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12 May, 6 tweets, 3 min read
New weekly @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths out. 158 500 excess natural deaths from 3May20 to 8May21.

samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Relative to expected, mortality remains particularly high in NC and FS (both > 50% higher than expected).
Last week marked 1 year since we first identified excess deaths at a national level in the data. On an age-standardised basis, South Africa ranks in the top five countries for which excess deaths are
measured.
Over that 12 months (3May20-1May21), approximately 37% more natural deaths than expected were recorded.
Unnatural deaths continue to follow the expected trend
On the testing side, proportions testing positive 2-8May continue to increase in almost every province (exceptions being EC and KZN). Time to start exercising caution. Take care.

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More from @tomtom_m

Tom Moultrie Profile picture
17 Mar
New weekly @MRCza excess deaths report out. 148 500 excess natural deaths between 3 May 2020 and 13 March 2021, an increase of 1 700 in the last week.

Report available here --> samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Excess deaths nationally at 250/100k, with (after adjusting for age structure) highest in EC (405) and KZN (366). Lowest in Gauteng (171).
Some provinces (EC -- 11%, WC --11%, NW --14%) have p-scores (observed to expected deaths in the week, expressed as a %) approaching zero and in some cases at below the upper prediction bound.
Read 4 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
3 Feb
New @mrcZA excess deaths report released today. 132 000 excess natural deaths from 3/5/20 to 30/1/21, up 7 000 from last week, a substantial reduction from the the 15.7k in week 2 and 12.5k in week 3.
50k excess deaths since 27/12/20.
Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Sharp reductions in excess deaths nationally, and in all provinces (e.g. ZA and WC)
p-scores (observed deaths::expected deaths) continue to decline in every province:
Read 4 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
22 Jan
Quite a few people have been sharing a copy of part of a South African death certificate #onhere, (including some medical practitioners) claiming that this shows that Covid deaths are being exaggerated, misidentified, and misreported. A thread on Cause of Death Certification. /1
2/ What was being shared? Let’s look at one of the images.

Other tweets have made the opposite claim: (e.g.: )
3/ The Notification of Death form in South Africa, DHA1663, is in two parts. A sample can be found on pp9-12 of this document: samrc.ac.za/sites/default/…
Read 27 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
13 Jan
New SAMRC Excess Deaths report is out, covering the period to 5 Jan 2021. 83 918 estimates excess natural deaths since 6 May 2020. Mortality in the last week of 2020 (starting 30 Dec) 193% higher than normal in WC; 220% higher in KZN; 131% nationally.
Ridgeplot showing provincial p-scores by province and week.
Report available for download at samrc.ac.za/reports/report…. Some online figures still being updated.
Read 6 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
8 Oct 20
For those advocating a "Targeted Protection" strategy ... Some observations. [A brief thread]
1) According to the 2016 South African Community Survey from @StatsSA: In 2016, 4.5m (8.1% of the total) South Africans were over the age of 60. [As the population is aging slowly, this proportion is almost certainly a little higher now, nearly 5 years later]
2) Of these elderly (aged 60+), nearly 2 in 5 (38.0%) live in households with a least one person in primary or secondary school. Adding in those in tertiary education (aged up to 24) increases the proportion to 38.8%.
Read 7 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
12 Aug 20
Latest excess mortality surveillance report out for South Africa: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
33 500 excess deaths since 6 May.
Also, supplementary report: samrc.ac.za/sites/default/…
In three provinces, excess mortality exceeded 100% (i.e. double the 'normal' number) for two weeks.
samrc.ac.za/sites/default/…
Western Cape mortality still 27% higher than 'normal', 13 weeks after excess deaths emerged.
Read 5 tweets

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