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Vincent Foucher Profile picture
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31 May, 4 tweets, 1 min read
It's not just that... An international or regional organisation has impact only when a (relatively) strong state has a strong interest in a crisis & a solution to push, takes the lead & puts the resources behind & is unopposed by the other states. tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…
Then that state and the regional organisation work together to legitimise and push a solution. This is what Senegal did in the Gambia. It met only with weak, isolated frontal opposition (Alpha Condé) & some players at the UN prevented Dakar from securing a full-on UN endorsement.
But it worked all the same. Fairly similar case is Guinea-Bissau, where Dakar also worked with and through ECOWAS to push its take (there again, against Condé)
And this is precisely what we are missing in Mali: no ECOWAS country has the interest, resources, appetite, energy, ideas, leverage and guts to take on Mali.

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More from @VincentFoucher

Vincent Foucher Profile picture
2 Jun
1. More news from ISWAP – in an audio released some time ago (before the Sambisa blitz against #Shekau, I think), Abu Musab al Barnawi, the ad interim boss (wali?) of #ISWAP #BokoHaram, details a point he had made in a statement that I have commented earlier. A thread.
2. This new audio revolves around Abu Musab's earlier promise to review past injustices committed by ISWAP. He reiterates. He calls all those aggrieved, whether ISWAP members or civilians, to put forth their claims. He confirms a forum will examine these claims.
3. He insists justice applies to leadership, rank and file, and civilians alike. He insists both leaders and followers in ISWAP have done some wrong. He insists that even soldiers of the Caliphate will be punished if they kill without a good reason.
Read 19 tweets
Vincent Foucher Profile picture
31 May
According several Borno sources, with Shekau out of the way, #ISWAP is embarking on a campaign of outreach to civilians in its areas of influence old & new, insisting that Shekau is dead, that they are ruling now, & that (Muslim) civilians will be safe as long as they pay zakat
In the Lake area, they have released civilians detained for a variety of offenses (bush burning, unauthorised grazing, etc). They have opened areas that they used to forbid for security reasons to civilians & removed a few officials known for being harsh on civilians.
And yes, in its areas of control, ISWAP had been detaining and fining herders for grazing on the fields of farmers. And they protect grazing areas from the enchroachment of farmers. And they protect herders from bandits and Shekau raiders.
Read 5 tweets
Vincent Foucher Profile picture
27 May
1. This is #BokoHaram thread-day, it seems… This time about the situation now prevalent in the Sambisa. I indirectly got some feedback from the #JASDJ side… It looks like, with Shekau gone, the incorporation of JAS into ISWAP is well on its way.
2. First, some info about the recent events gets additional verification. Yes, there was fighting in Sambisa (and JAS fighters did not lose it all). Yes, Shekau blew himself up, killing some ISWAP members. Yes, Abu Musab is ISWAP’s leader.
3. JAS now counts 20 subgroups, each presumably under a qaid (did some qaed die during the ISWAP push? Not known. Also, is Bakura counted as one of the 20?)
Read 16 tweets
Vincent Foucher Profile picture
27 May
1. In the long version of the audio released in Hausa before his death on 18 May, Abubakar Shekau, the leader of #JASDJ #BokoHaram, gives interesting bits about the events that were leading to his ultimate defeat. He also sheds light on more long term issues. A thread…
2. Shekau confirms that ISWAP (never named) entered Sambisa, and that some fighting took place. He also insists that ISWAP flipped over a number of JAS members.
3. He notes that ISWAP was pressing him to pledge allegiance to Abu Ibrahim, the current Islamic State Caliph, adding that they promised him he would be acknowledged as wali of “the whole African continent” if he did.
Read 21 tweets
Vincent Foucher Profile picture
5 May
If you have an interest in the political economy and governance of jihad, and its interaction with pastoralisms (or cattle-rearing), a good piece by Florian Köhler about #ISWAP #BokoHaram and cattle-rearers in the Diffa region of Niger… a thread… tinyurl.com/99mzasc6
If you are impatient with the growing mass of gnosis and dribble that gets published about #BokoHaram, commentaries of exegesis of interviews with diplomats, security experts and NGO workers, read that piece – it includes actual fieldwork. Yes. Interviews with pastoralists.
(I know. Amazing. I too was moved).
Read 11 tweets
Vincent Foucher Profile picture
10 Jan
Pretty fascinating story... Traditional king in Mlomp (Ziguinchor region, southern Senegal) sets market prices for a number of goods, apparently for local produce. So curious to know more, #Casamance & #Senegal heads. xibaaru.sn/oussouye-le-ro…
I assume it is an attempt to protect local agriculturists from traders. The king acts as a de facto union organiser...
Fascinating that Diola kingships, often been disregarded, are gaining traction. In a way, the Diola have found their marabouts - decades ago, the Murid khalif general had intervened to get better prices for groundnut farmers, among whom he counted many follower
Read 6 tweets

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