I said yesterday that over the next few days we would see over 3000 infections in a day soon. Today, it was 3180, and 9 deaths. This takes a little unpacking. Here's the overall picture now (1) Image
Have a look at the recent trends for both infections and deaths on log plots. Cases are rising, deaths are basically static and perhaps rising again, but its hard to be certain (2) Image
The overall trend for deaths is worrying. For 3 of the last 4 days we saw more deaths reported than the same day the previous week (3) Image
We can't yet pick this out over the statistical noise -we can say that deaths aren't falling, we can't yet say for sure whether this is translating into a rise (other than over the last few days) (4) Image
On average deaths are rising at 1.7% per day over the last 7 days, but while numbers are still low thats a very noisy figure, don't read too much in to it yet. Its concerning. Its not terrifying yet, (5) Image
Cases are rising, tomorrow projections are for 3085 to 3393. (6) Image
Cases are rising at about 2.4% per day, on average over the last 7 days (7) Image
This is nothing like the case number we were getting in December and January, but its a real rise and its concerning (8) Image
Its still turbulent, we would struggle to put a line on doubling times for cases as calculated daily, the trend is bad, on the whole its getting faster. (9) Image
Sow here are we with regards to infection rate (R)? Well, not in a good place. This is calcualted from a rolling 7 day average for both deaths and cases, based on how long it takes for symptoms to show and to kill (10) Image
On that basis R as calculted from deaths was higher on the 3rd of this month than at any point since the 20th of December - if thats daily scatter from low numbers it'll fall again. If it isn't, it won't (11)
And for infection its still above 1.1. Thats definitely real. (12)
So are we at crisis point again? Look, this is crude analysis here, I can't say with certainty - but I'd be nervous about any more unlocking as things stand right now. (fin)

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More from @gnomeicide

29 May
Both deaths and cases up on last Saturday. The Covid-19 picture in the UK is looking pretty crap right now. I'll try and explain whats happening. Here's the overall picture (1) Image
Even on the overall picture you can see that cases are rising. But here's a look at the recent trends on log plots, its very clear death and cases are now rising (2) Image
Cases started rising in early May. Around the 4th... (3) Image
Read 13 tweets
27 May
Things are suddenly going wrong. Here's the overall Covid picture in the UK now - cases and deaths are rising (1) Image
Have a look at the recent trends on log plots. Its early days to be certain deaths are going up - 3 days in a row is concerning but not conclusive. Cases are rising faster though, today was over-trend (2) Image
In fact, deaths have risen for 4 of the last 7. (3) Image
Read 15 tweets
27 May
In Britain right now 38,376,564 have had 1 dose of vaccine, 23,618,498 have had 2 doses. Assuming 90% efficacy of 2 doses in stopping spread, 50% of 1 dose, and THE ORIGINAL STRAIN of Covid with a published R0 of 5.7 this is where we would be Image
The Kent strain is between 30% and 70% more infectious. Here's what it looks like with our current rate of vaccination assuming the mid point of that (55%) Image
Or, in other words, we're still not able to fully unlock because we didn't work hard enough to avoid variants emerging, we allowed infection to spread and create this problem. This is directly and absolutely a failing in government policy in the UK. How about the Indian strain?
Read 7 tweets
14 Feb
Covid-19 deaths and infections are settling in to pretty regular trends right now, but explaining what that really means will take a moment or three. Here's the overall picture (1)
Have a look at that on a log graph - note two different scales here, but its important you get a closer look at whats happening (2)
A straight line on a log plot means a constant proportional rate. It turns a constant curve into a straight line. So a linear graph might be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, but a straight line on a log plot would be 1, 2, 4, 8, 16. (3)
Read 18 tweets
12 Feb
Fyi @SouthCambs @jdjhiston - Kings Hedges Road, South Side, under the trees. Surprised its South Cambs and not Cambridge. Colossal amount of fly tipping, much is years old. ImageImageImageImage
Could add loads more pics if you need. Have eventually manages to report it through your website. It'll be awfully hard to deal with this when the undergrowth grows back up in Spring. There is A LOT of waste. A lot.
I had a walk in and out under the trees there and liberated assorted inflatable balls (footballs, rugby balls, a volleyball) that'll be cleaned, pumped and hoiked out onto the playing fields where kids will find them...
Read 5 tweets
9 Feb
I've been trying to fit trends to whats happening with Covid-19 data in the UK and I think we may just be seeing some trends emerge. Here's the overall picture - recorded cases and deaths continue to fall (1)
Here's a closer look at the recent trends, on a log scale. You can see that there's a straight line for how fast cases are declining on the log graph, making it a regular proportional drop, whereas deaths are still curving downwards (2)
What does that mean? Well in terms of positive test results it means we saw a fall in positive tests from around the 4th to the 17th of January, and while that fall continues now its no longer accelerating, its more or less a constant 4% fall per day now. Roughly. (3)
Read 19 tweets

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