Thread by @rcolvile

Have written on the catch-up row, and what it tells us about the (many) battles ahead. Quick summary below (1/?) thetimes.co.uk/article/plucki…

Boris told the nation in April that after an “absolutely unimaginable year for... everybody in education”, his biggest priority was “the loss of learning for so many children and young people.” But when Sir Kevan Collins came up with a plan, he wouldn't fund it. How come?

First things first. As this @CPSThinkTank/@PublicFirst_PF report by @racheljanetwolf, @jonathansimons & @racheljanetwolf shows, catch-up is vitally necessary, as parents/public both recognise. cps.org.uk/research/lost-…

The most popular and effective option is a plan that involves tutoring, and limited extra time in school tightly focused on core academics, esp maths. In other words, pretty much the Collins plan.

But the Collins plan was also ££££ - effectively a 10% increase in school budgets for next three years. And there was concern over detail of the plan (eg whether you could actually stop schools just padding each lesson by five minutes then claiming the cash)

The big thing though was the worry that if they gave into this ultimatum, they have to give in to others. As I say in the piece, the queue of people demanding cash is already stretching round the Downing Street block.

MPs are about to vote down aid cuts (the only spending cut that is actually popular with Tory voters). Then you've got free school meals, Universal Credit, furlough, NHS pay, NHS backlogs, social care...

One common narrative is that because the recovery has been swifter than expected (vaccines for the win!) Rishi has more room to play with. What's not usually appreciated is that rising borrowing costs are rapidly eating into that, and may end up swallowing all of it and more.

(A quick primer: bond yields have risen due to recovery/winding down of QE. Bank of England's duty to curb inflation means that if it gets seriously out of hand, they will have to raise interest rates, increasing bond yields even more. Hello, debt spiral.)

In the colourful words of one insider, we've not merely plucked the magic money tree bare to pay for the pandemic, but chopped it down and burned the wood for kindling.

So the central dilemma for govt is: there are an awful lot of people with very strong cases for extra cash (like Sir Kevan!). But they can't say yes to all of them, or maybe even any of them. In short, stormy weather ahead...

There's obviously much more on this in my column, and much more detail on the behind-the-scenes thinking. Please give it a read thetimes.co.uk/article/plucki…