🧵
The policy questions related to trans athlete inclusion in mainstream sport are actually straightforward

Here is the question: Should trans athletes be allowed to participate in mainstream sport under the gender category that they are recognized in broader society?
There are just three answers to this question:

➡️No
➡️Yes, but regulated
➡️Yes

I am in the "yes, but regulated" category
I am aware of very few who argue "yes"
I hear a lot from the "no" folks

Let's take each in turn
"Yes"

This position is functionally equivalent to abandoning male/female categories in sport & calling for open competition

It is a great point of discussion for the classroom, but it for a range of reasons - practical, ethical, legal, societal - it is not desirable in practice
"No"

This position is functionally equivalent to banning trans athletes from competing in the male/female category they are recognized in broader society

Many who argue this seem to think that repeating the word "science" wins the debate

But ethics, culture, values matter too
"Yes, but regulated"

This position recognizes the science of biology, but also recognizes that inclusion is a value that is held in society and within sport

How regulations are to be developed and implemented is contested & political

This is the current IOC position
Debate over trans inclusion in mainstream sport parallels debate over para athlete inclusion in mainstream sport
There's an int'l convention on disabled persons but even that hasn't stopped debate or efforts to ban para athletes from mainstream competition
un.org/development/de…
For my part -these are my values- inclusion is important
It is so important that I believe that we collectively have a strong obligation to make every reasonable accommodation possible for inclusion of everyone in mainstream sport
You have different values? Great!
These are mine
Sport is a part of society
Therefore sport should reflect society
Sport is not a playground where discrimination & exclusion get a free pass
Don't take my word for it, the long arc of history is towards greater inclusion with hard fought battles along the way
Neither "science" nor "biology" are in opposition to inclusion
Facts don't determine values
An is does not create an ought

Some want to ban trans athletes
Some want them included (but regulated)

This is not a debate that will be settled intellectually
It is political
A final few points

I fully respect that people have differing & legitimate views on this issue - people (me too) hold values dear

But the debate should occur without stigmatizing individuals or groups, far too much of that from the "no" crowd (I see you)
In closing I'm happy to hear your views, agree or disagree

That said, be a jerk on Twitter and I will instantly mute
Far too much nastiness, name calling & even threats on my feed on this topic (it's even worse than climate, which should give you pause!)

Happy Wednesday😎

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

1 Jun
For my growing menagerie of misused baseline scenarios in policy analysis . . .

Accounting for finance is key for climate mitigation pathways science.sciencemag.org/content/372/65… Image
Down the rabbit hole I go ...
Roncoroni et al 2021
doi-org.colorado.idm.oclc.org/10.1016/j.jfs.… Image
BAU scenarios of Roncoroni et al 2021 under 5 IAMS (L)

As a comparison (R) to NGFS BAU (black) & more plausible BAU (red) ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
27 May
Statement by President Joe Biden on the Investigation into the Origins of COVID-19 whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
I get what is meant here, but on this topic precise language matters

"whether it emerged from human contact with an infected animal or from a laboratory accident"

As written, these are not mutually exclusive
Biden already has a IC report
Why a new one?
Why now?
"shortly after I became President, in March, I had my National Security Advisor task the Intelligence Community to prepare a report on their most up-to-date analysis of the origins of COVID-19"

Some thoughts...
Read 9 tweets
25 May
“counter-opinion masquerading as fact checking”

Very good look at “fact checking” by @JohnTierneyNYC
I documented the clear use of flawed information by “Climate Feedback” to censor views apparently accurate but I welcomed
⤵️
MIT’s Emanuel has a fine academic record but he also states that his extreme views on disaster contradict the IPCC consensus

By selecting him as a “fact checker” to censor others, Facebook is able to stealthily counter the IPCC consensus while still invoking “facts”

Clever!
Read 15 tweets
23 May
Pielke Jr., R. 2000. Policy Responses to El Niño 1997-1998: Implications for Forecast Value and the Future of Climate Services. In S. Changnon (Ed), 2000. El Niño, 1997-1998: The Climate Event of the Century, Oxford University Press.
oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/o… Image
An analysis of policy responses to climate forecasts associated w/ 97/98 El Nino in US & argued that the relationship of forecast skill and societal value of the forecast is highly complex, the former did not dictate the latter

Pre-pub version free here:
sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publicat… Image
Using the framework of this 2000 paper:
One day, soon likely, there will be a debate over skill vs value associated with the RCPs

The wrongness of RCP8.5 is inevitable to be recognized

The debate will then shift to whether its wrongness contributed to value in policy advocacy
Read 5 tweets
20 May
Why is RCP8.5 as BAU here to stay?

"Climate intelligence" ➡️Here's 40 billion reasons
tmcnet.com/usubmit/2021/0… ImageImage
What a world we live in
doi.org/10.1016/j.erss… Image
I just Goggled climate intelligence & consultant
This came up

You can make >$300k playing around with pretend worlds of RCPs and SSPs ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
15 May
Deposition in Mann vs. CEI/National Review rogerpielkejr.com/2021/05/15/dep…
In it I discuss Climategate, The Hockey Stick, Grijalva, 538, IPCC, Mann's years of attacks on me and others & the differences between fraud as a catch-all colloquialism and the formal definition of research misconduct in science . . .
An excerpt . . .
Read 4 tweets

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