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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
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4 Jun, 4 tweets, 1 min read
The below tweet basically acts like a test to see how strategic remainers are.

If there really is a dormant 48% + n demographic ready & waiting for a national party to campaign on instant rejoin now the LibDens would be running on it.

Rejoiners need to think & act smarter.
Fight the battle you can win now..not the battle you dream of winning in 5 years time.
A plausible scenario

LibDems fight election on closer coop with EU on Erasmus & food standards
Labour campaign for “better Brexit deal”

2024 Coalition then negotiates alignment with EU 2027

Then we take it from there

Or we could all p*ss in the wind for a 2nd ref & Boris wins
This is how it goes

Voters:
1. Repudiate Boris
2. Query Brexit outcome
3. OK closer EU coop
4. OK increased alignment
5. Consider 2nd referendum debate
6. Agree to 2nd referendum

If you think there’s a way to skip 1-4 & get straight to 6 within a year...ain’t going to happen.

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More from @nicktolhurst

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
6 Jun
The big economic secret of the UK is that growth no longer matters that much to most people.

In a highly competitive saturated society, prices & wages can no longer rise by that much - as in the past - so most extra income is merely squeezed into house price inflation.
2/
You might think this rather unimportant but in a way it’s the most crucial factor in UK society.

As
1. UK small with limited supply
2. London property acts as a reserve currency

This is increasingly leading to a more perverse system where...
3/
London/SE property market creates so much higher equity that it can generate enough to finance 2nd homes & buy-to-let market.

Which explains why UK now has one of the lowest owner occupier rates in the west - despite having lax mortgage rules & a large finance sector.
Read 10 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
5 Jun
Some people need to ponder this:
There's 2 ways UK rejoins EU/Europe

1. Somehow engineer a 2nd referendum when over 40% don't want one...& then win one narrowly, then somehow convince EU rejoining won't be followed by chaos after next UK election.

Or there's a 2nd option..
2nd option is to increasingly cooperate & align with EU in a sensible, methodical way.
That doesnt require culture wars.

This will be slower, sure but means that govts (plural) commit to sensible behaviour over a period of years as a process.

Now the question you need to ask...
3/
Which path is likely to:
1. Work
2. Be sustainable
3. Won't plunge UK into a vicious culture war
4. Be amenable to the EU

Its going to be a slog.
And for that we need a coalition.
Of all people, parties, sectors.
Read 4 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
3 Jun
As someone who's interested in both football & politics and listens to many podcasts on both - I've noticed a strange development.

Everytime players take the knee for #BLM and they're booed the football journalists are outraged & seem at a loss to know why its happens.

& yet...
2/
And yet these journalists are working for the Telegraph, Mail & Sun - the very papers that have spent the last 2 years not just ridiculing #BLM but actively villifying it.

Would those literally booing their own players be doing so if they hadn't been whipped up by the media?
3/
So the next time sports journalists from the Telegraph, Mail or Sun bemoans the booing they should be called out for being complicit in this.
Read 4 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
2 Jun
This is what will happen:

UK govt won’t run risk of Scotland or N Ireland leaving so Brexit must be shown to, at the very least, not to have been a disaster. The election is in 3 years away which means...Johnson will spend the next 3 years pumping money through the country.
Thing is UK been doing this already with furlough. This means lots of suppressed demand + johnsonian grand “ leveling up” projects & Brexit baubles while trade & industry stutters likely means higher inflation.

Which leads to..
3/
Inflation in this form is basically excess money in a slow growing economy and where do Brits put that..?

...in housing of course.
As always.

House price boosts is basically 80% of its core vote sorted so Johnson won’t mind that.
Read 7 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
2 Jun
One of the many perverse outcomes of Brexit is that it may have simultaneously led to an increase in EU immigration but also a decrease in EU “hospitality workers”.

This sounds, at first, counter intuitive but increasingly looks likely to have happened.

This is how...
2/
The major impact Brexit had on EU citizens was to force upon them a choice:
Stay in UK to get settled status & avoid visa/border issues...or leave.

We now know that more EU citizens successfully applied for settled status than were thought to have been in UK in 2016..

But..
3/
While the settled status issue may have increased “committed long term” stays...Brexit itself made seasonal work for young EUers not based all year round in the UK in the seasonally fluctuating hospitality industry more difficult.
Read 5 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
31 May
I only really understood Britain when I moved to Germany.

I remember the penny drop moment when I met the richest, most educated Munich residents speaks with a Bavarian accent. Whereas in England Alexander Armstrong sounds like he comes from from Berkshire.
Interesting replies to this.
People either don’t get it or never thought about it before.

But the more you think about it the darker it gets.
The English class system doesn’t just iron out dialects - it transfer rich successful people out of their regional cultures.

It’s a...
3/
It’s almost a Darwinian cultural selection process.
I have a theory this also explains why so many English villages so much better than many English towns.
Local cultural regional pride of local elites is far weaker in England - as they literally don’t see themselves as such.
Read 5 tweets

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