2/7 Gamma (P.1) and Delta (B.1.617.2) continue rising in Connecticut, while Alpha (B.1.1.7) and others decline, following national trends (see next tweet).
3/7 Data from outbreak.info shows that in the US πΊπΈ, Delta (B.1.617.2) is π exponentially, while Alpha (B.1.1.7) is on the π. Despite this, COVID-19 cases are still dropping (for now).
4/7 Compare this to the UK π¬π§, where Delta (B.1.617.2) is dominant and Alpha (B.1.1.7) is approaching (but probably wont reach) extinction. And this is being following by a recent π in cases.
5/7 What will happen in CT and the πΊπΈ? Delta will likely become dominant. The πΊπΈ and π¬π§ have quite similar π rates, so we may even see an π in cases like the π¬π§. But full vaxx can still be effective against Delta, so I'm guessing that it would be a large 'π'.
(data from NYT)
6/7 How we prevent Delta (and other variants) from causing another π is pretty simple. Get vaccinated π.
7/7 This week I'd like to thank Kaya Bilguvar and our partners at YCGA who stood up COVIDseq and significantly increased our capacity. The entire team has been amazing to work with, and we could not have done this π without them ππ medicine.yale.edu/keck/ycga/
**would NOT be a large wave. ugh.
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2/6 We now have 8 cases of B.1.617.2 (5 shown in the π²) and 2 of B.1.617.1. To my knowledge, none of these are associated with βοΈ. Our phylo π² shows that there are at least 4 independent transmission chains of these viruses, spanning at least 3 counties. Definately one to π
3/6 The π in B.1.1.7 shown in tweet 1 is probably a combination of noisy data with few cases and the emergence of other lineages. The figure π 1 is from TaqPath SGTF data, which is a week ahead of the sequencing shown π, where we don't yet see the sudden π.
2/5 The second case of B.1.617.2 was from the same county as the first case (Fairfield), but they are unrelated (see tree π). Neither cases are known to be linked to international travel.
3/5 B.1.1.7 is still π frequency not because the lineage is rapidly expanding, but because it is dying out slower than the non-B.1.1.7 lineages. So the total number of B.1.1.7 cases π by 87% since late March.
2/7 B.1.617 first reported in India comes in 4 different flavors primarily defined by their spike gene mutations. While the CDC currently recognizes all 4 as VOIs, the B.1.617.2 lineage that we detected importantly does not have the E484Q mutation.
3/7 The B.1.617.2 case was not associated with travel, suggesting that there is some level of local transmission. Though the presence of other highly transmissible variants in CT - like B.1.1.7 - may limit its ability to become established.
2/8 Last week we saw a dip in the probably B.1.1.7 cases determined by TaqPath SGTF results. I showed how the sequencing tracked with the SGTF data, and that the dip was probably a blip...
3/8 That "blip" was confirmed: B.1.1.7 π this week in both the sequencing and TaqPath SGTF data (shown π). While we expect B.1.1.7 to continue this trend until it dominates (like in the UK), the good news is that we are seeing a reduction in both B.1.1.7 and non-B.1.1.7 cases.
2/9 While we continue to see the rapid decline of non-VOCs/VOIs, the competition between B.1.1.7 & B.1.526 is quite interesting, and could have significant public health importance. Currently B.1.1.7 is "winning", though things could rapidly change as more people get vaccinated.
3/9 For the first time we saw B.1.1.7 π from TaqPath data, which could mean that it is slowing down (it has to at some point). Below I also plotted the B.1.1.7 frequency estimates from our sequencing data, which has tracked with TaqPath and importantly still shows B.1.1.7 π
3/6 We predicted that B.1.1.7 would become dominant in CT in our recent paper led by @tdalpert, @AndersonBrito_, & co. However, we thought that this would have happened earlier in March. The slowdown of B.1.1.7 was likely due to the rapid rise of B.1.526.