The framing of this polling by @PublicFirst_PF is questionable.

Why would taxes need to rise to pay for *catch up* tuition?

By definition it's a *one-off* bump in expenditure not an increase in the structural deficit requiring remedial fiscal action...

cps.org.uk/files/reports/… Image
...clear argument, as @TimPitt11 says, for treating it like emergency furlough spending & temporarily increasing public borrowing to cover it....
...especially as one can plausibly argue that the long-term fiscal benefits will outweigh the short-term fiscal costs due to an increase in the future earning power of the kids affected...
...Is there a legitimate concern the temporary extra tuition spending could turn out to be permanent?

Is that what the polling is trying to get at?...
...If so the relevant question surely ought to be:

"Would you be prepared to pay higher taxes to fund a permanent increase in education spending after the pandemic?"...
...Still, beyond that quibble, it's got lots of useful polling evidence on what parents actually think about the degree of harm to learning from lockdown, extending the school day, what subjects should be prioritised in catch-up etc

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More from @BenChu_

4 Jun
Does trying to defund fossil fuel companies make economic and environmental sense?

🏭💸🔨🌎

A thread…🧵1/14
Extinction Rebellion has been exerting pressure on banks over their financing of fossil fuel companies.

Asset managers have come under increasing pressure to sell shares in these firms too...2/

independent.co.uk/climate-change…
Some argue such financial divestment campaigns are foolish and counterproductive.

Bill Gates claims they haven’t done any good...3/

ft.com/content/21009e…
Read 14 tweets
19 May
Is the UK economy in danger of becoming the new Italy?

🇬🇧🇮🇹🤦‍♂️

A thread...1/23🧵
...@resfoundation and @CEP_LSE raised this prospect as they launched their Economy 2030 research programme yesterday…2/23

economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/wp-content/upl…
...So let's look at why it’s such a dire prospect and whether or not it’s possible.

Italy’s a good comparator country for the UK because recently as the 1980s it was broadly equal in economic size, population and prosperity…3/23
Read 23 tweets
18 May
This feels rather like the Brexit political economy chickens coming home to roost. 👇

As experts stressed before & after the referendum, the politics of trade deals comes down not just to aggregate economic outcomes but industrial/sectoral interests...

...In theory everyone wins economically from reducing trade barriers.

In practice the economic impact is uneven across different sectors of the economy - and that's often a political barrier to doing trade deals...
...The government's own modelling analysis shows a positive (albeit small - 0.01-0.02%) long run impact on UK GDP from a UK-Australia free trade deal...

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Read 8 tweets
14 May
European official data (Eurostat) and UK official data (ONS) have shown a somewhat different picture on post-Brexit trade patterns.

🚄🚚🇬🇧🇪🇺

What's going on?

A thread...1/11
...the Eurostat data shows a significantly larger fall in UK to EU goods exports than the ONS data

(Note: this comparison doesn't include March - Eurostat data for that month isn't out yet though ONS's is)...3/11

...
Read 12 tweets
13 May
The idea stronger growth this year means Sunak can cancel future tax rises seems confused to me - or at least an incomplete analysis.

Brief thread 🧵

Assuming no public spending changes, when it comes to pressure for tax rises to balance spending with tax revenues...
....what matters is the projected structural deficit *after* the recovery is complete.

And what determines *that* will be the scale of long-term scarring to GDP (i.e the level of GDP relative to pre-crisis expectations)...

The Bank is currently projecting 1.25% GDP scarring...
....A faster recovery to a lower (scarred) path of GDP doesn't change the size of the post crisis structural deficit & longer term pressure for tax rises.

For that to happen you need projections of lower scarring...
Read 6 tweets
12 May
BREAKING: US consumer price inflation for April comes in at 4.2% y/y - above average estimate of economists polled by Reuters of 3.6%

Core inflation 3% y/y vs estimate of 2.3%
👇
....Highest rate of inflation in US seen since Sep 2008...
...in response, 10 year US Treasury yields up a couple of basis points to 1.645%...

dollar index spikes...

Suggest markets pricing in possibility of Fed rate hike sooner than expected...
Read 7 tweets

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