Both deaths and cases up on last Saturday. The Covid-19 picture in the UK is looking pretty crap right now. I'll try and explain whats happening. Here's the overall picture (1)
Even on the overall picture you can see that cases are rising. But here's a look at the recent trends on log plots, its very clear death and cases are now rising (2)
Cases started rising in early May. Around the 4th... (3)
Deaths started rising later. It takes an average of 23 days for Covid to kill. It takes 5 days for symptoms to show. Between 18 and 23 days after a reported rise in cases, deaths rise. Every time. This is the same (4)
21 days after cases were recorded to be rising, deaths are recorded to be rising. (5)
Deathhs are rising at 5.6% per day, 7 day rolling average, thats the highest since the 14th of January (as deaths were slowing in the final approach to the second peak) (6)
We can work out a proxy for R looking at deaths, but at a delay. We're up to the 6th of this month for that from current deaths data. It was rising rapidly, above 1.4. Thats the highest since the 24th of September last year (7)
Deaths have risen, over the previous week, for 5 successive days. That hasn't happened since January. (8)
Cases are rising at over 3% per day now. (9)
Comparing R as calculated from deaths and cases, you can see that for the most part during the pandemic they track (10)
...but with fewer people dying right now the fluctuations in this figure for deaths is more variable. The trend is unmistakably upwards, and however you measure it R is above 1 and rising (11)
I don't know how else to put it - but it looks to me like things are going slowly pearshaped. How bad they'll get, I don't know. But what kind of fool would be urging us on to open up more, and faster, with this going on? (12)
Its time to hit the brakes on reopening. It may be time to reign things back a bit too. (fin)

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More from @gnomeicide

27 May
Things are suddenly going wrong. Here's the overall Covid picture in the UK now - cases and deaths are rising (1) Image
Have a look at the recent trends on log plots. Its early days to be certain deaths are going up - 3 days in a row is concerning but not conclusive. Cases are rising faster though, today was over-trend (2) Image
In fact, deaths have risen for 4 of the last 7. (3) Image
Read 15 tweets
27 May
In Britain right now 38,376,564 have had 1 dose of vaccine, 23,618,498 have had 2 doses. Assuming 90% efficacy of 2 doses in stopping spread, 50% of 1 dose, and THE ORIGINAL STRAIN of Covid with a published R0 of 5.7 this is where we would be Image
The Kent strain is between 30% and 70% more infectious. Here's what it looks like with our current rate of vaccination assuming the mid point of that (55%) Image
Or, in other words, we're still not able to fully unlock because we didn't work hard enough to avoid variants emerging, we allowed infection to spread and create this problem. This is directly and absolutely a failing in government policy in the UK. How about the Indian strain?
Read 7 tweets
26 May
I said yesterday that over the next few days we would see over 3000 infections in a day soon. Today, it was 3180, and 9 deaths. This takes a little unpacking. Here's the overall picture now (1) Image
Have a look at the recent trends for both infections and deaths on log plots. Cases are rising, deaths are basically static and perhaps rising again, but its hard to be certain (2) Image
The overall trend for deaths is worrying. For 3 of the last 4 days we saw more deaths reported than the same day the previous week (3) Image
Read 13 tweets
14 Feb
Covid-19 deaths and infections are settling in to pretty regular trends right now, but explaining what that really means will take a moment or three. Here's the overall picture (1)
Have a look at that on a log graph - note two different scales here, but its important you get a closer look at whats happening (2)
A straight line on a log plot means a constant proportional rate. It turns a constant curve into a straight line. So a linear graph might be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, but a straight line on a log plot would be 1, 2, 4, 8, 16. (3)
Read 18 tweets
12 Feb
Fyi @SouthCambs @jdjhiston - Kings Hedges Road, South Side, under the trees. Surprised its South Cambs and not Cambridge. Colossal amount of fly tipping, much is years old. ImageImageImageImage
Could add loads more pics if you need. Have eventually manages to report it through your website. It'll be awfully hard to deal with this when the undergrowth grows back up in Spring. There is A LOT of waste. A lot.
I had a walk in and out under the trees there and liberated assorted inflatable balls (footballs, rugby balls, a volleyball) that'll be cleaned, pumped and hoiked out onto the playing fields where kids will find them...
Read 5 tweets
9 Feb
I've been trying to fit trends to whats happening with Covid-19 data in the UK and I think we may just be seeing some trends emerge. Here's the overall picture - recorded cases and deaths continue to fall (1)
Here's a closer look at the recent trends, on a log scale. You can see that there's a straight line for how fast cases are declining on the log graph, making it a regular proportional drop, whereas deaths are still curving downwards (2)
What does that mean? Well in terms of positive test results it means we saw a fall in positive tests from around the 4th to the 17th of January, and while that fall continues now its no longer accelerating, its more or less a constant 4% fall per day now. Roughly. (3)
Read 19 tweets

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