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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
@DrEricDing
Jun 10, 2021 • 32 tweets • 21 min read • Read on X
PAY ATTENTION—the #DeltaVariant is the biggest worry & becoming more dominant worldwide. Why?

📍More contagious

📍More severe (⬆️hospitalization risk)

📍Lower vaccine efficacy/neutralization—1 dose just not enough.

Video 📺 part 1 of 2 #COVID19

HT @VickiGSP @IndependentSage
2) It’s critical to recognize that the #DeltaVariant is rising underneath the decrease of the #AlphaVariant #B117. Many have been complacent about this. But Delta is doubling every week now in 🇬🇧! Image
3) India 🇮🇳 doctors have been sharing concerns that #DeltaVariant is more severe / affecting more kids. Singapore 🇸🇬 MOH is also warning it is affecting children a lot. Image
4) Yet UK 🇬🇧 govt made a critical mistake of no masks in schools and no improvements in ventilation or air quality. Image
5) So what do we now do? Here is what this means for infection control of the new #DeltaVariant worldwide. Do not get complacent.

Video part 2. Thx again to @VickiGSP.

(@IndependentSage is one of the leading 🇬🇧 COVID expert groups—and often in agreement with @CovidActionGrp)
6) Nobody wants another lockdown damnit!! So we must act fast to avoid it… here are 6 ways how:

(Video part 3 of 3, by @VickiGSP of @IndependentSage)
7) Here are the warnings from UK experts. The details of how #DeltaVariant has 2.5x higher hospitalizations risk than #AlphaVariant #B117 is detailed in the below thread 🧵
8) There is now RED (with high confidence) that 📌 “transmissibility appears greater” and also 📌“reduced vaccine effectiveness” of the #DeltaVariant.

This is no longer speculation. This warning was issued by the CDC equivalent of England - @PHE_uk.
9) While the vaccines do mostly work on the #DeltaVariant, the main problem is that 1 dose simply just isn’t enough anymore. Here is the latest LANCET published study. It walks thru the evidence how 1 dose is so weak. 1 dose strategy countries (cough Canada 🇨🇦, cough) must adapt.
10) Because #DeltaVariant starts at a much lower neutralization, its efficacy drop when adding co-morbidities could be even more steep. See below how these two compound together…
11) for those who still don’t believe it… “show me the hospitalizations” you ask? Well here it is… exponential rise in hospitalizations in the UK 🇬🇧 now because of #DeltaVariant despite >70% one dose, and 42% full vaccinated… hospital numbers don’t lie.
12) So…. Is it surging in the US? Ummm, yeah. Really damn fast too. It’s the fastest growing variant currently, and #DeltaVariant projected by models to become dominant in the US by July… just like in UK’s footsteps. Hence let’s watch carefully what happened in UK and India.
13) In case the above graphic wasn’t clear… #DeltaVariant #B16172 is colored with magenta in the modeling of how dominant it will soon become in across many states.
14) There is also some concerns about reinfections… not definitive yet, but usually reinfection risks correlate with vaccine efficacy/neutralization changes
15) As Dr Fauci warned recently: “The problem you get into … is that a single dose only provides about ~30% effectiveness [against #DeltaVariant]—so that is really an issue you gotta be careful”, as Fauci tells @nehakhanna_07 on @IndiaAheadNews.
16) Here is the awesome full length 5 min video on the #DeltaVariant (threaded in 3 parts above) on YouTube by @VickiGSP of @IndependentSage. Hats 🎩 off to Vicki!

17) In case you need more data on the #DeltaVariant and kids in UK… this is the contact tracing of positive cases.
18) And here is the heatmap of the pediatric age groups seeing fast growth of #DeltaVariant
19) And here is the pediatric warning on the #DeltaVariant from Singapore 🇸🇬 health ministry
20) here is the warning from India 🇮🇳 doctors on pediatric cases of #DeltaVariant during its recent surge driven by #B16172.
21) Bad - #DeltaVariant is now up to 91% of all #SARSCoV2 samples in the UK 🇬🇧. Total domination of the #B16172 is in sight. It replaced the previously fast #alphavariant but which is not fast enough anymore compared to Delta.
22) politicians often act too late. Scientists often too shy to shout from the roof tops early…. What you get is inaction by politicians and vocalization by scientists until too late.

So I’m here trying to raise the alarm— because there is a critical need for early action. Image
23) Cases are rising, especially in the unvaccinated. This is why we need urgently 2 doses + mitigation. Image
24) is it a coincidence that UK 🇬🇧 govt always falls behind in reacting to #COVID19 surges? No. It’s bad leadership.

@GabrielScally is very right.
25) look at this sharp takeover of #DeltaVariant in becoming dominant in the UK 🇬🇧 — we are rather certain it will happen in many other countries too. We cannot ignore this.
26) #DeltaVariant just caused 77 additional outbreaks in educational settings in England in just the last week according to @dgurdasani1. Wow.
27) I keep staring at this table… 23 deaths among unvaccinated, while 12 deaths in fully vaccinated. Approximately ~40% of UK is 2-dose vaccinated (lower earlier)… but that is still a quite a vaccine breakthrough number… 12 vs 23. Have to keep eyes peeled on #DeltaVariant Image
28) I’m not the only one worried about these weird numbers with breakthrough cases with the #DeltaVariant. 30% among fully 2-dose vaccinated is a lot… granted that elderly are more likely fully vaccinated but then that points to waning immunity in elderly.
29) Waning immunity in the elderly is indeed one of the other suspected reasons and concern with the #DeltaVariant— see video…
30) welp—The #DeltaVariant is soon going to take over Europe says WHO Europe chief, who just urgently issued a new warning. Delta is surging in the US as well now.
31) serious—Outbreak even w/ 2 dose of mRNA vaccines—🇨🇦 hospital—16 patients & 6 healthcare staff #DeltaVariant positive. 6/16 patients & 5/6 HCWs had received 2 doses of #COVID19 vaccine; 7 patients & 1 healthcare worker had 1 dose. 1 patient now in ICU.
cbc.ca/news/canada/ca…
32) this #DeltaVariant emerging is why we need to still mask even if vaccinated. And there is suggested by top vaccinologist @PeterHotez that a 3rd shot booster is maybe even needed because of delta.

