1. Most important takeaway: This is not a course correction. It is a mere amendment to the disastrous vaccine policy. Why do I say this?
2. The decision to provide “free” vaccines to states for 18-44 is welcome, but it comes with no intent to streamline vaccine distribution by making it dependent on objective, normative and verifiable standards. The arbitrary allocations to states will continue.
3. The only difference is that instead of a three-tiered pricing regime, there will be a two-tier pricing regime as 25 % of vaccine allocations will be to private sector. Already, how this is happening, and what prices are being charged is shrouded in opacity. This won’t change.
4. Since the actual vaccine output of the two vaccine producers is not verifiable (or even reliable) the 25 per cent allocation of vaccines to private companies will remain unverifiable. No mechanism to check prices either.
5. Despite all the brave talk nothing in the PM’s speech actually confirms any significant deliveries of vaccines to India in the foreseeable future. All the talk of other vaccines means nothing within a 3-4 month time frame.
6. That the Centre is going to now procure vaccines is only an affirmation of its costly and late realisation that asking States to procure vaccines was a dim-witted move. This change is welcome. PM is graceless is perpetuating the lie that the States sought the dim-witted move.
7. Instead, if the PM had said the Govt is going to procure so many vaccines within a span of 1-2 months, that would have been newsworthy. India sought a U-turn of its vaccine policy, instead NaMo gave it a minor, aimless detour. More sorrow awaits this land. (END)
THREAD on BBIL’s saga of an incredibly spun yarn, based on its most recent release, today. 1. Starts with a treatise on vaccine making for the intellectually-challenged journalists - “complex and multifactorial process” with 100s of steps, it says.
2. Explains how the regulatory pathway is complex and takes time, effort, coordination with supply chains, etc. Generally, more fluff
3. Now comes to the real deal - that scaling production is a "step-by-step process". (BTW, what manufacturing process isn’t?). But here’s the innocently-couched punch: “There is a four-month lag time for COVAXIN to translate into actual vaccination.”
THREAD - on how companies mislead, and the media obliges obediently or unwittingly — the case of the elusive Covaxin shot. 1. As vaccine shortages, especially of Covaxin, mount across the country, BBIL issued a release y’day announcing a 200 m dose/annum expansion in capacity.
2. The benefit of the expanded capacity will become available by “Q4 2021”, it said. Preposterously, BBIL claimed that its capacity volumes would now exceed 1 billion doses. Now that is a lot of vaccines.
3. In comparison, Oxford-AZ’s entire planned planned global doses (incl from SII) for 2021 is 2.1 billion doses. Pfizer-BioNTech’s capacity is 3 billion, of which only 2.96 m doses remain available for the rest of 2021.
THREAD
On why the argument that India ought to have vaccinated its "own" people before supplying other countries is misplaced for several reasons. First, the vaccine manufactured by SII is subject to conditions from original funders (not GoI), Covax, the multilateral facility.
2. These orders pre-date the GoI's orders both in time and qty. The Covax facility provided funding to AstraZeneca/SII conditional on supplies, so there are contractual obligations. It is another matter that the NaMo Govt tried use it to fly the Vishwaguru flag.
3. There is simply no way SII’s obligations could have been avoided. So far, about 180 million doses have been delivered in India; about 66 m doses have been exported. Significantly, this 1/3 ratio (roughly) may be the division of supplies between domestic and exports in future
THREAD 1. On Serum Institute of India, which is among the highest profit margins in India, among companies with a turnover of over Rs. 5,000 crores (h/t @AnilKSood5 )
SII’s operating margin (operating profit/turnover) has NEVER fallen below 50 per cent ever since fiscal 2012!
2. SII is not a very large company - its total sales (2020) was just a little less than Rs. 6,000 crores. In comparison Tata Steel’s turnover was 1.4 lakh crores! But what is striking is its strike rate — its profit/turnover ratio.
3. In fact its average net profit margin (net profit/turnover) in the last decade has been about 44 %. Now, having enjoyed that kind of normal profit, one can sympathise with Poonawala when says he would like to make super profits!
THREAD 1. Here is an example of an external agency providing damage limitation services to the NaMo regime, which is struggling to explain its disastrous vaccination policy. orfonline.org/expert-speak/n…
2. Essentially, it ticks all the right boxes by extolling the virtues of the “largest” vaccination drive without neither respect for facts on the ground nor for the scale of the task at the hand of the Govt.
3. Instead, it asks that public “expectations” of a quick and comprehensive rollout should be “managed” and “toned down”. Now, that sounds sinister, doesn’t it? Basically, it says universal rollout of the vaccine is off the table.
On why there is no light at the end of India's vaccine tunnel. 1. The affidavit filed by the Centre in the SC today states (h/t livelaw.com)
The Centre says that the current total monthly capacities of the three current vaccine suppliers is 85.03 m doses.
2. What does this imply for the ongoing vaccination drive?
Breaking capacities down to total daily doses enables enables comparison with what we need and where we stand. Daily capacities (million doses):
SII - 2.17 m
BBIL - 0.67 m
Sputnik - 0.01 m
Total - 2.85 m
3. Compare this to the vaccination rates in early April when the 7-day moving avg peaked at about 3.7 m doses per day. The shortfall NOW is about 25 %.