On inflation Bailey says the rise to below target 1.5% has been base effects, but there are hotspots for prices, reflecting global commodity prices, an unbalanced post covid recovery focussed on goods...

This is a “hump” that should come down, he say.
Bank of England’s Andy Haldane on inflation:
“There’s a whole list of [prices] going up at real pace.
It’s hard to find very much, goods or assets that aren’t going up right now. With the dishonourable exception of #Bitcoin”.
“The economy is recovering, but from a low base...
this is good news... It is getting back to normal. I wouldn’t call it a boom” BoE external member Michael Saunders
Bailey describes a huge downgrade (from 7.5% in Feb to 5.5%) in expectations for rise in unemployment, thanks to extension of furlough at Budget:

“There will be less long term unemployment - more people will from furlough to job, rather than furlough-unemployment-job”
Dep Gov Cunliffe says we’ve discovered capital “at home”

Seen “forced experiment in shutting large part of our economy down & working from home & productivity didnt suffer...We have capability & capital sitting on our phones & desktops that enable us to work much more flexibly”

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More from @faisalislam

23 May
This was the first on record reference to “herd immunity”, unprompted, by a Sage adviser, in an interview with the BBC, on March 11th 2020. Interesting context for @dominic2306 claims, denied by Govt, that the late push to lockdown last year reflected actual strategy:
two different things here:

Was herd immunity “policy”? - easy to disprove, because it is a scientific description of a state.

Did “herd immunity” thinking influence a 2-3 wk delay in actual lockdown that cost tens thousand lives, & resulted in worse econ outcomes? That= real q
To be clear, the motivation as I understand it for some of those pushing a herd immunity approach was that the public would get bored of a premature lockdown, undermining its effectiveness, and that in any second wave having let virus spread in first, there would be immunity…
Read 8 tweets
19 May
🇦🇺 🇬🇧
On the Australia trade deal rumpus...

Worth noting that its importance to Govt is especially elevated because the US deal really doesn’t seem to be a priority for Biden admin. See last wk response from USTR to Senator Portman: “v critical areas open, still quite a road”
Also the question specifically asked if USTR would ask to extend trade authority to finish UK deal - Tai did not say that, said objectives still being reviewed and “we are keeping our eye on” Northern Ireland after concerns from Congress, in relation to trade deal...
..no mention in bilateral readouts of conversations of trade ministers and PM-President, Queens Speech mentioned three areas to deepen trade ties, but not US..

prevention of last year’s moves to a quick trade deal under Trump could have put matters back years, beyond midterms...
Read 10 tweets
17 May
Elon Musk turned up at GigaFactory Berlin - which will start producing Teslas by year end… his plane stopped off in UK over the weekend… as it did last June… meeting anyone interesting @elonmusk ?

Industry insiders report considerable Govt effort going into wooing him to UK…
The question would be how to persuade him that he can’t just freely serve UK market tariff free from Berlin factory… get into quite complex rules of origin calculations on electric cars, which were the subject of very last minute phase in negotiations between PM and VDL.
many years ago U.K. certainly an option,
when he announced Berlin in 2019 he was asked by a British journalist why not UK… he referenced Brexit - though that was while immediate tariffs/ no deal were still a possibility - does the deal remove the risk he identified then?
Read 5 tweets
12 May
UK GDP in Q1 fell 1.5%, after the second lockdown... driven by hits to household consumption and investment, but rebound had already begun by end of that quarter in March as restrictions lifted - growth of 2.1%.
Trade figures out this morning give a full quarters post Brexit transition picture...

UK exports to the EU down 18.1%
Imports from EU down 21.7% versus Q4 2020

Non EU exports up 0.4%, imports down 0.9% in same time period ...
Various ways to compare trade figures - basic point - full quarter gives fuller picture than monthly figures...using 2019 as more normal figure than 2020

Eg. Q1 2021 goods exports to EU £32bn down 29% from £45bn in Q1 2019.

Same quarter non EU £41bn, down 7% from £44.5bn in 19
Read 6 tweets
11 May
“My Government will ensure that public finances will return to a sustainable path once recovery secured…” Queens speech…
Government will “modernise the planning system so that more homes can be built"
“my ministers will deepen trade ties in the Gulf, Africa and the Indo-Pacific”….

And what about the US trade deal?
#QueensSpeech
Read 4 tweets
7 May
One pattern to look for over weekend is impact of massive economic state interventions (in emergency)on politics.

No bigger policy impact than interventions that keep you paid & in a job, & then jabbed & able to regain freedom.

In theory would boost all incumbent Governments
…call is looking good as we stand - incumbents across Britain benefit from intervening to affect people’s lives during this crisis, like never before.

truly staggering to really consider how many Britons have been directly impacted by actions of Governments over past 12 months
incumbent party in England wins councils/councillors, 11 years into Westmin Govt

incumbent party in Scotland gains constituencies, 10 years into Holyrood Govt

incumbent party in Wales gets working majority matching best result, after 22 years in charge in Cardiff

Vaccine Vote.
Read 7 tweets

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