Thread by @sritara

Thread on the yawning gap between vaccine procurement and production

1. This is in the light of the Govt announcement on June 8 (VK Paul, head, Group on Vaccination) that the Govt is set to procure 770 million doses b/w Aug and Dec 2021.

2. To place the numbers in context: India has so far delivered about 235 m doses, of which about 90 % are Covishield. In April, the avg daily vaccination rate was 2.935 m, which dipped to 1.928 m/day in May - fall of 34% . Things improved in June, but not convincingly enough.

3. In the first 4 days of June the daily strike rate was almost 4 m doses but yesterday it was just 2.740, a drop of almost one-third. IOW, things look up but not convincingly enough.

4. The daily vaccination rate can be treated as a fairly accurate proxy of actual production of the two vaccine companies SII and BBIL. This is mainly because the Govt’s output numbers are neither reliable nor accurate.

5. So, while the massive procurement planned by the Govt in Aug-Dec is welcome, this by no means ensures supplies, especially for the quantities contracted for which the Govt says it has paid a 30% advance.

6. First, wrt SII. The Govt says it has contracted supplies of 250 m doses of Covishield. Incidentally @ of 50 m doses/month, this is what SII is supposed to be producing now. Hence, there is no sig expansion, unless its output is going to be exported in the days ahead.

7. 2nd, supplies of BBIL’s Covaxin are to amount to 190 m doses - @ of 38 m doses/month. We are expected that Covaxin supplies are to increase almost 4 times within 2-3 months. This is highly suspect.

8. Covaxin has been THE weak link in the Indian vaccine drive. BBIL has struggled to increase capacity and the NaMo Govt has failed to expand Covaxin production at more sites and by more producers.

9. 3rd, 300 m doses are to come from Biological E’s protein subunit vaccine, Corbevax. The Govt is reported to have paid an advance of Rs. 1500 crores, about Rs. 50 per shot. The technology is exciting because of the high immunity response it is reported to draw.

10. But not a single vaccine of this platform has been approved for use by major regulators anywhere in the world. Novavax (US) is the leading candidate in this race. Countries across the world have signed up for delivery of millions of its doses even before approval.

11. Corbevax is reported to be undergoing Phase 3 trials but between trials and initial production to scaled up full-tilt production is likely to be significantly longer than the window the Govt appears to want us believe. The problems of scaling capacity are too well known.

12. It thus appears that the flurry of announcements in last few days is aimed at lulling a restless population. The Govt’s moves suggest that it has attempted to counter one set of criticisms - that the NaMo Govt did not order enough vaccines from suppliers soon enough.

13. But ordering vaccines in a vaccine-starved world is meaningless if vaccine production is not going to actually increase. On that front, the NaMo Govt is still in slumber.

14. It has neither expanded Covaxin prod to other companies - private and PSUs - nor has it shown an urgency in putting an ecosystem for vaccine manufacturing.

15. We will have to wait till the end of June to see whether there is any meaningful, sustained and reliable increase in vaccine output. Until then NaMo’s vaccine strategy rests on a wing and a prayer. So will millions of Indians hoping to get vaccinated before Wave 3. (END)