Thread by @PPSSFBoardWatch

Joining the SFUSD budget committee- starting a presentation on enrollment trends #BoardWatch

Looking at data: CBEDs is from early October, EOY is end of year. In general ending with same number as starting.

About same number transferred out this year but fewer transferred in. English learners lead some of the trends. #BoardWatch

Data on transfer in and out by grade. More coming in at 9th, more out at 11th. #BoardWatch

School registration is down about 10% in kindergarten class, mostly white students. #BoardWatch

This is just Round 1 data. Looking at other data indicators: info about who is moving out of city va those choosing other school options. Also birth rate trends. #BoardWatch

Traditionally use forecasts to predict enrollment- pre pandemic projecting growth by 5k, will need to reassess. #BoardWatch

Public school share has not changed a great deal over time #BoardWatch

Enrollment drives funding-not just who is enrolled but who shows up “average daily attendance” Have been held harmless this year, but if trends don’t change, run risk of declining revenue in FY 22-23. #BoardWatch

Formal documentation is in 10 day count—school site budgets are determined by enrollment, not ADA. Revise school budgets after 10 day count. #BoardWatch

Important that families are filling out multipurpose income forms to identify highest need students and allow collection of supplemental and concentration funds #BoardWatch

What can be done to rebuild enrollment. First is rebuilding trust says Chief O’Keefe. #BoardWatch

Have help from researchers about what is desirable to families when they make school requests. #BoardWatch

Also replacing assignment system with zone-based system #BoardWatch

Maximize state funding: prioritize regular attendance and build capacity to accurately capture attendance data #BoardWatch

Multi-purpose income form used to be free and reduced price meal form, but it is much more than that. Allows access to many programs and also ties to funding. #BoardWatch

Upcoming milestones: see what happens in round 2, in the fall. Numbers will change a lot. #BoardWatch

Public comment: realistically need to look at K shapes recovery. Double whammy for district, some will be priced out of SF, at top end, many are aware there is a lack of trust in the district. Current outlook is off. State projects 9% drop. #BoardWatch

PC: data raises as many questions as it answers, particularly transfer patterns. Looks like we have lost 2.99% of students with IEPs. Hope we do a data dive into why. Anecdotally, pushing round 2 dates back has been difficult for those with IEPs. #BoardWatch

PC: glad this is being treated as multidisciplinary topic. Need to rebuild trust, but short term ask people why they are transferring out. Wellness checks are one opportunity #BoardWatch

PC: wonder about impact of immigration trends. Also wonder if data like IP addresses is available to know where people are logging in from. Give insights about those with unstable housing. Decrease in transfer in might relate to remote context #BoardWatch

Commissioner Alexander wonders what strategy we have for housing stability as a way to stabilize enrollment. Are there local initiatives we should be advocating for? #BoardWatch

No explicit discussions about this with housing stability in mind says Dep. Supe Leigh. This data has been trying to get mind around the trends. #BoardWatch

Commissioner Sanchez wonders when demographic trends will be updated. A: no current contract to do this but will follow up. #BoardWatch

Commissioner Lam: think it is important to update projections, especially given kindergarten trends. Also agree with looking at immigration data. Notes trend/ out flux of lower income families. #BoardWatch

Lam: how do we capture families before they leave? Survey or research? A: no exit interview, but ongoing research references in the presentation will help us understand what parents want. #BoardWatch

Research project is multi-year. Already did preliminary work and there is a report we could share. #BoardWatch

Sanchez notes that John Burke who is with RPA and presented tonight is retiring. Note’s Mr. Burke’s kindness. Alexander shares how helpful Burke was when he was a principal (we heartily concur and will miss Mr. Burke ALOT! Happy retirement 😀) #BoardWatch

Onto budget presentation. chief Wallace says it has been budget whiplash this year. Recession -> surplus. Largely driven by tax revenues. K shape recovery- those who have been doing well are doing better. #BoardWatch

Visual representation: capital gains at historic highs. On right, unemployment rates are higher than national level and home prices keep going up #BoardWatch

Good news: more funding coming our way. Big leap in LCFF funding. Mega-COLA of over 5% #BoardWatch

Trends at district level not as positive. Supplemental and concentration grants have declined significantly -—connects to multipurpose forms - may not be accurately representing need. Net change is 1.2M #BoardWatch

Expenses are projected to grow after May revise. Increase in pension allocations, unemployment has been drawing down fund balance in statewide pool so will have bump-up in contribution rate per employee for the next year. #BoardWatch

Restricted resources (PEEF, QTEA) need to rely on federal stimulus funds to balance budget #BoardWatch

Distance learning statutes will expire in June. Will be in person in fall. There will be a 5M facilities reserve #BoardWatch

Still don’t have final numbers on all funds. One promising area is student nutrition. Can reduce contributions based on new Federal contributions

Looking at some new funding opportunities- round 2 and Extended learning and concentration grant funding expansion. #BoardWatch

We would likely not be among early recipients of new concentration grant funding, but perhaps in 3rd year. Ties to need for MPFIC #BoardWatch

Budget scenario overall #BoardWatch

Balance/surplus for next year can be set aside for subsequent year, but will still need a balancing plan. #BoardWatch

Upcoming dates. Materials will be online Friday re budget. #BoardWatch

Public Comment: advocate for additional scenario planning- moderate deficit scenario is actually quite grave. #BoardWatch

(Sorry for the gap-tweeting while walking and ran out of juice) Joining board discussion of budget. Commissioner Boggess wonders how budget savings measures will be prioritized. Director Gordon thinks next year we are in good place, zero-based budgeting process going forward

Boggess: hope we can create excitement about what is being offered in the district, boost enrollment #BoardWatch

Gordon: over 80% of budget is staffing. #BoardWatch

Commissioner Alexander hopes that school-sites can be held harmless in the fall. Gordon: we made a short plug in end of year newsletter for principals to reach out to budget office if interested in having input into the budget and MTSS process #BoardWatch

Commissioner Lam: as we look to the fall and get updated enrollment data need to think of balance-where we will land on expenditures and FY end. Have to hold and build reserves. #BoardWatch

Next up: LCAP update #BoardWatch

LCAP is updated every year. This is first in a new three year cycle. Last year it was suspended. #BoardWatch

Here is a summary of what is in an LCAP ( it is a long doc!) have a “mega annual update” this year says Budget Director Gordon. #BoardWatch

Stakeholder engagement requirements and how SFUSD meets them #BoardWatch

A few more.. #BoardWatch

In addition to what we have to do, LCAP Task Force has allowed us to do this and more says Gordon. #BoardWatch

Task force meets every month, Gordon attends and helps ensure budget transparency, answers questions. #BoardWatch

Comparing stakeholder engagement: this year vs prior years. No large meetings this year, no fall data forum. These have varied year to year also. #BoardWatch

Recognize there are improvements to be made with process. Sharing revised timeline for upcoming school year based on advisory feedback. Will start engagement in the fall on LCAP. #BoardWatch

Can adopt revisions to LCAP during a cycle. #BoardWatch

That is the end of the presentation and we are logging off for tonight. Thanks for following! #BoardWatch

@threadreaderapp unroll. Much appreciated!