Thread by @DrEricDing

⚠️UPDATED WARNING issued on #B16172 variant’s risks by UK’s @IndependentSage expert group—

“PHE reports paint a far more concerning outlook for the roadmap and require an urgent public health response… before the situation worsens further.” 🧵 #COVID19
independentsage.org/response-to-th…

2) First the report notes that #B16172 “its growth has outpaced all other tracked variants” (including faster than the already fast #b117 UK ‘Kent’ variant)

3) “methods estimate that as of 15 May, B.1.617.2 represented approximately half of all identified cases in England. Regionally, it was dominant in the North West (about 70% of cases), likely dominant in London, the South East and South West”

4) “Compared to the B.1.1.7 variant (“Kent”), the number of cases of B.1.617.2 was growing twice as fast, and close contacts were 50% more likely to be infected. …PHE concludes that it is likely that at least some of it is [due to increased transmission]”

5) “Bolton in the North West of England currently has the highest case rates in the country, where cases are highest in school age children. It would be very useful in future reports to see the age, hospitalisations of the new variant, as well about outbreaks in schools” ⚠️

6) “The report on vaccine efficacy is the first real-world evidence of the efficacy of the Pfizer & AstraZeneca vaccines in symptomatic B.1.617.2. The study estimates both 33% effective at preventing symptomatic #B16172 infection after 1 dose (vs 51% against #B117)…

7) “for Pfizer, 88% effective after 2 doses (vs 93% for B.1.1.7) and for AstraZeneca, 60% effective after 2 doses (vs 66% for B.1.1.7).

PHE suggest that the lower efficacy of AstraZeneca after two doses is because it takes longer to reach full efficacy after the second dose.”

8) “This is the first real-world evidence that ***B.1.617.2 does possess some vaccine escape ability***, particularly in people who have had just one dose….”

9) “This new knowledge is reflected in PHE’s risk assessment (document 3), where the risk rating for vaccine escape is upgraded from Amber with low confidence to Red with moderate confidence (after one dose).”

10) “We are in a situation in which a new variant that is both more transmissible and demonstrates some vaccine escape is on the verge of becoming the dominant strain of Covid-19 in England.”

11) “While two doses of vaccine offer excellent protection, this is much lower after one dose. Currently, only 30% of our population is fully vaccinated, representing 43% of adults. This falls to 33% of adults when considering adults more than two weeks out from their second dose

12) “While extending intervals between doses was right decision in Jan, it does impact the risk for the roadmap this summer as many people will be without full protection for many weeks longer, particularly if AstraZeneca vaccination takes longer to reach full efficacy.”

13) “Results from the SAGE modelling subgroup from 5 May, highlighted again by SAGE on 13 May, show that a variant that is 50% more transmissible could lead to a surge in hospitalisations as large as the peak last January, even if there was no vaccine escape at all.” ⚠️

14) “The JUNIPER subgroup for SAGE reported on the rapid growth of B.1.617.2 on 13 May and advised that definitive evidence on magnitude of transmissibility might come too late and that caution was warranted: …

15) ““In the face of uncertain evidence the risk of over-reacting seems small compared to the potential benefit of delaying a third wave until more people are vaccinated.”

while surge vaccination was very welcome, on its own, it could not necessarily prevent a summer wave”.

16) “We conclude that, given the weight of evidence from PHE and SAGE test 4 for the roadmap that “the assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new variants of concern” is ***not being met***” ⚠️