NEW:

Billions of pounds of British exports to the EU faced tariffs in first three months of UK-EU tariff free trade deal, according to a Trade Policy Observatory analysis, seen by the BBC, of the official EU27 data from actual customs declarations now required on UK-EU trade /1
FULL Story: This is an early study of “preference utilisation” using official data, and reflects a number of stories we have heard of companies simply paying the tariff if they are unable or it is too onerous to claim eligibility for the tariff-free deal bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
The TPO analysis concludes that £2.5 to £3.5 billion of British exports have faced tariffs so far, but the data for March is not yet complete. European sources said their internal data put it at €2.5bn -for reference GB-EU exports were £34bn (down from avg £44b Q1 18-20) /3
So what’s going on?

some evidence in the data to back up what industry bodies for food, textile and car exports told us, that this was about inability to claim zero tariffs, and in particular to be able to prove exports and parts were “made in Britain” - aka rules of origin /4
There is the related issue of where GB had been used to process EU content/ parts for reexport to EU. There is also a lack of familiarity with the terms of the deal in Jan/ Feb. and theres also a hope some of these payments could be refunded /5
Glass half full version is that utilisation of deal is not far out of line with normal free trade agreements elsewhere. Ie even zero tariff deals still require exporters to prove eligibility, and its never 100%. On the other hand of course, none of this was required before. /6
gives early indication - trade officials say they want to wait a year to assess utilisation rates, & also for example, doesn’t include Northern Ireland.

UK authorities are collecting the equivalent data incoming from the EU27, which will be interesting. Yet to be published /7

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More from @faisalislam

24 May
On inflation Bailey says the rise to below target 1.5% has been base effects, but there are hotspots for prices, reflecting global commodity prices, an unbalanced post covid recovery focussed on goods...

This is a “hump” that should come down, he say.
Bank of England’s Andy Haldane on inflation:
“There’s a whole list of [prices] going up at real pace.
It’s hard to find very much, goods or assets that aren’t going up right now. With the dishonourable exception of #Bitcoin”.
“The economy is recovering, but from a low base...
this is good news... It is getting back to normal. I wouldn’t call it a boom” BoE external member Michael Saunders
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23 May
This was the first on record reference to “herd immunity”, unprompted, by a Sage adviser, in an interview with the BBC, on March 11th 2020. Interesting context for @dominic2306 claims, denied by Govt, that the late push to lockdown last year reflected actual strategy:
two different things here:

Was herd immunity “policy”? - easy to disprove, because it is a scientific description of a state.

Did “herd immunity” thinking influence a 2-3 wk delay in actual lockdown that cost tens thousand lives, & resulted in worse econ outcomes? That= real q
To be clear, the motivation as I understand it for some of those pushing a herd immunity approach was that the public would get bored of a premature lockdown, undermining its effectiveness, and that in any second wave having let virus spread in first, there would be immunity…
Read 8 tweets
19 May
🇦🇺 🇬🇧
On the Australia trade deal rumpus...

Worth noting that its importance to Govt is especially elevated because the US deal really doesn’t seem to be a priority for Biden admin. See last wk response from USTR to Senator Portman: “v critical areas open, still quite a road”
Also the question specifically asked if USTR would ask to extend trade authority to finish UK deal - Tai did not say that, said objectives still being reviewed and “we are keeping our eye on” Northern Ireland after concerns from Congress, in relation to trade deal...
..no mention in bilateral readouts of conversations of trade ministers and PM-President, Queens Speech mentioned three areas to deepen trade ties, but not US..

prevention of last year’s moves to a quick trade deal under Trump could have put matters back years, beyond midterms...
Read 10 tweets
17 May
Elon Musk turned up at GigaFactory Berlin - which will start producing Teslas by year end… his plane stopped off in UK over the weekend… as it did last June… meeting anyone interesting @elonmusk ?

Industry insiders report considerable Govt effort going into wooing him to UK…
The question would be how to persuade him that he can’t just freely serve UK market tariff free from Berlin factory… get into quite complex rules of origin calculations on electric cars, which were the subject of very last minute phase in negotiations between PM and VDL.
many years ago U.K. certainly an option,
when he announced Berlin in 2019 he was asked by a British journalist why not UK… he referenced Brexit - though that was while immediate tariffs/ no deal were still a possibility - does the deal remove the risk he identified then?
Read 5 tweets
12 May
UK GDP in Q1 fell 1.5%, after the second lockdown... driven by hits to household consumption and investment, but rebound had already begun by end of that quarter in March as restrictions lifted - growth of 2.1%.
Trade figures out this morning give a full quarters post Brexit transition picture...

UK exports to the EU down 18.1%
Imports from EU down 21.7% versus Q4 2020

Non EU exports up 0.4%, imports down 0.9% in same time period ...
Various ways to compare trade figures - basic point - full quarter gives fuller picture than monthly figures...using 2019 as more normal figure than 2020

Eg. Q1 2021 goods exports to EU £32bn down 29% from £45bn in Q1 2019.

Same quarter non EU £41bn, down 7% from £44.5bn in 19
Read 6 tweets
11 May
“My Government will ensure that public finances will return to a sustainable path once recovery secured…” Queens speech…
Government will “modernise the planning system so that more homes can be built"
“my ministers will deepen trade ties in the Gulf, Africa and the Indo-Pacific”….

And what about the US trade deal?
#QueensSpeech
Read 4 tweets

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