory Berlin - which will start producing Teslas by year end… his plane stopped off in UK over the weekend… as it did last June… meeting anyone interesting @elonmusk ?
Industry insiders report considerable Govt effort going into wooing him to UK…
The question would be how to persuade him that he can’t just freely serve UK market tariff free from Berlin factory… get into quite complex rules of origin calculations on electric cars, which were the subject of very last minute phase in negotiations between PM and VDL.
many years ago U.K. certainly an option,
when he announced Berlin in 2019 he was asked by a British journalist why not UK… he referenced Brexit - though that was while immediate tariffs/ no deal were still a possibility - does the deal remove the risk he identified then?
UK GDP in Q1 fell 1.5%, after the second lockdown... driven by hits to household consumption and investment, but rebound had already begun by end of that quarter in March as restrictions lifted - growth of 2.1%.
Trade figures out this morning give a full quarters post Brexit transition picture...
UK exports to the EU down 18.1%
Imports from EU down 21.7% versus Q4 2020
Non EU exports up 0.4%, imports down 0.9% in same time period ...
Various ways to compare trade figures - basic point - full quarter gives fuller picture than monthly figures...using 2019 as more normal figure than 2020
Eg. Q1 2021 goods exports to EU £32bn down 29% from £45bn in Q1 2019.
Same quarter non EU £41bn, down 7% from £44.5bn in 19