5274 infections and 18 deaths today. Here's the overall Covid picture in the UK now, and we're just falling off the wrong side of the knife edge (1) Image
Have a look at recent trends for cases and deaths on log plots. Cases are rising ever faster, and deaths are, well, rising slowly again. In a break from tradition I'll go over infections first today (2) Image
Here's what infections are doing - 7 day rolling average change in infections is going the wrong way. The rate infections are rising is going up, and fast. 4.82% per day, thats the worst rate of rise since the 6th of January (3) Image
5274 cases is the highest total since the 26th of March. (4) Image
And yes, when something is curving up on a log plot it means cases are rising proportionally faster. That ain't good (5)
Look at how cases doubling time is trending down. Cases are now doubling every 16-17 days (based on daily change in the 7 days rolling average) (6) Image
And that means R as calculated from cases is rising. For the 26th of last month (roughly the most recent day we can calculate) it reached 1.25. Thats the highest R we can calculate since the 29th of December (7) Image
Calculating a proxy of R from deaths is harder right now, as the number of deaths is low so daily variation makes up a larger proportion of whats going on - derived figures like this are therefore less reliable (8)
Deaths have risen for 6 of he last 7 days. (9) Image
From a low of 40 dead per 7 days we're back up to 54. From a daily average of 5.71 to 7.71. (10) Image
On trends based on either the last 7 or 14 days, deaths are now rising. Neither projection is currently fast, but we need to watch this like a hawk (11) Image
The second wave of infections started last July. If we plot whats happening now, compared with then, its not dissimilar (12) Image
And then, like now, deaths weren't doing much, daily variation was pretty big, and that made spotting any specific trends difficult. We know how ignoring that ended (13) Image
Even more striking is how similar the situation is now with where we were in recovery from wave 1. (14) Image
Do we know how fast deaths will rise? No. But we do know that with the claimed infectivity of the strains of Covid we're battling, we are not at herd immunity yet. Cases, hence deaths, will rise. (15)
Opening up further and faster now means one thing. Accepting more people will die, entirely needlessly, and we will be in this mess for longer. Now is a time for caution (16)
More haste, less speed as they say. We're teetering on the wrong side of the knife edge right now. This is not a good state of affairs (fin)

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More from @gnomeicide

5 Jun
Deaths and cases up today. Here's the overall Covid-19 picture in the UK, I'll try and unpack whats happening in a thread (1) Image
If you look at recent trends for reported cases on log plots, its getting frightening. Cases are rising ever faster, and deaths are rising. 6765 cases, up from 3398 last Saturday, and 13 deaths, up from 7. (2) Image
Deaths have risen, relative to the same day the previous week, for 6 of the last 7 days. The exception was Monday, which of course was at the end of a bank holiday weekend, meaning the report was likely artificially low (3) Image
Read 17 tweets
4 Jun
If we didn't have any new variants of Covid-19, then with the level of vaccine coverage we have in the UK we would by now have achieved herd immunity. 39.8 million 1 dose (50% efficacy), 22.4 million 2 doses (90% efficacy), starting with 1000 cases and an R0 of 5.7, we get this Image
But the D strain, if it is true that there is some vaccine escape, is a problem. Leaving R0 alone (and thats hopelessly optimistic, its much more infectious) and reducing efficacy to 33% and 75%, we get this curve Image
Lets be under no illusions - we're still in a mess because we failed to control the virus domestically (hence the Kent, or A strain) and the Indian strain (D) getting in. Without these we would now be able to get -entirely- back to normal
Read 6 tweets
29 May
Both deaths and cases up on last Saturday. The Covid-19 picture in the UK is looking pretty crap right now. I'll try and explain whats happening. Here's the overall picture (1)
Even on the overall picture you can see that cases are rising. But here's a look at the recent trends on log plots, its very clear death and cases are now rising (2)
Cases started rising in early May. Around the 4th... (3)
Read 13 tweets
27 May
Things are suddenly going wrong. Here's the overall Covid picture in the UK now - cases and deaths are rising (1) Image
Have a look at the recent trends on log plots. Its early days to be certain deaths are going up - 3 days in a row is concerning but not conclusive. Cases are rising faster though, today was over-trend (2) Image
In fact, deaths have risen for 4 of the last 7. (3) Image
Read 15 tweets
27 May
In Britain right now 38,376,564 have had 1 dose of vaccine, 23,618,498 have had 2 doses. Assuming 90% efficacy of 2 doses in stopping spread, 50% of 1 dose, and THE ORIGINAL STRAIN of Covid with a published R0 of 5.7 this is where we would be Image
The Kent strain is between 30% and 70% more infectious. Here's what it looks like with our current rate of vaccination assuming the mid point of that (55%) Image
Or, in other words, we're still not able to fully unlock because we didn't work hard enough to avoid variants emerging, we allowed infection to spread and create this problem. This is directly and absolutely a failing in government policy in the UK. How about the Indian strain?
Read 7 tweets
26 May
I said yesterday that over the next few days we would see over 3000 infections in a day soon. Today, it was 3180, and 9 deaths. This takes a little unpacking. Here's the overall picture now (1) Image
Have a look at the recent trends for both infections and deaths on log plots. Cases are rising, deaths are basically static and perhaps rising again, but its hard to be certain (2) Image
The overall trend for deaths is worrying. For 3 of the last 4 days we saw more deaths reported than the same day the previous week (3) Image
Read 13 tweets

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