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Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
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1 Jun, 4 tweets, 2 min read
For my growing menagerie of misused baseline scenarios in policy analysis . . .

Accounting for finance is key for climate mitigation pathways science.sciencemag.org/content/372/65… Image
Down the rabbit hole I go ...
Roncoroni et al 2021
doi-org.colorado.idm.oclc.org/10.1016/j.jfs.… Image
BAU scenarios of Roncoroni et al 2021 under 5 IAMS (L)

As a comparison (R) to NGFS BAU (black) & more plausible BAU (red) ImageImage
It is more than ever for peer-reviewers of papers using BAU (or reference or policy) scenarios to ask to see those scenarios & evaluate them based on plauibility

Any analysis based on implausible BAUs says nothing much useful about the real world

/END

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
2 Jun
🧵
The policy questions related to trans athlete inclusion in mainstream sport are actually straightforward

Here is the question: Should trans athletes be allowed to participate in mainstream sport under the gender category that they are recognized in broader society?
There are just three answers to this question:

➡️No
➡️Yes, but regulated
➡️Yes

I am in the "yes, but regulated" category
I am aware of very few who argue "yes"
I hear a lot from the "no" folks

Let's take each in turn
"Yes"

This position is functionally equivalent to abandoning male/female categories in sport & calling for open competition

It is a great point of discussion for the classroom, but it for a range of reasons - practical, ethical, legal, societal - it is not desirable in practice
Read 11 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
27 May
Statement by President Joe Biden on the Investigation into the Origins of COVID-19 whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
I get what is meant here, but on this topic precise language matters

"whether it emerged from human contact with an infected animal or from a laboratory accident"

As written, these are not mutually exclusive
Biden already has a IC report
Why a new one?
Why now?
"shortly after I became President, in March, I had my National Security Advisor task the Intelligence Community to prepare a report on their most up-to-date analysis of the origins of COVID-19"

Some thoughts...
Read 9 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
25 May
“counter-opinion masquerading as fact checking”

Very good look at “fact checking” by @JohnTierneyNYC
I documented the clear use of flawed information by “Climate Feedback” to censor views apparently accurate but I welcomed
⤵️
MIT’s Emanuel has a fine academic record but he also states that his extreme views on disaster contradict the IPCC consensus

By selecting him as a “fact checker” to censor others, Facebook is able to stealthily counter the IPCC consensus while still invoking “facts”

Clever!
Read 15 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
23 May
Pielke Jr., R. 2000. Policy Responses to El Niño 1997-1998: Implications for Forecast Value and the Future of Climate Services. In S. Changnon (Ed), 2000. El Niño, 1997-1998: The Climate Event of the Century, Oxford University Press.
oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/o… Image
An analysis of policy responses to climate forecasts associated w/ 97/98 El Nino in US & argued that the relationship of forecast skill and societal value of the forecast is highly complex, the former did not dictate the latter

Pre-pub version free here:
sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publicat… Image
Using the framework of this 2000 paper:
One day, soon likely, there will be a debate over skill vs value associated with the RCPs

The wrongness of RCP8.5 is inevitable to be recognized

The debate will then shift to whether its wrongness contributed to value in policy advocacy
Read 5 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
20 May
Why is RCP8.5 as BAU here to stay?

"Climate intelligence" ➡️Here's 40 billion reasons
tmcnet.com/usubmit/2021/0… ImageImage
What a world we live in
doi.org/10.1016/j.erss… Image
I just Goggled climate intelligence & consultant
This came up

You can make >$300k playing around with pretend worlds of RCPs and SSPs ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
15 May
Deposition in Mann vs. CEI/National Review rogerpielkejr.com/2021/05/15/dep…
In it I discuss Climategate, The Hockey Stick, Grijalva, 538, IPCC, Mann's years of attacks on me and others & the differences between fraud as a catch-all colloquialism and the formal definition of research misconduct in science . . .
An excerpt . . .
Read 4 tweets

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