UK govt gearing up to pressure Scottish & other devolved admins on European & international offices. A sort of crazed control-freakery (not sure what happened to love-bombing).
More seriously, perfectly normal for regions & sub-states to have Brussels & international offices. 1/8
Bavaria has a Brussels office, so does Quebec, Catalonia etc. This is more about rampant Tory unionism, & fear of Scottish govt para diplomacy, including not least its successful Brussels, Berlin, Dublin & Paris offices & manifesto commitment to open a Nordic/Baltic hub
2/8
These Scottish hubs promote Scottish interests in diverse ways, such as research links, culture, climate change cooperation (eg discussions in Germany on hydrogen power). And yes ministers may sometimes touch on politics when talking to European & international interlocutors.
3/8
Frost expects devolved govts to support UK position in international meetings. Sure, foreign policy is reserved. But Scottish govt well advised eg not to back UK govt's threats to break international law on NI protocol. And international affairs much wider than foreign policy
4/8
Scottish govt is committed to aligning with EU laws in environment where possible - UK govt is not. So, apart from internal market act making that more difficult, of course Scottish govt will have different policies to discuss w EU contacts.
5/8
Real issue here is that while EU govts & officials are neutral on independence, they are sympathetic to Scotland voting remain but getting Brexit. And they appreciate dealing with a more pro-European, rational government than Johnson's. Scotland is popular in EU, UK is not.
6/8
Scottish para diplomacy can also easily promote independence indirectly. Scotland as a serious, small European country/devolved govt focused on trade, climate, rights, well-being builds positive external relations & shows iScotland will be an EU asset not a problem
7/8
UK govt wants to inhibit Scottish govt from doing its best to build positive European & international relations despite Brexit. Ironically, this clumsy control-freakery is likely simply to increase understanding & appreciation of Scotland internationally
8/8
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As SNP set out 11 point plan to indyref, a few comments on route to independence in EU - drawing on in-depth research interviews across many EU member states.
There is a clear path to re-joining EU if independence done in legal, constitutional way with agreement Edinburgh-London
There's more understanding of Scottish independence in EU now than in 2014 but also a wide range of views - EU govts do not look at the fragmentation of the UK as positive (UK has caused enough trouble via Brexit) but if Scotland was independent then EU wd be pragmatic
Whether section 30 order or other route to independence, EU member states & Brussels, will be looking for political agreement between Edinburgh & London, an agreed divorce, rUK recognition of iScotland. This is especially important for Spain but for others too.
Implications of EU-UK deal for Scot govt aim
of indy in EU?
- no tariffs or quotas iScot-rUK but plenty of customs checks & bureaucracy, but some trusted traders scheme etc
- iScot wd benefit, as rest of EU, from level-playing field controls
- challenges on services trade espec.
What is clear is that the new 1246 page EU-UK treaty will set a big chunk of future iScotland-rUK relations if iScotland does rejoin the EU. But given limited services access, there will also be much to negotiate bilaterally on services (& on non-EU issues).
So the future potential iScotland-rUK border becomes much clearer through the EU-UK agreement, albeit iScotland in EU wd likely be in the UK/Ireland common travel area, & the relationship EU-UK will doubtless evolve to some extent (or more depending on future UK govts)
New @scer_eu Policy Paper: EU Views of the UK, the future EU-UK relationship & UK's constitutional strains
1/10 scer.scot/database/ident…
EU Views of UK: both appalled, concerned & pragmatic; see UK, since 2016, as unreliable, unpredictable, untrustworthy, as having lost influence, & harming itself in multiple ways.
Yet, EU still wants close, constructive relationship building on a basic deal.
2.
EU open door in Brussels & member states to more foreign & security policy cooperation w UK but anticipate more ad hoc UK approach for ideological reasons, EU bemused by 'global Britain' concept. Less readiness to rapidly negotiate closer economic ties in short term
EU views on upcoming UK-EU relationships talks from my Brussels visit this week:
Core mantra: deal to be done is 'level-playing field for free trade agreement'. No tariffs/quotas is big offer & not given for nothing back. Governance is key.
UK now weaker partner.
Thread
1.
Much concern on level-playing field as v brief commitment in political declaration to 'uphold the common high standards' at end of transition on state aid, competition, social/labour standards, environment, climate change & 'relevant tax matters'.
2.
Concerns too at UK's regulatory divergence goal. What does this mean in principle? Lack of understanding in some quarters of even the basic point that goods coming into EU mkt must meet its regulations.
Aim at dynamic alignment on state aids, prob also tax will be v tough
3.
Government WAB impact assessment full of holes but look at detail on GB-NI trade - East-West, West-East or from outside EU.
56% of NI external trade in goods is w GB, 27% w EU.
Freight transfer NI-GB 17.6 million tonnes of which 35% is NI-Scotland 1/
Tariffs will apply East-West i.e. GB to NI unless goods not at risk of entering EU. Import Declarations & Entry Summary declarations both needed E-W - this is the EU customs border. So rule of origin apply too. And then regulatory compliance.
2/
And as @SamuelMarcLowe has pointed out NI, like GB, faces major negative impact on services.
Not obvious why NI would somehow become a super hot FDI destination given all this plus associated uncertainty 3/
So what did we learn from Johnson's visit to Scotland?
That he's either so scared of a few boos from Scottish protesters &/or has such a naive media adviser that he left Bute house by the back door rather than face protesters again 1. theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
We learnt Johnson has nothing to say to remain-voting Scotland, weak promise of some reheated funding is not meant to smooth huge hit of a no deal Brexit nor be a plausible media story
That Ruth Davidson 'whole heartedly backs' his Brexit strategy (really? there's a strategy?)
2
We learnt Johnson thinks treating Merkel, Macron, Varadkar with contempt, as he bumbles round Faslane & Edinburgh, is his 'strategy' & appropriate