Thread by @twodtwod

1/8: Do not expect Berlin (Merkel et al) to allow any EU v. Belarus/Russia sanctions to limit its energy alliance with Moscow (e.g., #Nordstream2). Rather: given Berlin’s Russia geostrategy, Lukashenko’s #BelarusHighjacking (like Putin’s #alexeinavalny

2/8: poisoning, #Ukraine invasions, gas crises, cyber-attacks, etc.) only FORTIFY Berlin’s rationale for partnering on #Nordstream2. One must take #ChncellorMerkel’s & German political and business elites’ words & deeds seriously: Preserving Germany’s

3/8: commercial-geopolitical gas alliance with Putin to (i) replace #Ukraine/ #Belarus/ #Poland transit and (ii) make Germany #Gazprom’s new gas hub into Europe is not an “error in judgement;” but Berlin’s conscious, deeply held GEOSTRATEGY. That is:

4/8: Berlin seeks to fortify “LONG LASTING,” “MUTUALLY DEPENDENT” energy-infrastructure-and-market ties with Moscow so as not to be (i) fully “subordinated” to the US/NATO side in the growing “#GreatPowerCompetition” with #Russia

5/8: (or w/ China) and (2) “dependent” on “risky” Ukraine #gastransit for “our and Europe’s energy security.” This explains why, the more Russia v. US/EU/NATO confrontations heat up, the more Germany is resolved not to be constrained by

6/8: or drawn-into this faceoff. Rather, Berlin relies on “deep commercial energy ties” to “make Russian-German conflict difficult.” Germany is a CONSCIOUS CENTRIST POWER, a “we must trade with both sides at all costs” power. See my 2017

7/8: “Neue Neue Ostpolitik” analysis of Germany’s Russia geostrategy, (esp. 2nd half of the article; at #DGAP’s Berlin Policy Journal or at GlobalBarrel.com). Go to:

8/8: globalbarrel.com/2017/07/03/neu… NOTE: All "quotes" above are my para-phrases or characterizations, from my research in speaking with many Berlin political or business actors.

9/8: Or read at Berlin Policy Journal: berlinpolicyjournal.com/neue-neue-ostp…