Suraj Profile picture
9 Jun, 12 tweets, 3 min read
This thread updates Indian vaccine order data as of June 8 2021.

First an overview of all orders by the central government paid for or advance made. Current cumulative total is 1055.5 million doses ordered.

General observation: Mar/Apr/May orders are approx 6 weeks apart. This offers insight into production rate.

SII: 100m doses at 6 week cadence, translates to 67m/month rate in March (100/6*4)

Next order is 110m order 6 weeks later, implying 73m/month production rate April.

The June order of 250m doses is harder to parse, but if production rate is 100m/month, it means next SII order will be ~10 weeks from now.

So the order cadence here aligns closely with stated SII production rate estimates for the same months.

Using the same approach, Covaxin March order 20m implies monthly rate of 17m doses. April order was 50m translating to production rate 33m.

Both these are close to stated rates - Krishna Ella mentioned 30m/month in April.

The 190m order in June is harder to interpret.

However, the history of orders to date has a very visible pattern - they align roughly to know production rates in those months.

The June order volume is abnormally large. This may reflect optimism regarding supply volume, or the need for front loaded Capex, or both.

Now looking at another chart. How do cumulative orders each month translate to rate of consumption ? Here’s data comparing central orders vs cumulative consumption:

To date, cumulative order total 1055.5m and consumption 239m doses as of today.

Each month, cumulative orders to then exceed consumption by 90-150m doses.

May data is a little misleading - only central orders listed, but consumption is from central+state+private orders.

These datapoints show two things:
1. The companies and Govt communicate about production level for next ~2 months, and Govt places orders tailored to that rate and need for further Capex.
2. Any given month, pending order volume is ~10 crore more than usage to then.

How about state orders ? These were very hard to find details for various reasons. A collection of all news items indicates a cumulative over volume of at least 240 million doses by all state combined.

However, they received only a fraction of that in May - approx 10%.

This mechanism is ending on June 21, so order data going forward will be easier to track since it is just central + some private orders.

Given the quantum of pending orders, there’s no real concern of lack of orders, and data shows there’s never really been.

Final observations:
1. Govt appears to prefer to keep powder dry by not overspending on huge EU-style bulk orders that won’t be satisfied for 6-12 months. What if there’s a crisis needing immediate funds to buy other things ? Wave 2 needed Oxygen, remdisivir and more.

2. It supports domestic initiatives. It supported Covaxin, and now gave Biological-E a huge upfront payment. A Zycov-D order can be expected in near future, and potentially a Sputnik one.

June dose rate is closing in on April peak, and should exceed it by month end.


• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Suraj

Suraj Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @surajbrf

25 May
This thread examines vaccination data from April and May (to date). It also looks at state/zone level, and some priority behavior by states.

All data from MOHFW and PIB daily reports:

First, an aggregate picture:

It has regularly been stated that April saw extremely high vaccination. In total numbers, this is true, over 90 million, increasing from 64M to 154M. However, daily data shows this is heavily biased to the first half.

The April 7 day vaccination moving average drops to well below 3m/day in the second half of the month. And end of month it is 2.3M/day. May performance on the other hand has touched 2m/day as of May 24.

Read 23 tweets
22 May
There’s a lot of recent handwaving about Covaxin focusing on sensationalism around ‘lack of WHO EUL’. The status of this information can be readily found:…

@BharatBiotech submitted the EOI only a month ago, with pre-submission meeting in May/June.

The WHO guidelines are listed here:…

This qualifies everything from the trials process to manufacturing.

An interesting example here is J&J, which received an ok of its US/Netherlands manufacturing sites in March:

But then the entire US production has been under question. All US J&J vaccines used are imported from Netherlands.…

Read 11 tweets
17 May
I'll try to interpret the *data* I've presented in this context:

The Indian approach cab be best characterized as opportunistic. It considers that certain things can be affected and certain things cannot. It attempts to maximize what can be leveraged. Let us explore:

Given the choice to develop N vaccine candidates (N can be few or many), certain invariants hold:
* Each of N takes 3 steps to approval.
* Each will take a minimum time to clear all 3.
* Addi resources or options will not speed this up ('9 women and a baby in 1 month..')

Therefore during the discovery phase the govt chose to be an enabler. As Poonawalla's tweets in Apr-Dec 2020 showed, Govt facilitated their scaling up and encouraged them to sign big deals, and start production early.

Read 11 tweets
15 May
This article exhaustively collects order data and current delivery data for the US, India, EU/UK plus some other countries.

It specifically addresses the assertion that India failed by not making large bulk orders during mid 2020 like the west did by spending billions .

Let us look at US data since they were at the forefront with Operation Warp Speed; all numbers here are backed by reference data.

This shows how much of total US order volume has so far been fulfilled:

Observations: three of six OWS contracts have yielded 0 doses to date. The J&J contract has yielded 15m doses, all imported because entire US production has been discarded for QC reasons, and they have been written off as a source:…

Read 23 tweets
5 May
Recently various sources have pitched the Pfizer vaccine for India. This parlays the recent western ‘branding’ effort differentiating Pfizer, but it is known that this vaccine has some unique technical requirements.

This thread analyzes the Pfizer logistics in depth.

The vaccine must be stored at -60 to -80C, i.e. ultra low temp (ULT), much colder than normal freezer (-20C) or fridge (2 to 8C). Such storage systems are costly but cost depends on capacity. These have alarm systems to notify of failure or temperature fluctuations.

The Pfizer transport box shows ~5000 doses = 10L tray volume. It is packed with dry ice and can be transported for no more than 10 days unopened, 15 if dry ice recharged. Each pallet has IoT comm to notify Pfizer of problems:……

Read 24 tweets
4 May
Great thread that takes apart WSJ's predictable opposition to the TRIPS waiver that would help expand COVID vaccine production. The @WSJ is stridently focused on avoiding any attempt to learn from history.

@prasannavishy @c_aashish @amargov @centerofright
The TRIPS waiver was first mooted in October 2020 by India and South Africa:…

A wider document was circulated in January 2021 with the signatories list expanding dramatically:…

Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!