Thread by @atrembla

My take on #alberta #covid #OpenForSummer plans...

The good:
Alberta numbers are way down from the peak of wave 3 a few weeks ago. The drop has been sharp in response to public health measures as well as increase 1st dose vaccination rates, now almost 60% for age 12+.
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We are seeing a resulting drop in new hospitalizations, although we are just off peak numbers of people still in hospital and in ICUs. Unfortunately many of these patients will take time to recover, some will have chronic sequelae and others will not survive to discharge.
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We are ready for some loosening of restrictions. Schools re-opened in person yesterday, and stage I restrictions will lift on June 1. Many of these are low risk outdoor activities. All good here, but things get more difficult at next steps.
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We are likely to reach stage 2 vaccine criteria as soon as tomorrow, meaning that this stage will trigger less than 2 weeks after stage 1. Too short of a period to notice effects of stage 1 relaxation. A longer period is needed.
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Then we get to stage 3, again potentially with a <14d interval. Not really a stage, as all restrictions other than quarantine for a positive case are lifted.
-Contacts of positive cases no longer need to isolate (vaccinated or not). Hope that this is a misunderstanding.
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-Massive events don't even need approvals or COVID management plans.
-No plans to go back to 100% VOC testing of all positive cases. So we will have delays in understanding inevitable emergence.
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-Potential message to population that 2nd doses of vaccinations are not critical. This could add to risk of VOC emergence, such as for B.1.617 which appears partially resistant to vaccination efforts.
-Removal of mask mandated province wide.
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-Explicit encouragement for international tourism to return to province despite federal restrictions.
-Local-regional differences in vaccination rates or case rates (for current B.1.1.7 variant or other emerging VOCs) do not lead to targeted measures.
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All this risks ongoing local outbreaks in areas with lower vaccination uptake or following super-spreader events. Would seem to guarantee ongoing virus transmission. Perhaps not enough to overwhelm hospitals, but certainly enough to cause harm and morbidity.
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Perhaps enough to allow a more troublesome VOC to take hold, particularly troublesome if single dose vaccination offers limited protection (or worse). Perhaps enough to allow ongoing transmission through summer months and once again threaten return to school in September.
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COVID will still be here on July 1. To remove essentially all measures at that point is non-sensical.
We need a better plan, one than consider regional differences in both case rates and vaccination rates.

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A plan that doubles down on contact tracing and isolation rather than back off / remove such requirements.
A plan that includes testing of all isolates for VOCs and immediate and firm action when such a VOC outbreak is identified.

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A plan that targets 1st vaccine dose in communities with lower uptake to date and also promotes second doses when available.
A plan that maintains simple precautions such as masks in high risk environments until high level of fully vaccinated population achieved.
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A plan that does not risk our health and our liberties for the sake of a few mega-events.
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