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Apr 13
📈Measles epidemic trajectory is worsening in the U.S.—it has NOT flattened as some claimed. The surge continues—comparison of newest versus recent outbreak graph. Majority are unvaccinated, but there’s enough unvaccinated in many clusters for outbreaks.
cnn.com/health/measles…

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2) here is another way to visualize the measles epidemic. Another annoying thing is that although 95% not double vaccinated, 5% of the previous 113 cases were vaccinated— which means that there is waning immunity or vaccine breakthrough with sufficiently big outbreak possible.
3) I specifically wanted about this issue that pockets of unvaccinated could still trigger outbreaks, and vaccine breakthroughs possible due to vaccine waning & if surrounded by pockets of low vaccinations. See my warning oped below. 👇
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Apr 10
🐄—"Experts fear that H5N1 avian flu… may have been transmitted through a type of cattle feed called “poultry litter”—mix of poultry poop, spilled feed, feathers, and other waste scraped from the floors of industrial chicken and turkey production plants."
telegraph.co.uk/global-health/…
Europe does not allow cattle to be fed poultry feed. US does. This helps explain why US is seeing a cow outbreak of avian flu.
3) CDC warns against chicken and bird exposures and direct contact with poop. Yet why the hell are we feeding cattle poultry litter??? Corporate farms are so stupid and greedy.
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Apr 9
Global CO2 levels and temperatures. But but but we scientists are merely “fear mongering” according to deniers. How about just facing reality? How about precautionary warnings to protect human lives?

@ed_hawkins @MrMatthewTodd #climatecrisis Image
Oh this seems totally fine.
Image
I think we are screwed at this point on limiting temperature rise by 1.5 C. It’ll still take a miracle to avoid 2 C.
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Apr 8
📍BIRD HUNTING AVIAN FLU DEATH—WHO reports that a 21 year old young man with no underlying conditions suddenly died of #avianflu in Vietnam. He started with a cough/fever, but died 12 days later with severe pneumonia and ARDS. ➡️He had only gone bird hunting recently. BE CAREFUL.
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2) "From 2003 to 25 March 2024, a total of 888 worldwide human cases of influenza A(H5N1), 463 deaths (52% CFR), reported to WHO from 23 countries. Almost all cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H5N1) linked to close contact with infected live or dead birds, or contaminated environments."
who.int/emergencies/di…
3) It is interesting that WHO had to point out he had no contact with any sick or dead birds. Only hunting. And he had gone bird hunting the prior month in Feb 2024. And no other contact with people since. The latency period seems rather long.
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Apr 6
⚠️SPIKE IN MEASLES—113 cases of US measles in Q1 of 2024, double the total for all of 2023. 📍95% of the cases were in those without 2 full doses of MMR💉vaccine (83% cases without any confirmed shots). Across 18 states—top 2 states are Illinois & Florida. 58% of all cases got hospitalized🏥—66% of infected kids <5 years old hospitalized. 61% of adults 20+ hospitalized. Please take measles seriously. Don’t listen to RFK Jr.
cdc.gov/measles/cases-…Image
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2) Moreover, many of the nationwide cases had come from Florida— “Measles cases that turned up in at least three states this year were linked to visits to Florida, federal and state investigators concluded”. FL also doesn’t count non-residents as cases.🤦🏻‍♂️

cbsnews.com/amp/news/measl…
3) I wrote a long WARNING last month about measles surging in the U.S. — we are not addressing the crisis. Florida measles crisis is just a bell weather. And now here we are.

Please take a moment to read— 👇

With @kavitapmd @yaneerbaryam

ca.news.yahoo.com/florida-measle…
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Apr 5
📍CAUTIONARY CAT FOOD OUTBREAK—38 cats died eating #AvianFlu-tainted cat food in an 🇰🇷outbreak last year. Specifically—38 out of the 40 infected shelter cats died within a month—all were kept indoors. Investigators with South Korea’s Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (MAFRA) detected influenza A(#H5N1) virus in cat food. MAFRA officials then ordered the recall of all cat food batches considered at risk of harboring the virus. The bird flu virus entered the cat food stream during an outbreak of the virus on poultry🐓 farms.
petfoodindustry.com/safety-quality…Image
2) Outbreak of avian flu in cats, and subsequent cat deaths has been common—another outbreak in Poland killed 25 cats 🐈‍⬛ in June 2023, reported by the WHO.

“On 27 June 2023, the IHR National Focal Point of Poland notified WHO of unusual deaths in cats across the country. As of 11 July, 47 samples have been tested from 46 cats and one captive caracal, of which 29 were found to be positive for influenza A (H5N1). Fourteen cats are reported to have been euthanized, and a further 11 died, with the last death reported on 30 June.”

who.int/emergencies/di…
3) cats and dogs have died eating infected birds. This has been well documented in the past. Lesson again is make sure food is cooked / sanitary. The cat food manufacturing error with the tainted cat food was hopefully one time thing — but it’s a lesson in the spread.
Read 5 tweets

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