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4 Jun, 6 tweets, 5 min read
BEV MARKET DEVELOPMENT

Norway is leading the world in BEV market development and we will now start using the quarterly sales in the Norway market as a proxy window to view the vehicles that are being offered for sale in Europe

Here is Norway market share by vehicle for 2021 Q1
As many of you know, we have also started analysing the characteristics of BEVs offered in Europe using vehicles available in Germany as our reference point and the ADAC database as our data source

This is one of the charts from our current analysis
Our summary charts already include some "Tesla Model 3 ICEV Competitors" selected by ADAC plus most of the top-selling BEVs in Norway

- and we will add more over time to build out a more complete picture of the higher volume vehicles

Here are the Starting Prices for each model
And here are the Range numbers for the BEVs
Response or Acceleration Performance is another key measure of these vehicles
And Power Consumption plays an important role in vehicle Range

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More from @jpr007

JPR007 Profile picture
2 Jun
Why it's reality check time for the EV skateboard chassis

Ford canceled plans to develop an electric model for its Lincoln brand based on the Rivian's skateboard rolling chassis Image
The idea of the self-contained EV skateboard chassis has become so alluring that startups, suppliers and even automakers are marketing them as plug-and-play solutions on which customers can simply add a body, also called "top hat"
But like many catchy ideas on the path to electromobility, this one is also stumbling as it meets the hard reality of going from vision to vehicle development and manufacturing
Read 51 tweets
JPR007 Profile picture
2 Jun
U.S. Car Models Most Impacted By The Microchip Shortage

Hundreds of thousands of vehicles have been taken out of production in North America due to an ongoing microchip shortage

statista.com/chart/24969/ve… Image
An AutoForecast Solutions report covered by Car and Driver reveals the extent to which North American automakers have been impacted by the microchip shortage

Ford has taken 346,616 vehicles out of production while General Motors has reduced its total by 277,966
Vital for everything from a vehicle's onboard computer and infotainment system to important safety features like anti-lock breaks and stability control, the chips have been in short supply around the world for months
Read 7 tweets
JPR007 Profile picture
1 Jun
TESLA SHANGHAI - 2021 Q2

"CICC expects that in Q2 2021 Tesla's factory in China will be able to supply 107,000 units, including domestic sales and exports"

This is very difficult to imagine

Let us examine the facts

1. The current Scheduled Capacity for M3 + MY is 84,375 units
2. Stated Capacity for M3 + MY is 112,500 units per quarter

- but this requires 4-shift operation on both lines

- the M3 line is running 4 shifts

- the MY line is only running 2 shifts

Hence the Scheduled Capacity of 84,375 units for 2021 Q2
3. Shanghai Production in April 2021 was 30,494 units

- so May + June would have to total 76,506 units in order to hit a total of 107,000 units for the quarter
Read 7 tweets
JPR007 Profile picture
1 Jun
The dream of the truly driverless car is officially dead

Look beyond the headlines and you'll find human overlords watch from afar over purportedly automated systems
businessinsider.com/driverless-car…
Lyft's quest for driverless cars is over

The company recently announced the sale of its self-driving unit to the auto giant Toyota

The move isn't surprising

Despite hefty investment, Lyft's driverless utopia, like many others, remains more fiction than fact
It wasn't supposed to be like this

In 2016 Lyft President John Zimmer predicted that driverless cars would "account for the majority of Lyft rides within five years"

By 2025, Zimmer reasoned, "private car ownership will all but end in major US cities"
Read 18 tweets
JPR007 Profile picture
31 May
Now it's a matter of survival for the VDA

Germany's car industry association VDA is at loggerheads with its most important member, the Volkswagen Group

On the surface, it's about membership fees, but in fact it's about everything for the VDA
wiwo.de/unternehmen/au…
The dispute is remarkable

VDA versus Volkswagen

Germany's car industry association against Germany's largest car company

The VDA wants to increase the contributions from its members, Volkswagen does not want to go along
VW, however, is not concerned with money but with principle :

VW boss Herbert Diess does not see why he should throw money at an association which, from VW's point of view, is useless and sometimes even damaging to its business
Read 25 tweets
JPR007 Profile picture
23 May
OBSERVATION OF THE DAY 20210523

Economics Of Tesla Model 3

The Blue line on this chart gives us a very simple way to think of the economics of the Tesla Model 3 :

Market Price = €20,000 + €100 x Power in kW

- and note that this number INCLUDES Tariffs and Delivery Charges
Clearly this is just an observed empirical outcome

- but we can impute various things from it

1. The launch of production at Giga Grünheide should allow Tesla to reduce prices by more than 10% just from the elimination of Tariffs and reduction of Delivery Charges
2. This could imply a revised formula for an equivalent European-made vehicle, before counting any other savings :

Market Price = €19,000 + €90 x Power in kW

3. A 200 kW vehicle would then price at €37,000

4. A 150 kW vehicle would then price at €32,500
Read 7 tweets

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