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Cab Davidson #FBPE

4 Jun, 6 tweets, 2 min read

If we didn't have any new variants of Covid-19, then with the level of vaccine coverage we have in the UK we would by now have achieved herd immunity. 39.8 million 1 dose (50% efficacy), 22.4 million 2 doses (90% efficacy), starting with 1000 cases and an R0 of 5.7, we get this

But the D strain, if it is true that there is some vaccine escape, is a problem. Leaving R0 alone (and thats hopelessly optimistic, its much more infectious) and reducing efficacy to 33% and 75%, we get this curve

Lets be under no illusions - we're still in a mess because we failed to control the virus domestically (hence the Kent, or A strain) and the Indian strain (D) getting in. Without these we would now be able to get -entirely- back to normal

But its worse than that. The new D strain is much more infectious. Here's what it looks like even if its only 50% worse than the original strain

There was, is, and can be only one approach to infectious disease - we have to eradicate it. Zero covid was the only game in town and we in the UK didn't play it. Its still the only game in town, but we've made it MUCH HARDER now.

Addendum: I couldn't believe the maths so I checked. And sadly things are actually slightly worse than that, I was using an outdated population total. We're worse off than depicted.

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More from @gnomeicide

Cab Davidson #FBPE

@gnomeicide

5 Jun

Deaths and cases up today. Here's the overall Covid-19 picture in the UK, I'll try and unpack whats happening in a thread (1)

If you look at recent trends for reported cases on log plots, its getting frightening. Cases are rising ever faster, and deaths are rising. 6765 cases, up from 3398 last Saturday, and 13 deaths, up from 7. (2)

Deaths have risen, relative to the same day the previous week, for 6 of the last 7 days. The exception was Monday, which of course was at the end of a bank holiday weekend, meaning the report was likely artificially low (3)

Read 17 tweets

Cab Davidson #FBPE

@gnomeicide

3 Jun

5274 infections and 18 deaths today. Here's the overall Covid picture in the UK now, and we're just falling off the wrong side of the knife edge (1)

Have a look at recent trends for cases and deaths on log plots. Cases are rising ever faster, and deaths are, well, rising slowly again. In a break from tradition I'll go over infections first today (2)

Here's what infections are doing - 7 day rolling average change in infections is going the wrong way. The rate infections are rising is going up, and fast. 4.82% per day, thats the worst rate of rise since the 6th of January (3)

Read 17 tweets

Cab Davidson #FBPE

@gnomeicide

29 May

Both deaths and cases up on last Saturday. The Covid-19 picture in the UK is looking pretty crap right now. I'll try and explain whats happening. Here's the overall picture (1)

Even on the overall picture you can see that cases are rising. But here's a look at the recent trends on log plots, its very clear death and cases are now rising (2)

Cases started rising in early May. Around the 4th... (3)

Read 13 tweets

Cab Davidson #FBPE

@gnomeicide

27 May

Things are suddenly going wrong. Here's the overall Covid picture in the UK now - cases and deaths are rising (1)

Have a look at the recent trends on log plots. Its early days to be certain deaths are going up - 3 days in a row is concerning but not conclusive. Cases are rising faster though, today was over-trend (2)

In fact, deaths have risen for 4 of the last 7. (3)

Read 15 tweets

Cab Davidson #FBPE

@gnomeicide

27 May

In Britain right now 38,376,564 have had 1 dose of vaccine, 23,618,498 have had 2 doses. Assuming 90% efficacy of 2 doses in stopping spread, 50% of 1 dose, and THE ORIGINAL STRAIN of Covid with a published R0 of 5.7 this is where we would be

The Kent strain is between 30% and 70% more infectious. Here's what it looks like with our current rate of vaccination assuming the mid point of that (55%)

Or, in other words, we're still not able to fully unlock because we didn't work hard enough to avoid variants emerging, we allowed infection to spread and create this problem. This is directly and absolutely a failing in government policy in the UK. How about the Indian strain?

Read 7 tweets

Cab Davidson #FBPE

@gnomeicide

26 May

I said yesterday that over the next few days we would see over 3000 infections in a day soon. Today, it was 3180, and 9 deaths. This takes a little unpacking. Here's the overall picture now (1)

Have a look at the recent trends for both infections and deaths on log plots. Cases are rising, deaths are basically static and perhaps rising again, but its hard to be certain (2)

The overall trend for deaths is worrying. For 3 of the last 4 days we saw more deaths reported than the same day the previous week (3)

Read 13 tweets

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