🧵New York's plan to run concerts with vaccinated and vaccinated sections
Raises some interesting issues (supposing spread of covid at such a concert, which is unlikely outdoors)
Should public health encourage the spread of #covid19 among the intentionally unvaccinated?
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Raises some interesting issues (supposing spread of covid at such a concert, which is unlikely outdoors)
Should public health encourage the spread of #covid19 among the intentionally unvaccinated?
1/
https://twitter.com/TheEliKlein/status/1402042007711895552
One response, as below, is that we should mix vaccinated and unvaccinated in order to reduce the probability of infection in the latter (i.e., indirect protection or herd immunity)
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https://twitter.com/greg_boes1/status/1402088718190665740?s=20
This might be a good strategy insofar as unvaccinated people want to be vaccinated but just haven't had access yet - it protects them until they get vaccinated
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However, in the long-term, the level of herd immunity is a combination of vaccine-derived immunity and post-infection immunity (including post-vaccination infections)
For next (northern) winter, we arguably want this level as high as possible to reduce hospital pressures
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For next (northern) winter, we arguably want this level as high as possible to reduce hospital pressures
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If #covid19 is not about to be eliminated from high incidence countries, and not everyone chooses to get vaccinated, it might be better for long-term public health to *promote* the spread of the virus during summer (as some have argued we should have done last year)
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5/
This would have two results:
(1) Infections among the intentionally unvaccinated result in immunity (and occur in summer when the health system is least under pressure, which is good for these people and others), contributing to herd immunity next winter
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(1) Infections among the intentionally unvaccinated result in immunity (and occur in summer when the health system is least under pressure, which is good for these people and others), contributing to herd immunity next winter
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and (2), as I have previously noted, post-vaccination infections might provide a net long-term public health benefit by "boosting" the immunity of vaccinated individuals, including against currently circulating variants
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https://twitter.com/ID_ethics/status/1389457860761833475
So in summary - more spread of #covid19 in 2021 northern summer in highly vaccinated populations might be a good thing in terms of long-term herd immunity levels and future winter pressure on hospitals
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There are of course lots of caveats, including the need to protect the unintentionally unvaccinated until they have access (see post 3), as well as questions of whether public health should stop trying to segregate society & interfere with seasonal viral epidemiology...
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