Thread by @covid19indiaorg

Will our vaccination numbers rebound this month?

With 5.8Cr doses, May saw a 35% DROP in vaccine doses administered, compared to April.

As per official data, vaccine supply stood at 7.94Cr doses in May.

Then, why were we able to administer only 5.8Cr doses?

1/4

📌 Data as on 29th May morning, shows that states had 2.15Cr doses available with them. Together with the 5.8Cr administered doses, this accounts for the 7.94Cr monthly supply figure.

📌 Does this mean that states have had stock, but vaccination was slow? Let's explore:

2/4

As per official data 1.43Cr doses were available with states as of 22/05.
Between 22/05 and 28/05, 1.38Cr doses were administered by states: A high utilisation %.

If 2.15Cr doses were available as of 29/05, it points to 2Cr+ doses being supplied in the last week of May.

3/5

📌 While looking at the monthly supply numbers, understand that actual supply will be staggered across the month.
📌 Even with 7.94Cr monthly doses, the supply in May, was behind the doses administered in April (close to 9Cr), pointing to supply side constraints.

4/5

Looking at June:

The supply projection for June is close to 12Cr doses. Note that states had 2Cr+ doses as of 29/05.

As per this projection, we could see 10 to 12Cr doses administered this month, depending on how the supply pans out. Timing of supply is important.

5/5

The projection for June is based on ramped up production capacity for both Covishield and Covaxin. It's important to ask whether the additional supply will be made available early in the month or towards the end of June. If it's the latter, it can affect our June vaccination nos.